Scouting the East: Toronto Raptors

Team: Toronto Raptors
Last Year’s Record: 33-49 (4th, Atlantic Division)
Head Coach: Jay Triano
Comings: DeMar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright, Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, Reggie Evans, Jaerrtt Jack and Radho Nesterovic.
Goings: Anthony Parker, Jason Kopano and Roko Ukic.
Bloggers Talk: Scott Phillips of Raptors Republic:
“What are my expectations of the Raptors this season? Balls out. Chris Bosh is the face of this franchise, is a top 12 player in the league, and is entering a decision-making year. GM Colangelo has gone out and spent millions to put pieces around Bosh but at the same time has protected us from the evil of CB4 leaving this team. Rebounding will continue to hurt us, as will perimeter defense and we will have to continue to outscore opponents rather than stop them.”
Raptors Republic on the Nets:
“I truly like the Nets, especially without Raptor-Killer Carter. I think TWill will surprise some people and CDR will have a solid season if he keeps his mind in the game. Having Rafer worries me as he was a loose cannon in Toronto and could hurt the locker room. You guys will defend the hell out of every team you face but struggle to score against most teams. I think the Nets finish 12th in the conference.”
Comparing the Starters:
Starting PG – Jose Calderon (12.8 ppg, 8.9 apg, 18.8 PER) vs. Devin Harris (21.3 ppg, 6.9 apg, 21.65 PER): One of the better point guards in the league, Calderon was second only to New Orleans’ Chris Paul in the John Hollinger metric pure point rating. Calderon also had one of the highest assist ratios in the league – which measures the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. He’s a very accurate jump shooter, shooting over 40 percent from three-point land and more than 45 percent on long twos. He takes shots inside the paint 19 percent of the time, but had an effective field goal percentage of .764. He had an amazing year from the free throw line, shooting 98 percent last year. A hamstring injury limited his defense last year.
Advantage: Even. By importing Hedo Turkoglu, the Raptors have gien Calderon another target in the passing game and it may also allow him to spot up for more three-pointers, increasing his scoring average. Devin is the better scorer, but Calderon is the better passer and pure point guard. Thus, let’s call it a drawn.
Starting SG – Marco Belinelli (8.9 ppg, 2.1 apg, 11.86 PER)) vs. Courtney Lee (8.4 ppg, 1.2 apg, 10.78 PER): Coming over from Golden State, Belinelli has one thing going for him – he’s a good three-point shooter (.397 percent last year), which fits in well with the Raptors offense. However, his game suffers at almost every other level. He has a poor turnover rate and rebounding rate for a shooting guard and seems to lack athleticism. He has a decent steal rate, and he held opposing SGs to 15.0 PER last year, which is average, but as John Hollinger nots, “he can’t challenge shots and was middling at best in terms of stopping penetration.”
Advantage: Nets. While Hollinger may not be totally sold on Lee, I think he’s at least better than Belinelli who’s as one-dimensional as it gets. Lee is a bonafide defensive stopper, a decent shooter who’s more apt to take it inside.
Starting SF – Hedo Turkoglu (16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 14.82) vs. Jarvis Hayes (8.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 10.85 PER): Turkoglu got a big payoff in the off-season, but he saw a sharp drop-off in his production from 2007-08, probably his career season, and last year. His PER was below league average, his shooting dropped more than 40 points along with his rebounding and assist average per 40 minutes. Still, Turkoglu comes with a unique skillset for a forward. He’s a good ballhandler and a decent spot-up shooter. On the defensive end, opposing small forwards were held to a .480 effective field goal percentage.
Advantage: Raptors. Turkoglu may have been overpaid by Toronto, but he’s still one of the more unique talents in the NBA. His five-year deal will probably be a nightmare for the Raptors when he hits his mid-30s, but for the 2009-10 he’ll bring more to his team than Jarvis Hayes will likely bring to the Nets.
Starting PF – Chris Bosh (22.7 ppg, 10 rpg, 22.19 PER) vs. Yi Jianlian (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 10.98 PER): Bosh is another elite power forward in the NBA, He has speed, agility, can shoot well for a big man, rebounds and blocks shots. There are some red flags forever. After a strong November, Bosh had a three-month span where he averaged below 20 points and 9 rebounds, and many analysts were questioning his intensity. His PER and True Shooting percentage were the lowest they’ve been since 2004-05. Another thing to consider this season is Bosh can opt out of his contract. If the Raptors fall out of contention early, he could be traded to a team that has a lot of cap space at the end of the season to resign him. You know. A team such as the Nets.
Advantage: Raptors. Bosh is an elite power forward and Yi is not.
Starting C –Andrea Bargnani (15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 14.66) vs. Brook Lopez (13.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 17.94 PER): Bargnani put together his first solid season last year, though his PER was still below average. He was a slow starter, playing his way out of the starting lineup for a while, before turning it on in the second half of the season to achieve career highs in points, three-point percentage, field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks. Bargnani likes to shoot a lot for a big man. He attempted 291 three last year, good for a .409 percentage. Bargnani’s biggest weakness stems from his lanky frame. His rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds, was dead last for centers. Opposing centers put up a PER of 21.1 when Bargnani was on the court.
Advantage: Nets. Bargnani is a great shooter for a player his size, but he’s nowhere near as physical as Lopez which is a necessity in the league. And despite putting together his best season in three years, Bargnani’s PER was under league average while Lopez had a PER near 18 right out of the gate of his career.
Bench: Jarrett Jack put together a solid campaign in Indiana last season and is a good back-up to Calderon. Rookie DeMar DeRozan could find his way into the starting lineup at some point this season. Old friend Antoine Wright is a good defender but a lousy shooter for a wing. Amir Johnson played himself out of the starting lineup in Detroit, but Hollinger thinks he could rebound in Toronto as a backup, projecting his PER to be around 16 because of his rebound and block rates. Rasho Nerterovic is a decent shooter and averaged more than 15 points per 40 minutes.
Advantage: Even. The Nets appear to have an answer at nearly every backup position and may even have a little more depth at the point. Nesterovic is better than any of the bigs on the Nets bench, but with guys like DeRozan and Johnson, a lot of their success is based on projection and potential.

I've watched both teams rather closely (bless the man who invented satellite television) and I have to give the advantage to Bargnani, but hear me out: It's not necessarily due to the talent or potential of either, it has to do with the style of play of the teams.
When the Raptors play their game, it's a very wide open style with lots of opportunity for the centre and power forward to be at the free throw line extended or beyond, and that suits Bargnani's game very well offensively. Chances to shoot a lot or if he's got a slower centre on him his ball handling is good enough he can drive the lane.
Defensively, the Nets lead opposing guards into the middle where Lopez gets a chance to show off his physicality and in general brute manhood. And with quick guards like Harris being able to steal the ball so efficiently he can use those advantages to just stall the offensive player while the guards are adding pressure.
This might seem like a very PC answer, but I think both players have a great upside to them. Andrea has the potential to be like Dirk, a former MVP (despite that Finals debacle); not saying he'll necessarily be MVP, but a guy with similar numbers. While Lopez has the potential if he keeps improving at the rate he's going to be like David Robinson, though again, not saying he'll necessarily be that calibre of player, but similar.
So where does the advantage to Bargnani come in? Well, on defence, you're always a seven footer. Since Bargnani has the advantage offensively in the system they're in, and he'll always have the innate advantage over other players that Lopez has (being 7 feet tall), he'll invariably get blocks and rebounds. If you remember, at the end of last season Bargnani averaged more than 2 blocks a game, really adding on the defencive intensity. And with the added physicality of Reggie Evans in practice every single day, I can't imagine Bargnani not getting more scrappy.
As for the whole DeRozan / Bellinelli v. Lee debate, I'm almost sure coach Triano has said DeRozan will be starting, though only seeing limited action in the season until he really gets a feel for the NBA. It's really impossible to compare them at this point, since Lee had a great year in the system Orlando used, but this is a whole new system for him and being a young kid it might take him a while to get used to it; while at the same time DeRozan has never really played an NBA game. In either case, I'd have to give the advantage to Lee just because of pure experience and better footwork at this point. Though the athleticism nod definitely goes to DeRozan. It would be a rather interesting match-up to see on the court.
Power forwards is really no contest, so let's leave the very disappointing Yi out of this.
It's interesting when you mention the 3 spot you say Turkoglu has been overpaid. Living in Canada and only getting positive feedback on the raps, we never hear things like this but thinking about it now, you're probably right. But as for the immediate future, I'd say you're spot on putting him over Hayes. On both ends of the floor, at this point, Turkey-glue has the thumbs up.
The point guard debate really comes down to what you're looking for. If you want a great passer that won't turn the ball over and is not a liability elsewhere on offense: Calderon. If you want a lightning quick scorer that can get out on the break: Harris. So let's break it down a little: Calderon is coming back off of a hamstring injury and has yet to get his defensive timing back, so in the pre-season and the beginning of the regular season he might be getting burned a little, and it will be up to guys like Bargnani, Evans and Bosh to help out. Harris on defence isn't spectacular, but you rarely hear the wonders of defencive point guards and he does what the Nets want, go-go-go and score-score-score. Again, the defencive frontcourt of the Nets will be able to help out Harris should he get bumped around inside (which is where his defence is really lacking). Basically, I agree with the original assessment in saying it's a wash comparing the two.
Now here's where my gripe really comes in; bench's. WOW! First off let me say Raefer Alston is team cancer, while Jarrett Jack could start easily on many a competitive team in the East or West, with exceptions of some all-star guards like Chris Paul and Derron Williams. Given a chance to shine, I guarantee he could be great. Centres? Even Patrick O'Bryant (little known 7'1" Raptor project) could take on Josh Boone or Sean Williams, while Nesterovich could take on Lopez just as well as Bargnani. Power Forward: While Bosh won't be out that often, given his excellent conditioning, the defencive upside and hustle of Reggie Evans will just give the other huge amount of scoring talent outside of Bosh on the Raptors to shine. Battie? Hamilton? T. Williams? Give me a break. While the depth on the SF and SG spot isn't too deep (though I have hope for Antoine Wright, Amir Johnson, and ultra hops machine Sonny Weems), the Nets bench really doesn't compare. Raps have the advantage in shooting, defence, and athleticism in the 2 and 3 spots. Our only real downfalls are Marcus Banks and Quincy Douby... God their contracts are atrocious.
(sorry for the long comment)
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