Looking (Using Advanced Statistics) At The Vince Carter Trade – Part 1
Jul 31, 2009 2009 Offseason, Advanced Statistics, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, Ryan Anderson, Tony Battie, Trades, Vince Carter
It has been just over a month since the Vince Carter trade and now that the emotion of losing Vince is gone, I think it is a good time to look at the trade from a statistical point of view. By using a couple different formulas, we are going to be able to see if the Vince Carter trade benefits us, hurts us, or if it just comes out a wash.
How are we going to do this? Well, I have been reading through the great book Basketball On Paper (A must read if you are even remotely interested about advanced statistics in basketball), and the stuff I am learning makes me just want to learn more. During a Google search, I came across this case by the books’ author Dean Oliver (who now does this kind of stuff working for the Denver Nuggets). The case discusses whether or not the Hornets should trade away Rex Chapman to the Cavs. The end decision in the case is yes, and I am going to go through the case using the pieces of the Vince Carter/Ryan Anderson for Courtney Lee/Tony Battie/Rafer Alston trade.
Yi Playing Well Over In China
Jul 30, 2009 Nets Overseas, Yi
The guys over at Netsdaily.com have done a great job following Yi’s games over in China as he replaces Yao on the Chinese National Team. Two games in, Yi has really been impressing. Both games, warm-ups for the FIBA Asia Tournament, were against a group of all-stars from the Australia’s National Basketball League. In game 1 Yi dropped 30 on the All-Stars but only had 3 rebounds. In game 2, the scoring went down a bit, but the rebounds went up a ton. Yi dropped 20 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in Team China’s 1 point win. He is not only grabbing boards (which is something he wasn’t doing at all last year), but Yi apparently is being very aggresive attacking the basket.
Now with the rumors of a Big Baby for Yi deal simmering down, it is looking like we will be keeping him. If that is the case, it is good to see him playing well. Especially with him coming off an injury that really hurt his development last year. I know he isn’t playing against the greatest competition right now (In my opinion it would have been a bigger story if he didn’t play well), but he is under a lot of pressure to perform with Yao not playing next year at all. Maybe realizing that he is going to be the most recognizable Chinese-born player playing in the NBA was the kick in the butt that he needed to get everything to click?
Tags: Nets Players Overseas
Reader Poll: Do You Want To See Forums?
Jul 30, 2009 Reader Polls
Sorry about all of these site-related posts so far today, but I wanted to get the readers’ opinion on this one (mainly because you are the guys who will be using the forums if they are implemented). I have a forum all locked-and-loaded, all I need to do is make it public right now. Before I do that, I want to see if the readers want a forum, because if not, it will look empty and stupid. Anyway vote away!
If you want to vote for something not in the list, leave it in the comments. Thanks guys!
A Small But Important Change To The Site
Jul 30, 2009 Updates
I love the theme that I am using for this site, but the biggest problem has been linking to other sites. Whenever I would put a link in one of my posts, you couldn’t really tell, because the hyperlink color was practically the same as my regular font.
Well today I decided to fix that. From now on, any link in my posts will be bold. So if you see bold, it is fair game and you should probably give it a click because I only link to real good stuff.
I made a post about this because I want to get your opinions. Does it look/work better this way? Should I change it back? Let me know in the comments.
Raptors Republic Looks At Antoine Wright
Jul 29, 2009 Antoine Wright, Links, Sebastian Writing At Other Places
Remember Antoine Wright? Well, he became a Raptor over the summer, and the guys over at Raptors Republic asked me to write a little something about him. So I gladly did. You can find what I wrote over there. Also included in the post is a Mavericks’ take.
Oh and if you guys feel like it, head on over and leave your thoughts of Antoine in the comments. Just no spammy stuff like “Wright Suxxx!!!111!!,” keep the comment quality high like they are over here.
Today’s Big Baby Rumor
Jul 28, 2009 Bobby Simmons, Glan Davis, Keyon Dooling, Rumors, Trade Ideas, Yi
It is becoming more and more obvious that the Nets want Glen “Big Baby” Davis. First there was word that they were going to attempt to acquire him by signing him to an offer sheet, but word got out that the C’s were going to match any reasonable offer. Then there were rumors that the Nets were interested in a sign and trade, but looking at it, it wouldn’t really work out because we stuck with 15 guaranteed contracts right now. Now, we are hearing that the Nets are looking for a third team to work out a trade for Big Baby:
The Celtics’ proposed sign-and-trade to land free agent Marquis Daniels from the Pacers has run into complications and could lead to the need of a three-team deal. Enter the Nets, with their legitimate interest in Davis, who averaged 15.8 points and 6.0 rebounds during the playoffs last season. The Celtics have indicated they will match any reasonable offer for Davis.
“We have not made any offers to anybody,” Nets team president Rod Thorn said.
The Nets have made their inquiries and repeatedly have said they need to create a roster space before making a move. A report that surfaced yesterday about a sign-and-trade involving Davis and Nets forward Yi Jianlian was shot down by both sides about 30 seconds after it sought traction.
Maybe an inventive deal could be devised involving three teams. The Nets have a couple of trade exceptions from the Vince Carter deal that could come into play. The Celtics likely want a big man in return, the Pacers want a wing.
Despite what Rod Thorn says, this looks more than just “inquiring” about Glen Davis to me. Why? Well, Rod Thorn keeps looking for a way to get Davis in a Nets uniform. Despite being unconventional, this three-way deal could work (especially with the Trade Exceptions we have). We send Indiana a guard (Dooling/Simmons/Rafer), Boston Yi, and we get Big Baby in return with an extra roster spot.
Now is this smart? In my opinion it would all depend what we do with that extra roster spot. Now if we go ahead and sign Leon Powe or Ike Diogu, I would be all about it. Just like that we get a nice little inside/outside platoon at our 4 spot and we also clear up some of the glut we got at the wing position.
Not sure if this will happen or if this means there will be another rumor tomorrow. At least it is giving me something to write about…
More Praise For Brook And Devin
Jul 27, 2009 Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Nets In The Media
SI.com’s NBA writer Chris Mannix has just posted his write-up from USA’s Las Vegas minicamp, and like John Schuhmann, his piece included praise for both Devin Harris and Brook Lopez:
Devin Harris: Harris was the most vocal player in camp and showed flashes of the skills that made him an elite defender in Dallas. Harris is ultra quick on offense but the lack of range on his jump shot may inevitably hurt him.
Brook Lopez: The most offensively-skilled center in Vegas, Lopez was impressive in the scrimmage, scoring 18 points on an economical 7-8 shooting. Lopez didn’t get a lot of touches in practices; but if he takes another step forward next season (Lawrence Frank said he plans to make Lopez a big part of the offense in ‘09-10), he could emerge as a dark horse candidate.
Devin Harris playing defense? I know most Nets fans will be surprised to see that, but if Devin can get back to playing defense like he did in Dallas, he will become a complete player. Also, I have been reading everywhere that Devin was very vocal during this minicamp. It looks like the Nets found their new leader, and that Devin has already embraced the role. Oh and reading that Brook will be featured more in the offense (it makes sense, there are going to be a lot more shots avalible to other players now VC is gone) makes me smile.
It is real good to see some Nets get praise in the media. Mannix still has both Nets listed in his “The possibilities” category, and I agree with Mannix when he says that this upcoming season will be key for both players when it comes to making the US Team. If they both play well, it is quite possible that the Nets will have two members on the National Team.
Big Baby Coming To NJ Via Sign And Trade?
Jul 27, 2009 2009 Offseason, Roster Moves, Rumors, Trade Ideas
Update: Fred Kerber is reporting that both sides are denying the rumor:
There are reports that the Nets
and Celtics are working on a sign and trade for Glen “Big Baby” Davis and that it could happen real soon with the Nets surrendering Yi Jianlian.
That’s news to both sides.
People in Boston and New Jersey both squashed the notion. Nets insiders confirm that there have been inquiries about Davis “to see what’s up and what they’re looking for,” one source said. Both sides insist they have not been working on a sign and trade.
The on again off again Glen “Big Baby” Davis rumors are once again heating up, but this one is a little different. There are many reports coming out of Boston (nothing out of NJ papers/blogs yet) saying that the Nets are thinking about moving a player for Big Baby in a sign and trade. Justin Poulin who runs CelticStuffLive, says that the move is “close to a done deal.” There is no word on who the player the Nets would be shipping to Boston is, but Tom Halzack from the CT Post says gives us three names he thinks it is narrowed down to; Yi Jianlian, Eduardo Najera, and Sean Williams:
It could be Yi Jianlian for Baby straight up, as Alex suggests. The Nets have been hot and cold on him since they got him. They know he needs playing time to develop, but even on a rebuilding team, he wasn’t getting consistent minutes. While many will debate who is the better player, it will be swapping a lottery pick for a second rounder.
Before everyone thinks it’s a complete coup, remember the rumors were Yi would be a Celtic now, if the Celtics didn’t trade the pick as part of getting Ray Allen. But getting him back with a second round pick is savvy on Danny’s part anyway – unless you think that Davis will be the better player over his career.
Davis has better inside numbers, though Yi is a better outside shot. Yi has shown some ability to be a passer, and is athletic, but has zero post game (.465 eFG% inside).
The other option would be hard working, but oft injured energy guy, Eduardo Najera, possibly straight up, or possibly with a second rounder throw in. Even more remote, Sean Williams and Eddie together. Their salaries are $4.7 combined. Eddie’s recovered from sports hernia surgery on March 13, and is playing ball for Mexico in the FIBA Americ’a Cup.
I like Najera. With limited skills, he plays a nice game around the hoop, is a team guy, and will try to do anything you ask of him. A bad jump shooter (.321 eFG%), he’s strong around the hoop (.657 eFG%) and offensive rebounds very well - 17.5% of all possibilities in last year’s injury abbreviated season (27 games).
Sean Williams – If the Cs get Sean and Marbury to go with Rasheed, I hope that Doc Rivers has a blood pressure machine near by. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at those practices. Williams has been considered an attitude problem. A terrific shot blocker, he has to learn to play the game. Kind of a 6? 10? Gerald Green, I’d guess. He is reported to not be more than 6? 9? either. After some D-league time and tough love with the Nets, maybe he’s going to mature. Maybe.
Saying that, he does bring a nice skill to a second unit. It is one skill that this Big Three version of the Celtics hasn’t had. A shot blocker on the second unit. But he could be POB all over again, if he doesn’t play team defense and so far…. he doesn’t.
If it’s Williams, there is either another player involved or a first rounder thrown in, I’d say.
There has been no mention of a third team involved. It’s straight Nets/Celtics deal.
In conclusion, I’d take any of the players mentioned in a fair deal. Yi is a project in my opinion. Najera would be a good Celtic right now. Williams – who knows.
I find it funny that Celtics fans are already trying to put a positive spin on a Big Baby/Yi deal saying that it is a lottery pick for a second rounder. While this is true, Big Baby in my opinion has shown that he could be a very solid player, and he has been consistent for the Celtics. Consistency is a word that has never been used for Yi, but if he eventually “gets it,” he still has a chance at becoming a great player.
Another name that could be in this deal that Tom didn’t mention is Keyon Dooling. He said the reason being that the C’s are probably going to end up re-signing Stephon Marbury. However, if the C’s want a real solid back-up point they should look up Dooling. With the addition of Rafer Alston to our roster, he has become expendable, and while he played great last year, he is coming off of surgery and he is getting up there in years. Now would be a perfect chance to get a high return for him. Plus if we get Big Baby for Dooling, we can have a pretty solid Big Baby/Yi split at the 4 spot, with Big Baby starting. Big Baby tends to get in to foul trouble a lot, so it would be nice to have Yi ready to go in for him if that does happen.
I wouldn’t understand why the C’s would trade for Eduardo or Sean Williams straight up (Eduardo is coming off of major surgery and Sean Williams has been a mental problem ever since he became at Net), so if we can get Big Baby for either of those guys, I would do it in a heartbeat. That being said, if I would have to guess right now, the deal would be Yi/Big Baby. Yi has been someone the Celtics have been looking at for a little while now, and it is a deal that both teams are in favor of.
2 Nets Make John Schuhmann’s Top Ten List
Jul 27, 2009 Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Nets In The Media
Yesterday, John Schuhmann took a look at the top 10 players that helped their stock during USA’s mini-camp over in Las Vegas. Devin made number 5, and Brook came in at number 9:
5. Devin Harris, PG, New Jersey
Showcase stats: DNPHarris turned his left ankle on Friday and was held out of the Showcase for precautionary reasons, but it’s relatively minor. Before the injury, he was right there with Rose in the first two days of practice and it wouldn’t be a total shock if he beat out the Rookie of the Year for the third point guard spot next year. One of the real veterans among the group, he showed leadership all week.
9. Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey
Showcase stats: 18 points, 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal, 7-8 fg, 1-1 3pt, 3-4 ftUntil Saturday, none of the four centers in camp had really distinguished themselves. Greg Oden defended the rim well, but two steps behind offensively. JaVale McGee and Anthony Randolph showed flashes, but got pushed around by the bigger guys. And Lopez just never got a rhythm going. But he did in the Showcase, benefitting from the penetration of his teammates, rolling to the basket well and finishing strong (he had two and-ones). When he didn’t play well earlier, it was often because he was hesitant with the ball.
It is good to see Devin being competitive with some of the top point guards in the league. I really think he has a shot to make the team next year as the third point, and if he does he could turn some heads.
As for Brook, it should have been expected that he would be hesitant early on. I mean he is a young guy playing on a real big stage. From what I read, he had a great game and the fact that he was playing well off of penetration is a good sign for Nets fans. This is because we are going to be using the dribble-drive offense, so Brook will have plenty of chances coming off of dribble penetration. It was good to see him go 3-4 from the line as well.
All in all, it was great to see the Nets players represent in Las Vegas. I know the national media likes to bash the Nets any chance they get, so it was good to see them get some props.
My Take On Ben Couch’s Interview With Kiki Vandeweghe
Jul 27, 2009 2009 Draft, 2009 Offseason, 2010 Offseason, Kiki Vandeweghe
Kiki Vandeweghe has been with the Nets for 18 months now, so Ben Couch decided to sit down with the Nets’ General Manager and ask him a few questions. It is broken down into two parts (part 1 and part 2 here) and it is a great read for any Nets fan. Ben Couch also put together a complete list of all the moves Kiki has been involved in. Ben asked some great questions, and some of Kiki’s answers really got my wheels spinning (These are bits and pieces from Kiki’s answers. Again to see the complete answers check out Part 1 and Part 2 of Ben Couch’s interview):
NJNets.com: Looking back at the past 18 months, how do you feel about where the team is now — and where it could go — relative to its position when you joined back in December 2007?
It’s difficult to replace great players, but our players were getting older. And in 18 months, we’ve gone from a sort of older team that did not have any cap flexibility and no real good way to improve to a team that has four or five really good young players who can play together for a long time, great cap flexibility – probably as much or more than anybody in the league – some extra draft picks. We also lowered the cost of the team and moved all the real big long-term contracts. We’ve got shorter term contracts at lower numbers, which is where you need to be if you want to improve, so I would say we’re as well-positioned as anybody in the league to improve in a very short time.
I like our young players very much: Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Jarvis Hayes, Yi Jianlian, Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Terrence Williams and Josh Boone, who are all young and all have big upside; they’re good players now, but they can continue to improve. I like our veteran group: Rafer Alston, Eduardo Najera, Keyon Dooling, Bobby Simmons, the addition of Tony Battie, Trenton Hassell. I like our group, we’ve got a nice mix of players.
Improving in these challenging economic times, it’s about flexibility, and I would say we’ve got as much flexibility as anybody. We’ve done a 180 and we’ve done it about as quick as I’ve seen it done. And it’s been great working with Rod — I’ve learned a ton already. It’s a tremendous opportunity for me to be a part of this. To me, the way I personally look at it, the real work begins now because you’ve created the opportunities to improve. Now you’ve got to take advantage of those opportunities: you’ve got to use your extra draft picks wisely, you’ve got to use your cap space wisely. That doesn’t come around all the time. But these are opportunities and I think that if history is any indicator, with rod and myself, we’ll be able to do some good things.
I know that fans want their teams to be competitive every year, but it is the GM’s job to pay attention to the future. Kiki is a great GM that understood Nets weren’t going to reach their ultimate goal with the current roster they had, so he (along with Rod Thron) decided to rebuild. It is also comforting to know that Kiki and Rod don’t think the job is done, and that there is work to do. I think they have made a ton of great personel decisions so far (I still think we have the best young core in the NBA), and I hope they continue to draft well for the next couple of years and add that one free-agent who will be able to put us over the top.