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Archive for May, 2009

Top 08-09 Moments: Vince Carter’s Buzzer Beating Dunk vs. Raptors

May 11th, 2009 2 comments

With the offseason continuing and stuff slowing down, every once in a while I am going to posting some of the top moments from the past season.

This play is from the same game where Vince hit the buzzer beater to send the game into overtime, and despite Lawrence Frank’s usual boring play calling towards the end of games this one was actually quite good.  A great play where Vince sets the pick and the rolls off of it for a wide open alley-oop.  Awesome play.

This is the only post you are going to get from me today.  Sorry for the slowdown in activity the past couple of days, but we will be back on a daily schedule tomorrow.

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Top 08-09 Moments: Vince Carter’s Three Pointer Against The Raptors

With the offseason continuing and stuff slowing down, every once in a while I am going to posting some of the top moments from the past season.

This moment is brought to you by Vince Carter.  Not only is it a huge buzzer beater to send the game into overtime (where we get another top moment), but it is against the Raptors, VC’s original team.  That had to feel great, I mean just look at his reaction at the end:

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Looking At Yi And Bobby

Ben Couch, the great blogger/reporter for NJNets.com put out two great articles out, one about Yi and one about Bobby Simmons.  In each, there are some interesting quotes.

Couch’s Yi article talks about how Yi was about to break out before the injury:

In the middle of January, Nets forward Yi Jianlian shot his way into a hot streak, launching 38 shots in three games despite connecting on only 13 of them, finally breaking through on January 5 with and 8-of-14 shooting performance, part of a 22-point, 13-rebound, three-assist, two-block final line against the Sacramento Kings.

And he followed it up two days later, dropping 20 points (7-13 FGs), six boards, three assists, two steals and a block on the Memphis Grizzlies. The outburst marked the first time in Yi’s two-year career that he had scored 20-or-more points in consecutive games.

Two days after that, Yi was at it again: 25 minutes into the Nets’ matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, the big had tallied 16 points, four rebounds and two assists while shooting 3-of-4 from three-point range and 6-of-12 overall. But late in the third quarter, Yi swiped at a ball on defense and broke the pinkie finger on his (right) shooting hand.

Couch then goes on to talk about what the offseason looks like for Yi.  I encourage you to go on and read it.

In the Bobby Simmons article, Ben Couch talks about how Simmons developed into a terrific three point shooter (5th best percentage in the NBA).   Included is this quote:

“I never thought of that (being possible), I never knew my role was exactly going to be ‘shoot three-pointers.’ As far as looking at it now, you want to be the best at what you do, and if it was making shots for our team and our ballclub to win games, that’s what I wanted to do.”

That last part of the quote excites me.  He is still comitted to helping the Nets win, even though his playing time has been inconsistant.  Many people (including myself) have considered the biggest thing Simmons does for the Nets is that he is an expiring contract.  I am looking forward to seeing Bobby prove me wrong.

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Just For Fun: Kenny Smith’s Where Amazing Happens Video

TNT’s Inside The NBA is great.  They give great analysis, but they also like to joke around and bust balls.   Kenny Smith has been on the recieving end lately, and the crew put together an awesome “Where Amazing Happens” playoff video:

Good stuff.

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How Does The Draft Lottery Work?

ping-pong

It is about time we start concentrating on the draft, I wanted to get to all of this stuff a lot sooner, but with the whole Lawrence Frank saga, this stuff took a back seat.

The Draft Lottery.  It is an interesting and widely known concept, but many people are still confused about how it works.  For example, only the first three picks are determined by the lottery, the other 11 are based on record.  So for the Nets, we have 7 possibilites:

  • The 1st pick – we get this pick by winning the draft lottery.
  • The 2nd pick – we get this pick by coming in second in the draft lottery.
  • The 3rd pick – we get this pick by coming in third in the draft lottery.
  • The 11th pick – we get this pick if the top 3 teams based on percentage get the top 3 picks.
  • The 12th pick – we get this pick if 1 of the top 3 teams based on percentage don’t make the top 3 and one of the teams behind us get in.*
  • The 13th pick – we get this pick if 2 of the top 3 teams based on percentage don’t make the top 3 and two of the teams behind us get in.*
  • The 14th pick – we get this pick if 3 of the top 3 teams based on percentage don’t make the top 3 and all three of the teams behind us get in.*

So how are the top three picks determined?  Well, to determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations. Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.  Here are the number of combinations each team gets:

  1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
  2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
  3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
  4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
  5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
  6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
  7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
  8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
  9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
  10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
  11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
  12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
  13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties:

nets-odds

So we got a 2.9% chance to get a top three pick.  I like those odds…

*Thanks to newark hawk who made this little correction in the comments!

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Examining The Draft From A Nets Prospective

82games.com is a fantastic site.  If you are a stat-head and you don’t know about it, you probably sleep under a rock.  That, or you don’t have the internet.  Even though I am not too big of a stat-head (I am getting there though – reading Basketball On Paper by Dean Oliver), I still check the site pretty much every day.  That’s how I noticed their NBA Player Development “Mini-Series” which is really interesting.

Among the topics that they covered, Draft Performance by Year, Which College Conferences Deliver?, Performance of NBA drafted players by College, Best/Worst value picks, Best/Worst Drafting Teams, and Expected Performance by Draft Pick Number.  I am going to be taking a look at that last one.

Expected Performance by Draft Pick Number:

82 games uses the following formula to determine a players rating:

Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game

After that he then breaks down each pick into categories:

  • Star: 20+ rating
  • Solid: 15 to 19.9
  • Role Player: 10 to 14.9
  • Deep Bench: 5 to 9.9
  • Complete Bust: less than 5
  • DNP:  never played in the NBA

performance-by-pick

The possible picks we will be making are 14,13,12,11 or 1,2,3 (I will be getting to this later today).  Obviously we want to be in the later group.  Statistically speaking with a top 3 pick, we will be getting a contributor guaranteed (A role player is the worst case scenario).  If we pick where we will be more than likely picking, it turns into a crap-shoot pretty much.  The percentage of getting a bench warmer is almost the same as getting a contributor.

What does this mean?  Well, we need to be smart about our pick (sorta like last year).  Especially with the way the team is set up, we need someone who is going to be able to contribute right away.  We can’t be picking potential.  At least not this year.

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Keyon Dooling Had Surgery Yesterday

Yeah, I probably should have posted this yesterday, but I am still in this world of sick right now, and I didn’t get around to it.  Anyway, Keyon had surgery yesterday, and from the reports everything worked out ok:

Nets guard Keyon Dooling underwent arthroscopic surgery on his hip Monday at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan. Surgeons successfully removed loose bodies from Dooling’s right hip, which had bothered him throughout much of the second half of the season.

Despite the intermittent pain, the nine-year veteran had what he termed the best season of his career, averaging 9.7 points and 3.5 assists in 77 games. Dooling is expected to be ready in time for the start of the 2009-10 season, but his rehab will determine whether he’ll be on time for training camp.

Good news all around.  I had no idea he was battling this injury all year, and it is kind of amazing the type of production he had this year with the injury.   Here is hoping that he gets healthy and plays even better next year.

The only thing that scares me a little bit about this report is that he might miss some training camp.  Being that this is only going to be his second training camp with the team, I would want him to participate so he can get even more accustom to our system.

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Nets Are Scorching Interview – Dave D’Alessandro

Yup, it is another one of these interviews, I really think it is interesting hearing the take of the beat writers that follow the Nets.  They are around the team the most, and they really seem to know what makes a team tick (There are some questions in here about Lawrence Frank’s job, this was done before Lawrence Frank was brought back, I am just getting to posting it now).  In this edition, I sent a few questions Dave D’Alessandro’s way and he was kind enough to answer them.  Dave writes covers the Nets for The Star Ledger, you can find his stuff over at his blog on NJ.com called Nets Blast.

NAS:  Looking back on it, was the Richard Jefferson trade a complete failure?

No, I look at the RJ trade as a salary dump, because that’s what it was. If they could catch lightning in a bottle by turning Yi into a rotation player, then it’s a fair deal. But he’ll never be as good as Jefferson, and everyone knew that already. Remember that three-game stretch in January – 19 ppg, 7 rpg –  that everyone watched in slack-jawed amazement? Those were off-nights for Richard. Perhaps Yi gets his averages up to that level someday – I wouldn’t say it’s beyond the realm of possibility. And that will make some people say, “OK, not a terrible deal.’ And those are the ones with short memories. Even then, Yi cannot have the same impact on a game as RJ did – scoring, boarding, passing for profit, defending, competing, inspiring – and he never will.

NAS:  How impressed were you with the rookies this year?

Muy impresionado, senor. Getting three contributors in one draft? That’s extremely rare – someone ought to do the research to check the last time it happened with a team that kept its original picks (I’m not talking about getting Collins/RJ/Armstrong from Houston; I mean the original picks). Usually a team that keeps its multiple picks gets one really good player, another that sticks around for a bit, and a third that bombs. Kind of a Charles Barkley-Leon Wood-Tom Sewell thing.

NAS:  I think we got a diamond in the rough with CDR.  Do you think CDR can be a starter for the Nets someday?

Don’t know if he’s a starter, but he’s a player. And once he becomes a knockdown guy from 20 feet, he’ll be a very good player. I don’t think it makes sense to wish for a guy to be a starter – this phase is all about acquiring assets, and he can be a big one, especially if he shows that he can play multiple possessions.

NAS:  Would you consider the Nets season a failure?

Hardly. We thought all along that the best-case scenario would be 35 wins, and 34-48 doesn’t exactly burst the balloon. People are probably sick of hearing it, but Job 1 was developing the kids, and they succeeded in most cases.

NAS:  What is your opinion on Vince Carter?  Is he staying or going?

This isn’t a matter of opinion, it’s a matter of opportunity. If there’s a team out there that has some bad contracts it wants to dump that add up to $16M, and the Nets can sell it by suggesting there’s an asset in the deal that can help down the road without dropping them in the sewer in ’09-10, they’ll pursue it. If not, they won’t.

NAS:  Does Lawrence Frank need to go?  If so, who would you like to see replace him?

I’m old school on this. If you judge a coach on every facet of the job – and the game strategy which most fans are fixated on is only about 20 percent of it – you have to give him passing marks. Player development, role definition, preparation, game-planning, communication, attention to detail, temperament, accountability – he’s not good, he’s very good. And in the end, if they’re playing hard for him, that’s the only criterion to determine whether it’s time to make a change. The only area in which I have my doubts is with relationships. Don’t get me wrong – he hasn’t heard a hostile word since McInnis dogged his way out of town. But I wonder whether there are times when he may be too close to some of these guys. Yes, that’s the way it goes in big-time politics – your survival is often intertwined with how your best players feel about you. But I wonder if he is often too easy on some guys, because some of them need a roundhouse kick in the kaboose – I can’t tell you with any certainty, because I’m not allowed to watch the practice interaction. I do know this much, however: This is not the kind of self-motivated team he inherited in ’04 – it’s a very different group. As for a replacement, you know the deal: Management usually goes with a type that is the opposite in temperament, style, etc. It would have to be a defensive guy – a Skiles type, but he’s otherwise engaged. Van Gundy is probably going to stick with TV for the time being. I’ve always wondered what a guy like Adelman would do with this group. Thibodeau would be great, but he’s not exactly the most engaging interview. And Eddie Jordan would be fine, but he’s not exactly a defensive coach. And there’s nothing that I just said that Thorn hasn’t thought about for hours at a time, which is why I think he’s going to bring Frank back.

NAS:  Do you see the Nets going after any free agents?

Not likely. The payroll is already as low as it can go, but ownership actually wants it to go lower, regardless of what Bruce has been saying. If they can pick off somebody for half the midlevel, however (Bass? Kleiza?), Rod can probably sell it.

NAS:  What do you think the Nets are going to do draft wise?

Haven’t looked it yet. And I’m happy to report that they haven’t any idea what they’re going to do draft-wise either, other than keep their fingers crossed that there’s a space-and-glass eater available down at 11, because all they know right now is that Griffin/Rubio/Thabeet are top 3 and everything else is a muddle.

NAS:  Yi.  Do you think he will be on the team next year?  If so, is he just going to be riding the pine?

Did you really say “riding the pine?” You know they actually sit in cushy chairs now, right? Yes, he’ll be on the team next year, because his trade value is nil. And he’ll be a sub unless he comes to camp 10 pounds heavier, 10 times more confident in his shooting stroke, twice as strong, far more willing to take a hit and finish, automatic with his face-up move from the elbow, 20 times more willing to take on a defensive challenge, and generally pissed off at the world for laughing at him over the last two months of ’08-09.

I just wanted to thank Dave again for taking the time to answer my questions.  It was interesting reading his answers and getting his take on these topics.

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