Nets Are Scorching

One strange thing that I have noticed in terms of the Nets schedule is that they have played a pretty front loaded schedule.  The Nets are already playing their 6th game, while the Sixers are on their fifth.  Tomorrow will be their second home/away back-to-back game.  With all of the injuries, these games will probably really take their toll on the guys.  After Saturday though, we get three days off, so hopefully CDR can be back by then.  Speaking of that, it will be interesting to see where the team gets its scoring from, now that they have 3 opening day back-ups starting for them.  At the PF spot, look for a Najera/Boone/Sean Williams rotation, with one of these guys backing up Brook.  Thankfully, the Nets are short on SFs too, so Simmons should be playing there instead of at the 4.

Nets Starting Lineup

1. PG – Rafer Alston
2. SG – Courtney Lee
3. SF – Terrence Williams.
4. PF – Eduardo Najera
5. C – Brook Lopez

Sixers Starting Lineup

1. PG –  Louis Williams
2. SG - Andre Iguodala
3. SF - Thaddeus Young
4. PF - Elton Brand
5. C - Samuel Dalembert

Their Mismatches

Thaddeus Young vs. Terrence Williams – As the man on the forefront of the Terrence Williams bandwagon, it pains me to put Terrence Williams here for his first career start, but that is how it goes.  Thaddeus is bigger, heavier, and stronger than Terrence Williams, and he should have his way with him on the offensive end.

Our Mismatches

Brook Lopez vs. Samuel Dalembert – It is funny how things work.  A few years ago, Samuel Dalembert was an up and coming center in the weak east, and now he is one of the most over-paid centers in the NBA.  Brook Lopez can muscle up into Dalembert, get into his body, and negate his athleticism.  If Brook can fend off the double teams, he should have a big night.

Matchup Of The Night

Elton Brand vs. Eduardo Najera - Elton Brand and Eduardo Najera will battle in the “guys coming back from big time injury” matchup tonight.  I actually might like Najera’s chances tonight, considering, Brand won’t outquick or overathletic him, he will try to muscle Najera, and Najera loves that.

Keys To Victory

Make Shots - It seems simple, but the Nets haven’t been able to do it all year, and tonight, they are missing one of their best scorers in CDR.  If the Nets can make shots, they can score and open the court for Brook Lopez which makes them even better.

Run, Run, and Run some more - The Sixers aren’t too deep right now.  They only have 6 guys playing over 20 minutes per game, and after Marreese Speights, there best player is Jason Kapono.  While he is a great shooter, he’s not the guy you want being the second guy off the bench.  If we can get the Sixers tired or in foul trouble, the Nets have a better chance at winning the game.

Prediction

Current Prediction Record: 2-3

I was this close to picking the Nets here.  This close!  I don’t know why, but I think the Nets will rally together and go after this game, and pick up a win.  That being said, I picked the Sixers here.

Quick Programming Note

I will once again be chatting over at Daily Dime on ESPN.  I will be around here too, so feel free to chat here, but I would like to see some Nets fans take over ESPN tonight!

Game 6 vs. Philadelphia (2-2)

Projected Starting Lineup

1. Louis Williams | 6’1″ | 175 lbs. | 34.5 MPG | 17.0 PPG | 5.0 APG | 55.8% FT | 30% 3 | 81% FT

Not a pure PG, but somewhat effective when he is running the point.  Learning the position this year.  Looks to outquick defenders to get into the lane.  Solid albeit streaky shooter.  Must be physical with him.

2.  Andre Iguodala | 6’6″ | 207 lbs. | 38.5 MPG | 19.0 PPG | 6.0 APG | 48.3% FG | 30% 3 | 74% FT

Eddie Jordan’s two guard set will allow him to bring the ball up every once in a while, along with Lou Williams.  The 6.0 assists per game average this preseason shows he may be embracing that.  Super athletic, great finisher when he gets inside the paint.  Streaky shooter, if he starts hitting, we need to watch out.  Solid defender, gambles a bit…might be susceptible to back-door cuts.

3.  Thaddeus Young | 6’8″ | 220 lbs. | 28 MPG | 14.3 PPG | 3.3 RPG | 43% FG | 10% 3 | 82.4% FT

His size at the 3 spot allows him to be a tough physical banger inside.   Good shooter when given time, but if you contest, he is wildly inconsistent.  Not the best ballhandler on the team, so you want to close hard on him to make him put it on the floor!  Defensively, need to use speed to get by him, probably won’t be able to out-muscle him.

4.  Elton Brand | 6’9″ | 254 lbs. | 31 MPG | 11.8 PPG | 5.8 RPG | 45.9% FG | 0% 3 | 86.7% FT

A PF that likes to bang inside.  Must be physical with him and can’t let him catch it deep in the post.  Face up game is solid too, and he can hit from 10-15 feet.  Good passer, so you must be careful where you bring the double from.  Tough rebounder, must box him out!

5.  Samuel Dalembert | 6’11″ | 250 lbs. | 23.3 MPG | 8 PPG | 6.5 RPG | 47.6% FG | 0% 3 | 80% FT

Not really an offensive threat from outside of 10 feet.  Struggles to hit from inside 10 feet as well.  Slow feet.  Can be taken advantage of in the pick and roll set.  Great timing and shot blocking ability though, must pump fake him!  Terrific defensive rebounder.

Bench

F/C.  Marreese Speights | 6’10″ | 245 lbs. | 23.3 MPG | 14 PPG | 7.8 RPG | 60% FG | 0 3 | 82.4 FT

We should all be familiar with this guy from summer league.  Possesses a great athletic ability for his size, and when he is hitting his shot he is tough to stop.  Needs to take a lot of shots to put up his numbers.  Good shot blocker, you can pump fake him though.  He has shown to be foul-prone.

G/F.  Jason Kapono | 6’7″ | 215 lbs. | 19.5 MPG | 8 PPG | 1.8 RPG | 50% FG | 41.7% 3 | 84.1% FT

One of the league’s best 3 point shooters.  Has 30-foot range.  Need to stick with him and can’t help off of him.  Doesn’t do much besides shoot, so close hard and make him put it on the floor.

F.  Jason Smith | 7’0″ | 240 lbs. | 11 MPG | 1.7 PPG | 1.7 RPG | 16.7% FG | 33.3% 3 | 50% FT

Missed all of last year with a knee injury.  Can play either the PF or C spot.  Has a nice back to the basket game and a nice touch on his mid-range shot.

G/F.  Rodney Carney | 6’7″ | 205 lbs. | 10.3 MPG | 3.7 PPG | 1.7 RPG | 36 FG | 28.6% 3 | 50 FT

Carney can run and jump as well as any wing player in basketball, but he’s a poor ballhandler who lacks good instincts. His lack of feel reveals itself in the poor assist rate and his inability to get shots near the basket to take advantage of his superior finishing ability.  A real tough defender.

G.  Royal Ivey | 6’4″ | 215 lbs. | 10.3 MPG | 3.7 PPG | 0.7 APG | 71.4% FG | 50% 3 | 0% FT

Defensive specialist with no real offensive game to speak of.  Quick and athletic.  Very aggressive and can be caught on back-door cuts.  Tendency to foul a ton.

G.  Jrue Holiday | 6’3″ | 180 lbs. | 9.5 MPG | 3.5 PPG | 1.5 APG | 100% FG | 100% 3 | 0% FT

Wildcard.  Athletic and quick, but is an inconsistent shooter and he sometimes is a little loose with the basketball.

G.  Willie Green | 6’3″ | 200 lbs. | 9.5 MPG | 4.3 PPG | 0.3 APG | 27.8% FG | o% FT | 100% FT

Not a true point either, but the truest point on the Sixers.  If they struggle getting into the offense, Green will come in off the bench to try and settle things.  Hard worker on defense, but he lacks the quicks to stay in front of his man from time to time.

C.  Primoz Brezec | 7’1″ | 255 lbs. | No Regular Season Stats

Played in the Italian league last year.  Nice touch for a big man.  Slow and weak on the defensive end.

Offensive Tendencies:

One of the worst three point shooting teams last year.  Kapono helps, but he is the only 3 point shooting threat.  Must keep their 3 front-court off the glass on both sides of the court.  Must keep AI from getting hot.  Eddie Jordan will be implementing a Princeton-style offense this year.  Expect a whole lot of movement.

Defensive Tendencies:

A lot of aggressive athletic players who like to take chances.  Need to pump fake on both passes and shots.  Backdoor cuts can work against these guys too.

Keys To Victory:

Get Brook touches inside.  He can out muscle Dalembert and negate his athleticism.  Keep AI from getting hot.  Rebound!  Don’t let Elton Brand get position inside.  Close out on Kapono, make him put the ball on the floor.  Must always know where he is, he is the only one who can hurt the Nets from three.

Going into this season, one of my biggest fears was Yi not working out.  Then, I was worried because if he didn’t work out there wasn’t a whole lot of depth behind him.  For that reason, I was pretty relieved when I saw Yi playing well; knocking his shots down, playing better defense, and being more aggressive.  With the way the Nets season has been going so far, it only makes sense that he gets hurt.  Lawrence Frank now has to piece together a PF rotation, and as you guys probably know, I don’t really like the look of that.  The night of Yi’s injury, Bobby Simmons got most of the PF minutes (ew), but during the Nuggets game, Najera got most of the minutes and played pretty well.  Here are all of the active options at PF the Nets have on the roster, and what we can expect from them:

Bobby Simmons -

The Skinny

It is safe to say that the Bobby Simmons experiment has been a complete failure, but for some reason Lawrence Frank insists on playing him.  Bobby Simmons has logged a total PER of -2.85 (I don’t think this has ever happened before during the course of a season) through four games, and even he finally made a basket in the 5th game of the season.  Simmons’ true shooting percentage is a whopping 15.1%.  With all that being said, Simmons has been doing a solid jobs on the boards.  His defensive rebounding rate (the percentage of defensive rebounds he grabs during his time on the court) is at 23.4 when the league average is at 14.2.  This stat is probably the reason Lawrence Frank justifies playing him.

Bobby’s Style

As a 4, Bobby Simmons has relied completely on the outside game, which makes sense when you think about it because his true position is the 3.  According to HoopData.com, Simmons has only attempted 2 shots at the rim (making one).  The rest of them have been from 16 feet and out, going 1-10 on long twos and 0-7 on threes.  So when Bobby is on the floor at the 4, the goal is to use him to stretch out defenses, but that won’t happen until he starts making shots.

Josh Boone -

The Skinny

Josh Boone has played center most of his career in New Jersey, but now Boone is finally getting a chance to play at the PF spot.  It seems like it could work, Boone will probably be bigger than most of the 4s he goes up against, so when Boone and Lopez share the court, this could lead to some mismatches.  There is one problem though, the Nets need one of these guys to back-up Brook.

Josh’s Style

Boone’s style is the complete opposite of what Bobby Simmons’ style is supposed to be.  Boone is a inside presence, who has attempted 17 of his 20 shots inside of 10 feet.  He has shown a nice tough from the outside too this year (although it really isn’t showing in his foul shots), going 2-3 on shots from 10-23 feet.  As for his foul shots, he looks more comfortable at the line, and though it doesn’t show with the stats, he seems to improving at the line, which could go a long way in making him a productive player.

Sean Williams -

The Skinny

In the 3 games that Williams has played in this year, he has averaged 8.7 minutes, and he has put up solid numbers in those minutes.  He is tied for the team lead (with Brook) in True Shooting % with 61.0%.  He is still loose with the basketball, logging a Turnover Rate (percentage of possessions that end up with a turnover) of 32.79%, almost three times the league average.  He still crashes the boards hard (which is something that he has always done when on the court), coming up with a total rebounding rate of 14.9, 5 points higher than the NBA average.

Sean’s Style

Sean Williams’ style is straight out of the Chris Anderson mold.  He really gets the crowd going with his big blocks and big dunks.  He has shown to be a spark plug when he got on the court this year, which is different from past years.  He will probably be going in when the Nets’ offense starts to stall.

Eduardo Najera -

The Skinny

Najera has played in three games this year, and besides the Washington game where he was just overmatched by a more athletic Blatche, he has played the best out of all of the PF options the Nets have.  The biggest reason Najera has played so well is because he has kept his turnovers down.  Najera’s Turnover Rate was 4.23, which is about 1/3 of league average.  Add that to the fact that he always crashes the boards hard, and that he has a nice little touch, you shouldn’t be surprised that he has played pretty well.

Eduardo’s Style

Eduardo is a bulldog who can compliment that style with a nice outside touch if he is on.  Najera has taken 9 shots inside 10 feet and 7 outside of 16.  This balance gives defenses multiple looks, that forces defenses to have to guess what Najera is going to do.  That indecision can lead to some baskets for him.

So What’s Going To Happen

This is just an opinion, but I think Lawrence Frank is going to ride Najera’s good play until Yi gets back.  The rest of the rotation gets tricky.  While CDR is out with the flu, that means Bobby Simmons will get more minutes at the 3, and that means (thankfully) less minutes for him at the 4.  And while I like the idea of Boone and Lopez on the court at the same time, Lopez is going to need to rest at some point, and Boone is the only back-up option there.  So what does that mean?  At least tonight, the rotation at the 4 should be Najera starting with Sean Williams backing him up.  Boone will get minutes at the 4 too, but his main job will be backing up Brook.  Simmons main responsibility tonight will be backing up Terrence Williams who will probably be starting at the 3.   Taking all the situations into consideration, that is the best we can hope for, because I don’t know about you guys, but if I see Bobby Simmons at the 4 anymore, I am going to poke my eyes out.

It has been a long time coming, but Mark and I finally got together to record podcast #8, the first of the regular season.  In today’s podcast Mark and I discuss the injury situations, Lawrence Frank’s coaching decisions, Brook Lopez’s double teams, and whether or not the Nets will pick up a win in November.  Enjoy:

[display_podcast]

In a story that should relate to the Nets, our good buddy Frank Isola talks about how the Knicks are bummed out by all the speculation about LeBron James coming to the Knicks.

Over at the NetsDaily blog, there’s an interview between Basketball Pioneers and Rafer Alston which talks about Rafer’s concerns about the teams youth and inconsistent play.

I know there isn’t a Nets game or anything, but come over and enjoy the chat:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-091105

I will be there.  Is there anything more you can ask for?  Probably not.

The injury news around the Nets keeps getting comically worse.

First, Lawrence Frank told the beat writers today that Chris Douglas-Roberts, was experiencing “flu like symptoms” and will not be on the team bus down to Philadelphia for tomorrow night’s game against the 76ers.

As explained by Al Iannazzone in the Bergen Record:

The league policy – due to swine flu – is with flu-like symptoms a person has to be isolated for 24 hours, take tests, etc. Frank said they’re not sure if it’s a cold or the flu so Douglas-Roberts stayed back when the team bussed to Philly. There’s a chance he won’t be there tomorrow night.

Even if Douglas-Roberts wants to play through it, if it’s the flu he can’t.

This would leave the Nets with 9 healthy bodies for tomorrow night. Terrence Williams would likely get the call at the 3, while backing up Rafer Alston at PG.

There was also a status update on Devin Harris today, and it’s not looking good. His original 7-10 day prognosis was a wee bit optimistic and he’s now talking a return in two weeks, maybe longer.

As reported by Dave D’Alessandro in the Star-Ledger:

“It could take four weeks to heal,” Devo said. “If I come back in two weeks and I still feel it, I’m going to take the next two weeks. I’m hoping to be back in two weeks. That’s what I’m hoping for.

“We don’t have a date quite in mind. It comes down to when I come back I want to be completely healthy.”

With the way everybody’s injuries are lining, the Devin, Yi Jianlian, Jarvis Hayes and Keyon Dooling could all be returning together before the four game West Coast swing during Thanksgiving week. Granted with the injuries piling up, and the schedule not getting any easier, it’s quite possible the Nets could still be searching for their first win of the season by that point.

This season is officially becoming a nightmare and it’s barely started. I was lucky enough to suffer through a similar situation as a Mets fan this past summer, and trust me, this is not fun. There’s nothing more deflating than losing player after player to injury. And each one of these injuries seems to be so flukey and disconnected, it’s hard to really fault anyone on the team’s training staff, though I’m sure many fans are going to start looking for some kind of scapegoat.

What’s even more disconcerting is the bodies may not be done piling up. Not to be a pessimist, but Eduado Najera, our starting 4 by default right now, hasn’t exactly been the beacon of good health in recent years, and Rafer Alston is now on the wrong side of 30.

I’m trying to find the silver lining in all this right now, but I really can’t. If the Nets are going to build on anything this season, they need guys like Devin, Yi and CDR on the court, logging 30+ minutes a game. Guys like Jarvis Hayes and Keyon Dooling, whoprovide nice depth and veteran leadership, need to get into game action sooner instead of later. The Nets are being forced to play the back of their bench and they’re just not going to win games if this trend continues.

There’s still a lot of basketball season left, but that’s not going to stop teams from feasting on the Nets when they try to get healthy. If the team can’t find a way to gut out a couple of victories over the next two weeks, there’s going to be talk of this being a historically bad season in New Jersey. Even with the promise of a lottery pick and a new billionaire Russian owner, that can’t be good for the long-term needs of this organization.

Headed into the game last night with the undefeated Denver Nuggets coming into town, you just had to have a sinking feeling in your stomach about the Nets chances to pull out their first win of the season. Between the onslaught of injuries and just the overall poor fundamental play that has plagued the team in the season’s first four games, the Nets reminded me of a TV actor embroiled in a contract dispute with the producers headed into the season finale. As a viewer, you’re watching the show and waiting to see if the writers bump the character off, or keep them hanging around in some kind of open-ended way that suggests there could be a resolution over the summer if cooler heads prevailed.

The Nets last night made it through the first half of the show unscathed, and even looked like they could end the program conclusively on the winning side before getting smashed in a car wreck, thrown off a bridge, dropped into a burning building and shot 30 times by the explosive Nuggets offense. By the time the fourth quarter had started, with the Nuggets up by 17, it was pretty clear to me that the producers had made their decision about the Nets’ fate.

This is going to be a recurring theme with the Nets this season. They are yet to put four consistent quarters of play together. Maybe if they had, they wouldn’t be winless and off to one of their worst starts in franchise history. While the abomination known as Monday night’s third quarter against the Bobcats showcased how completely clueless the Nets could look on offense for long stretches, last night’s third quarter showcased their porous defense. With Carmelo Anthony struggling throughout most of the first half, it was clearly inevitable that he was going to hit his shots eventually. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were able ride Nene on the inside and Ty Lawson created havoc pretty much everywhere else. The Nuggets scored 44 points in that quarter and never looked back.
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