Scouting the East: Toronto Raptors
by Mark Ginocchio
Oct 14, 2009 Scouting the East
Team: Toronto Raptors
Last Year’s Record: 33-49 (4th, Atlantic Division)
Head Coach: Jay Triano
Comings: DeMar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright, Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, Reggie Evans, Jaerrtt Jack and Radho Nesterovic.
Goings: Anthony Parker, Jason Kopano and Roko Ukic.
Bloggers Talk: Scott Phillips of Raptors Republic:
“What are my expectations of the Raptors this season? Balls out. Chris Bosh is the face of this franchise, is a top 12 player in the league, and is entering a decision-making year. GM Colangelo has gone out and spent millions to put pieces around Bosh but at the same time has protected us from the evil of CB4 leaving this team. Rebounding will continue to hurt us, as will perimeter defense and we will have to continue to outscore opponents rather than stop them.”
Raptors Republic on the Nets:
“I truly like the Nets, especially without Raptor-Killer Carter. I think TWill will surprise some people and CDR will have a solid season if he keeps his mind in the game. Having Rafer worries me as he was a loose cannon in Toronto and could hurt the locker room. You guys will defend the hell out of every team you face but struggle to score against most teams. I think the Nets finish 12th in the conference.”
Comparing the Starters:
Starting PG – Jose Calderon (12.8 ppg, 8.9 apg, 18.8 PER) vs. Devin Harris (21.3 ppg, 6.9 apg, 21.65 PER): One of the better point guards in the league, Calderon was second only to New Orleans’ Chris Paul in the John Hollinger metric pure point rating. Calderon also had one of the highest assist ratios in the league – which measures the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. He’s a very accurate jump shooter, shooting over 40 percent from three-point land and more than 45 percent on long twos. He takes shots inside the paint 19 percent of the time, but had an effective field goal percentage of .764. He had an amazing year from the free throw line, shooting 98 percent last year. A hamstring injury limited his defense last year.
Advantage: Even. By importing Hedo Turkoglu, the Raptors have gien Calderon another target in the passing game and it may also allow him to spot up for more three-pointers, increasing his scoring average. Devin is the better scorer, but Calderon is the better passer and pure point guard. Thus, let’s call it a drawn.
Starting SG – Marco Belinelli (8.9 ppg, 2.1 apg, 11.86 PER)) vs. Courtney Lee (8.4 ppg, 1.2 apg, 10.78 PER): Coming over from Golden State, Belinelli has one thing going for him – he’s a good three-point shooter (.397 percent last year), which fits in well with the Raptors offense. However, his game suffers at almost every other level. He has a poor turnover rate and rebounding rate for a shooting guard and seems to lack athleticism. He has a decent steal rate, and he held opposing SGs to 15.0 PER last year, which is average, but as John Hollinger nots, “he can’t challenge shots and was middling at best in terms of stopping penetration.”
Advantage: Nets. While Hollinger may not be totally sold on Lee, I think he’s at least better than Belinelli who’s as one-dimensional as it gets. Lee is a bonafide defensive stopper, a decent shooter who’s more apt to take it inside.
Starting SF – Hedo Turkoglu (16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 14.82) vs. Jarvis Hayes (8.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 10.85 PER): Turkoglu got a big payoff in the off-season, but he saw a sharp drop-off in his production from 2007-08, probably his career season, and last year. His PER was below league average, his shooting dropped more than 40 points along with his rebounding and assist average per 40 minutes. Still, Turkoglu comes with a unique skillset for a forward. He’s a good ballhandler and a decent spot-up shooter. On the defensive end, opposing small forwards were held to a .480 effective field goal percentage.
Advantage: Raptors. Turkoglu may have been overpaid by Toronto, but he’s still one of the more unique talents in the NBA. His five-year deal will probably be a nightmare for the Raptors when he hits his mid-30s, but for the 2009-10 he’ll bring more to his team than Jarvis Hayes will likely bring to the Nets.
Starting PF – Chris Bosh (22.7 ppg, 10 rpg, 22.19 PER) vs. Yi Jianlian (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 10.98 PER): Bosh is another elite power forward in the NBA, He has speed, agility, can shoot well for a big man, rebounds and blocks shots. There are some red flags forever. After a strong November, Bosh had a three-month span where he averaged below 20 points and 9 rebounds, and many analysts were questioning his intensity. His PER and True Shooting percentage were the lowest they’ve been since 2004-05. Another thing to consider this season is Bosh can opt out of his contract. If the Raptors fall out of contention early, he could be traded to a team that has a lot of cap space at the end of the season to resign him. You know. A team such as the Nets.
Advantage: Raptors. Bosh is an elite power forward and Yi is not.
Starting C –Andrea Bargnani (15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 14.66) vs. Brook Lopez (13.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 17.94 PER): Bargnani put together his first solid season last year, though his PER was still below average. He was a slow starter, playing his way out of the starting lineup for a while, before turning it on in the second half of the season to achieve career highs in points, three-point percentage, field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks. Bargnani likes to shoot a lot for a big man. He attempted 291 three last year, good for a .409 percentage. Bargnani’s biggest weakness stems from his lanky frame. His rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds, was dead last for centers. Opposing centers put up a PER of 21.1 when Bargnani was on the court.
Advantage: Nets. Bargnani is a great shooter for a player his size, but he’s nowhere near as physical as Lopez which is a necessity in the league. And despite putting together his best season in three years, Bargnani’s PER was under league average while Lopez had a PER near 18 right out of the gate of his career.
Bench: Jarrett Jack put together a solid campaign in Indiana last season and is a good back-up to Calderon. Rookie DeMar DeRozan could find his way into the starting lineup at some point this season. Old friend Antoine Wright is a good defender but a lousy shooter for a wing. Amir Johnson played himself out of the starting lineup in Detroit, but Hollinger thinks he could rebound in Toronto as a backup, projecting his PER to be around 16 because of his rebound and block rates. Rasho Nerterovic is a decent shooter and averaged more than 15 points per 40 minutes.
Advantage: Even. The Nets appear to have an answer at nearly every backup position and may even have a little more depth at the point. Nesterovic is better than any of the bigs on the Nets bench, but with guys like DeRozan and Johnson, a lot of their success is based on projection and potential.
October 14th, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Which pipe have you been sucking on? If you discount DeRozan as a prject and potential, then how do you not discount Lopez and make him better than Bargnani? Lopez was the only big man in a mediocre Net’s team last year. If you have been watching Bargnani’s numbers for nearly the last 3 quarters of the season, he had nearly Allstar numbers.
October 14th, 2009 at 12:33 PM
PER=Player Efficiency Rating..should be taken with a grain of salt (I should know…I studied statistics). There’s alot of intangibles (like defensive stats) it doesn’t take into account. All stats aside, putting my bias for the raps to the side, i think belinelli and lee are a wash. They both play similar styles and BOTh of them cannot defend bigger players (see Bryant in finals..if you think lee is a solid defender). Since Devin Harris is the Nets only all-star, I would have easily given him the nod over Calderon..especially since he can break guys’ ankles going to the basket with great speed. At the three and four, we have the advantage, no need to go into detail as to why. And at the 5, bargs is a much better player than lopez. Lopez’s offensive numbers and inflated on a poor team and even though bargnani is weak defensively..he has nowhere but up to go (he put on size this year and towards the end of last year was playing decent d). Basically, he’s got way more upside than lopez and at $10/mil a year, I think he would beat almost any centre in a comparison (of course unless it’s shaq or d12 who would dominate him in the post)
October 14th, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Also, how can you even compare the nets bench to the raps bench? Maybe last year we were even when we had guys like moon and kapono come off the bench. You’re comparing apples and oranges. Who’s your best bench player? battie? He hit the side of the backboard on a fade-a-way in pre season. We have as our second unit…Jack, Belinelli, Wright, Evans/Johnson, Nesterovic. That’s better than a lot of starting lineups!
October 14th, 2009 at 2:48 PM
ok ok, there is no way in hell bargnani is better than lopez. these pathetic little non-american centers who play like guards should not be centers at all. i agree with harris being better than calderon, but this statement comparing lee and belinelli is so false, “They both play similar styles and BOTh of them cannot defend bigger players (see Bryant in finals..if you think lee is a solid defender).” Bryant even admited that Lee frustrated him in the finals, so you cannot say that bellenili even compares…
October 14th, 2009 at 2:55 PM
What I find most interesting is I’m the only one around here defending Calderon. Just like him as a PG and he does a lot of stuff that Devin just can’t. But I bet if you ask every GM in this league who would they rather build a team around, Bargnani or Brook, a vast, vast majority will say Brook.
October 14th, 2009 at 3:18 PM
While Lopez will be a “good” player someday, there’s no way he can guard Bargnani on the perimeter. Whereas Andrea has probably a 50/50 shot of stopping lopez from scoring in the post..since his offense game is not as developed…that’s why I’m taking Bargnani…doesn’t matter whether he’s European..what are you saying? Jarvis Hayes is better than Turks just b/c he’s American? How ignorant Americans are. I do like Calderon (don’t get me wrong). He can pass much better than Harris..but overall (defensively and quickness) I have to give the edge to Harris (again no bias). Umm when did Bryant admit that Lee frustrated him? When he kept bodying him in the post? Or when he kept hitting fade-aways over him in the finals? Face it…with Carter in their lineup and Turkulgo out, Peitrus is your best perimeter defender…and I think Kobe will admit that.
October 14th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
I’ll ignore the hate against americans, but anyways this is a nets thread, not magic, so i dunno why you’re saying “Peitrus is your best defender” and kobe did say that and lopez is probably more agile then bargnani anyways, and lopez can defend on the perimiter and he can also hit jumpers, hes not just a post player
October 14th, 2009 at 4:29 PM
I’m a Raptors fan and a religious NBA fan. Here’s my breakdown:
Harris > Calderon (mainly because of D)
Lee> Belinelli
Turkoglu > Hayes
Bosh > Yi
Bargnani > Lopez
(why? because after Jermaine O’Neal got traded halfway through the season, as a starter with consistent minutes Bargnani averaged 18PPG/6REB on 45% 3pt shooting)
October 14th, 2009 at 4:40 PM
bhatt – appreciate your take on this. It’s funny how I think opinions players/teams shift when you watch them day in and day on. I like Devin a lot, but his defense has slipped a lot in recent years and his shooting percentages aren’t great. If the Nets had any scoring from their forwards, I would much rather have a guy like Calderon or Rondo running the point. Meanwhile, from watching Brook day in and day out, I believe the guy has amazing growth potential has a double-double guy with a versatile offensive game while looking at the #s and from the 4 times or so I see the Raptors every year, I view Bargnani as a one trick pony. To each his own I guess.
October 14th, 2009 at 5:16 PM
My only criticism; Belinelli won’t start at 2 for the Raptors. It’ll be DeRozan or Wright. I’d give the edge to DeRozan over Wright or Lee (even though I love Lee), just because he won’t be asked to do as much. Lee could find he’s in over his head.
And Lopez is definitely better on defense and around the basket, Bargnani is definitely better away from the basket. Bargs wins on offense and Lopez wins on defense. That said, if they were going head to head as someone already mentioned, Bargnani at least has a chance to defend him, whereas Lopez has virtually no chance of defending Bargnani. But I can’t fault anyone who said Lopez, kids gonna be good
October 14th, 2009 at 5:19 PM
Thanks Eric. Full disclosure: I used ESPN’s projected depth chart to figure out who’s starting where. I’m sure I’m going to miss a few linesup doing it this way, but at least it’ll be consistent somehow.
October 14th, 2009 at 5:23 PM
“Which pipe have you been sucking on? If you discount DeRozan as a prject and potential”
I like DeRozan i think he’s one of the better players in the 09 class but he’s not a proven commodity untill he’s played a full year in the pros there no telling how good he is. Either way he’s not in the same league as Lopez who seems like a lock for the all star team in a few years and who was one of the best rookies in a much stronger draft class. Personally I’d rate Lopez second only to Rose (sorry OJ))
Bargs is number 1 pick thats been disapointing he’s getting better but he’s been labeled a bust by many despite a good season (not fair really just the added preasure that comes with going nubmer 1.)) He certainly doesn’t have near the upside Lopez has. While Bargs is getting better is at a much slower rate than Lopez comparing three years here to one. There is no real flaw to lopez’s game he an above average defender with a great shot and post game. Bargs can shoot but has no realy post game and lacks the physical nature to play the position. I’d rate him bellow most of the leagues center. Lopez also is much more athletic than
Also Batie is one of the weaker member of the nets bench ((refer to the summers rumors abour him getting cut)) we have depth at serveral positions. As a nets I would also mention your reference to wright when talking about the strength. Granted he’s improved since leaving us but I think raptors fans tend to overrate him. I love that VC gets brought into the discussion still getting no lover from the raports anyway.
On the harris discussion Calderon’s a better passer than Harris but nothing else no comparison to Harris offensivly or defensivly if he gets back to the way he used to play ((lets not forget it only been one season in which he was really focusing on devolping his offense i don’t the few months with the nets as he was just adjusting to the team.))
Defending on the perimeter isn’t really the centers’s job but like I said Lopez is a solid defender. Finally on the Claderon issue offensivly he’s got a better shot than harris but he sturggles to get off which I think will be a problem for the raports next year although the issue has been improved slight with Turk there now. I still think a lot os guys on the raports have toruble creating their own shot. Even Bosh at times and Turk despite being a clutch he sturggled to get a shot attempt in the finals when they needed him to and a lot of his shot were assisted on last year meh just my random thoughts
October 14th, 2009 at 5:29 PM
Lopez better than Bargs eh? What pipe have you been sucking on? Harris is better than Jose… Harris has nobody to pass to… Marco probably wont start Derozan likely will…
October 14th, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Thank you Shea for that wonderful comment. (not sarcastic)
October 14th, 2009 at 7:27 PM
Thanks Jesse, ok Mux lets compare the years Lopez and Bargs have had at the end of the year. Though I admit I was a little harsh in my post (not in my evaluation of who is better) but when I said I’d rate below most of the leagues center I was thinking below most of the better center he’s certainly above average =/ I don’t really see Bargs as center anyway more of a lesser Dirk type forward.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:59 PM
I’ve watched both teams rather closely (bless the man who invented satellite television) and I have to give the advantage to Bargnani, but hear me out: It’s not necessarily due to the talent or potential of either, it has to do with the style of play of the teams.
When the Raptors play their game, it’s a very wide open style with lots of opportunity for the centre and power forward to be at the free throw line extended or beyond, and that suits Bargnani’s game very well offensively. Chances to shoot a lot or if he’s got a slower centre on him his ball handling is good enough he can drive the lane.
Defensively, the Nets lead opposing guards into the middle where Lopez gets a chance to show off his physicality and in general brute manhood. And with quick guards like Harris being able to steal the ball so efficiently he can use those advantages to just stall the offensive player while the guards are adding pressure.
This might seem like a very PC answer, but I think both players have a great upside to them. Andrea has the potential to be like Dirk, a former MVP (despite that Finals debacle); not saying he’ll necessarily be MVP, but a guy with similar numbers. While Lopez has the potential if he keeps improving at the rate he’s going to be like David Robinson, though again, not saying he’ll necessarily be that calibre of player, but similar.
So where does the advantage to Bargnani come in? Well, on defence, you’re always a seven footer. Since Bargnani has the advantage offensively in the system they’re in, and he’ll always have the innate advantage over other players that Lopez has (being 7 feet tall), he’ll invariably get blocks and rebounds. If you remember, at the end of last season Bargnani averaged more than 2 blocks a game, really adding on the defencive intensity. And with the added physicality of Reggie Evans in practice every single day, I can’t imagine Bargnani not getting more scrappy.
As for the whole DeRozan / Bellinelli v. Lee debate, I’m almost sure coach Triano has said DeRozan will be starting, though only seeing limited action in the season until he really gets a feel for the NBA. It’s really impossible to compare them at this point, since Lee had a great year in the system Orlando used, but this is a whole new system for him and being a young kid it might take him a while to get used to it; while at the same time DeRozan has never really played an NBA game. In either case, I’d have to give the advantage to Lee just because of pure experience and better footwork at this point. Though the athleticism nod definitely goes to DeRozan. It would be a rather interesting match-up to see on the court.
Power forwards is really no contest, so let’s leave the very disappointing Yi out of this.
It’s interesting when you mention the 3 spot you say Turkoglu has been overpaid. Living in Canada and only getting positive feedback on the raps, we never hear things like this but thinking about it now, you’re probably right. But as for the immediate future, I’d say you’re spot on putting him over Hayes. On both ends of the floor, at this point, Turkey-glue has the thumbs up.
The point guard debate really comes down to what you’re looking for. If you want a great passer that won’t turn the ball over and is not a liability elsewhere on offense: Calderon. If you want a lightning quick scorer that can get out on the break: Harris. So let’s break it down a little: Calderon is coming back off of a hamstring injury and has yet to get his defensive timing back, so in the pre-season and the beginning of the regular season he might be getting burned a little, and it will be up to guys like Bargnani, Evans and Bosh to help out. Harris on defence isn’t spectacular, but you rarely hear the wonders of defencive point guards and he does what the Nets want, go-go-go and score-score-score. Again, the defencive frontcourt of the Nets will be able to help out Harris should he get bumped around inside (which is where his defence is really lacking). Basically, I agree with the original assessment in saying it’s a wash comparing the two.
Now here’s where my gripe really comes in; bench’s. WOW! First off let me say Raefer Alston is team cancer, while Jarrett Jack could start easily on many a competitive team in the East or West, with exceptions of some all-star guards like Chris Paul and Derron Williams. Given a chance to shine, I guarantee he could be great. Centres? Even Patrick O’Bryant (little known 7′1″ Raptor project) could take on Josh Boone or Sean Williams, while Nesterovich could take on Lopez just as well as Bargnani. Power Forward: While Bosh won’t be out that often, given his excellent conditioning, the defencive upside and hustle of Reggie Evans will just give the other huge amount of scoring talent outside of Bosh on the Raptors to shine. Battie? Hamilton? T. Williams? Give me a break. While the depth on the SF and SG spot isn’t too deep (though I have hope for Antoine Wright, Amir Johnson, and ultra hops machine Sonny Weems), the Nets bench really doesn’t compare. Raps have the advantage in shooting, defence, and athleticism in the 2 and 3 spots. Our only real downfalls are Marcus Banks and Quincy Douby… God their contracts are atrocious.
(sorry for the long comment)