Courtney Lee Has Been Better As A Net
by Sebastian Pruiti
Dec 1, 2009 Advanced Statistics, Analysis, Courtney Lee
Disclaimer: Before we get started, this isn’t a post about Ryan Anderson. He will not be mentioned here, and I don’t expect to see his name in the comments. If you read this and still feel like telling me that Ryan Anderson is a better player, send me an e-mail, it is on the site. This is just an evaluation of Courtney Lee.
Onto Courtney Lee. The season is 17 games old. It is nearly a quarter over already, and I thought that now is as good as a time as any to take a look at Courtney Lee’s game. Oh and yes, I am in fact serious about the title by the way. Courtney Lee has been getting bashed by Nets’ fans for his poor performances, but I really do not know why. When I sit down and think about it, there are two reasons. The first, people tend to just look at the shooting numbers and the points. The second reason is that people have expected him to improve greatly from his rookie season right away (I fall into this group), not really taken into consideration he left a really good team where he was the 4th, 5th, or 6th option and went to a team that he is the third option where defenses focus on taking him away. Courtney taking Vince Carter’s (and in some fans eyes, being traded for him) roster spot probably has something to do with it too, no matter how unfair that is.
The numbers aren’t bias though, and what the numbers tell us is that if you exclude the shooting (don’t worry I have an explanation for this) Courtney Lee is doing everything else better than he was doing in Orlando. It isn’t because he is getting more minutes either. Through 11 games this year, Courtney is averaging the same minutes per game as he was in Orlando during the regular season (25.2 MPG).
All other data used in this post is from Hoopdata.com
Offensive Game:
All of Courtney Lee’s offensive numbers in terms of handling the ball have been better in New Jersey than it was in Orlando. Despite seeing his Usage % increase (albeit a small increase) Courtney Lee has been able to limit his turnovers. On the surface, it might not look at it (his Turnovers Per Game is at .8 vs. .9 last year), but if you look at the Turnover Rate (I tend to think of this as a more accurate metric because it measured the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover) those numbers show he has been taking much better care of the ball. Last year Courtney Lee was turning it over 9.29% of his possessions. As a Net, Courtney is only turning the ball over on 6.90% his possessions. To give you some perspective on this, the league average is 11.98%. In fact, Courtney is currently rated 14th in TOR of players playing at least 20 minutes per game. Also improved is Courtney Lee’s passing game. Not only are his turnovers down, but his assists are up. Lee’s assist rate (percentage of possessions that end in assists) has gone up from 12.39 to 13.04 that it is this season. When your turnovers go down and your assists go up, it is only natural for your assist to turnover ratio to go up. Add the fact that Lee has gotten to the foul line more often (his Free-throw rate has jumped from .17 to .39), and you have a lot of positives on the offensive end.
Defensive Game:
Courtney Lee was billed as a defender, and he hasn’t really disappointed on that end. Now there are no real advanced statistics out there, but the per-game stuff tells a pretty good story. Lee has seen his steals per game go up from .99 to 1.73 (league average is .76), his blocks go up from .19 to .55 this year, and his charges taken per game went up from .06 to .09. Lee’s defensive rating which is a combination of those three numbers is 2.36 this year, jumping from 1.25 last year (league average is 1.5). All of this while seeing his fouls per game go down from 2.0 per game to 1.7 per game from last year to this year.
So What’s Going On With The Shooting?
Back to what Nets’ fans have been pointing and looking at when it comes to Courtney Lee, his shooting. Before we continue, here is a chart I put together using HoopData’s numbers.
Courtney has seen significant drops at every spot except one (the 10-15 foot range). Now everyone was expecting a drop off when Courtney came to New Jersey because he would be taking more shots, and he would be seeing his usage increase. The thing is, for whatever reason, his shot attempts hasn’t really increased all that much (went from 7.0 to 8.1 per game) and his usage increased, but it still isn’t all that high (it has gone from 15.49 to 18.45 – the league average is 19.30). So what does that tell us? That Lee’s early season struggles are flukey more than anything else. I mean, like I have said a number of times, his form looks on point, and I can remember 5-10 shots that have gone all the way in and all the way out.
Also, another telling stat is the percentage of Courtney Lee’s makes that are assisted. Last year, 67.9% of Lee’s shots were assisted on. This year? 53.3% of Courtney Lee shots are dropped. That is a pretty significant drop off in my opinion. What does that mean though? It means one can assume that Lee is taking more shots off the dribble than he is just catching the ball and shooting it. Everyone who has played the game knows that it is a lot easier to catch the ball and shoot it rather than shoot off the dribble. Also, it means that Lee has been forced to create his own shot more in New Jersey than in Orlando. This is because if you are scoring more baskets that are assisted, you are theoretically taking more open shots, because most times you wouldn’t catch and shoot if you aren’t open. All of this means that as Courtney Lee becomes more comfortable creating for himself and as the ball starts bouncing his way, you can see his shooting percentage rise, probably not to the level of last year, but to a level where he can be a very productive scorer (you may already be seeing this – 6 of 9 last game – I had this post all geared up before the game by the way)
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When watching Courtney Lee, you can tell that he is a smart player, who knows what he is doing out there, and when he is out there, he does show a lot of poise. All of that is reflected in the numbers. It is crazy to think about it, but Courtney Lee’s PER is higher this year in New Jersey than it was in Orlando. It has increased from 10.04 last year to 12.01 this year. Granted, this is still below average (average PER is 15), but I like to think the numbers I have highlighted above show the well-roundedness of Courtney’s game and I think as the shooting percentage starts to take its natural course and increase, you should see this number go up even more.
Nets’ fans need to hold off on any Lee bashing. Seriously. Like I said before, part of the disappointment could be that he isn’t duplicating Vince Carter’s numbers and that he isn’t the proven scorer we expected him to be. The truth of the matter is that expected him to produce like Vince did here is just plain crazy, and as Nets fans we need to realize that Courtney Lee is only a season and a quarter into his pro career. Becoming a proven scorer in the NBA usually (there are some rare cases) takes a while to happen, especially when you go from a team where you get a lot of baskets created for you to a team where you need to create for yourself.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:25 AM
I’m still unconvinced. Should we not be seeing an increase everywhere from last year? I know you have highlighted many increases in categories I didn’t even know existed. But how much do these stats really matter? Maybe statistically he is playing better. But when I watch him on the court every game he’s not living up to expectations. Besides the last game, I have not been impressed once.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Cmon…Its Funny That Every article about C.Lee People are Makin Excuses For His Poor Shooting..Lack Of Performance..When Will This Stop? He Came Here OVERRATED and Over Hyped and Has Had 1 Good Game So Far….and When THIS season Has An Opposing Defense Set Out 2 Shut Him Down…As I recall, The Lakers Put There Best Defender On Douglas-Roberts NOT Lee..
December 1st, 2009 at 10:32 AM
The stats I presented show you one, that he is playing better overall. And two, his poor shooting is a fluke right now. As his shooting goes back to where it should be, he will be playing even better.
Also, you guys talk about expectations, isn’t it a little unrealistic to think a second year player coming from one extreme to the other to have a great year off the bat? Plus the injury probably has something to do with it…
December 1st, 2009 at 11:08 AM
What I’m trying to say, which I didn’t present clearly enough is that statistics don’t say everything about the way someone plays. One of the most prolific scorers, Allen Iverson, after leaving the Sixers, a team that he never won the championshipw with, has made each team he has been on worse. Some players who have good stats still don’t make their team better. Even if C-Lee’s stats are up slightly from last year, I’m still not seeing him fulfill his role (nothing to do with his expectations).
December 1st, 2009 at 12:11 PM
“What I’m trying to say, which I didn’t present clearly enough is that statistics don’t say everything about the way someone plays.”
Of course they don’t, but this kind of small sample size is deceptive.
You’re not impressed based on what? Ten games? Please. How do you know he still wasn’t bothered by the groin then?
Ever try playing with a “mild” groin strain? It’s fracking difficult.
December 1st, 2009 at 3:07 PM
He needs more time coz he just came from groin injury
He is great player maybe not a 20 PPG but 15 – 17 PPG player
December 1st, 2009 at 4:58 PM
I compare his situation to Trevor Arizas. Granted, Ariza has been in the league a few years longer, but Ariza went from being the 5th option on the lakers to the number 1 option on the rockets, and he has not disappointed. Stop making excuses for c lee.
December 1st, 2009 at 5:48 PM
I don’t think this is a great comparison. Ariza is going into his 5th year…Courtney Lee is 11 games into his 2nd.
December 1st, 2009 at 7:28 PM
Ariza is shooting 38%. Slow down.
December 1st, 2009 at 7:29 PM
Talk around the league after the Carter-Lee trade made it seem as though the Nets were picking up a star. Everyone from Dwight Howard to Shaq spoke about how surprised they were that Orlando was willing to part with someone who had so much upside. Even though it’s been only a few games, and even though he’s been injured, he has not performed or even shown signs of any star potential. I think that Lee just simply isn’t a top 3 option on a team (that wins, at least). No one expected to get Carter-like production from Lee but he hasn’t even been worthy of a starting spot in the time he’s gotten. I agree that he still needs time and maybe he will turn out to be a good player. But his inability to create off the dribble, inconsistent outside shot, and evident lack of athleticism (besides for a couple dunks on LeBron last year) can’t all be attributed to the injury. Lopez has had to deal with constant triple teams because Lee and co. can’t make open shots and that’s hindered Lopez’s progress and our quest for a win. Last thing – I think Lee’s been exposed as an average defender without Dwight Howard behind him. It’s a lot easier to be a good defender when you have the best defender in the NBA on your side as opposed to a Josh Boone, who doesn’t know defense from a hole in the wall…
December 1st, 2009 at 7:34 PM
there is nothing that says his shooting is a fluke. he was not expected to be a great shooter in Orlando, and still didn’t shoot the ball THAT well as a fifth option on a team that moves the ball extremely well. I don’t see why his shooting percentage should go up.
December 1st, 2009 at 8:04 PM
news flash guys Anderson’s PER has increased from 13.6 last year to 20.6 so if your impressed by lee’s per jump of one point thats on you…
December 1st, 2009 at 9:38 PM
On the stats how much do they mean. Its early in the season and Lee has misseed a lot of time those stats are based on a small sample size wait till he’s played more like 70 games. But also on that point he shot the ball bad for a few games then got injured and yesterday was his only game back from injury I mean Frank only played him 3 minutes in a game he was trying to keep his job. If the game against the lakers did anything I expect to see a diferent C lee from now on. Maybe playing the Lakers reminded him of where he was alst year
But yeah too soon to judge I’ve bashed him but mostly defended him as I’m pissed too but he’s still deserves a chance. He hasn’t played much so last hold off for now. And for those of you saying saying he has no star potential re watch the finals. I don’t care what you say about Orlando’s system helping him I didn’t realise he was a rookie untill game 3.
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:33 AM
[...] To Blog Well This, this is good stuff. I disagree with it entirely mind you, but it’s well-written, [...]
December 2nd, 2009 at 7:52 AM
It amazes me how quickly people sour on a player. You are a key role player on a championship caliber team, and you get traded to essentially the worst team in the league. You used to have Howard down low, Turk running the high pick and roll, with Lewis spotting on the wings, and now you have Devin Harris pulling up and Brook Lopez picking and popping. The differences between the two squads alone are enough for him to struggle, then add in the fact that he has been injured, has a gm/coach now, the team is playing for 2010 (the only reason they dont get lambasted for it like the Knicks do is bc the media doesnt focus all its attention on Northern NJ), and he was legitamately emotionally hurt when he was traded, the guy was destined to struggle out of the gate. Ease up and give him some time.
December 2nd, 2009 at 10:07 AM
The Arisa comparison is rather silly. Trevor is in his 6th year. He is with his 4th team. In his first 5 years he was never good enough to play more than 24 minutes a game. He comes to Houston and the first and second scoring options are injured and he is literally forced to score, but his per is below average (14.3). Bottom line, he’s a average scorer whoe is jacking up 17-18 shots a night and hittin 38%. Even you guys don’t want that.
December 2nd, 2009 at 10:45 AM
Are you guys really blasting a second year player, on a winless team, who’s been hurt?
I’m not sure why anyone expects him to be a 20ppg scorer right off the bat either. Courtney’s gonna lockdown the opposing 2, slash to the hole to create when needed, and knock down the open jumper when he’s got it. He’s not a 2nd or 3rd option, yet. He’s smart, he’s fearless, he’s poised, and he’s tenacious.
If you can’t see that you don’t know basketball. A winless team has much bigger problems than a second year player with a strained groin.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:17 PM
People are misunderstanding. It isn’t being said that he’s bad, rather he hasn’t been better on the Nets compared to his performance on the Magic.
January 14th, 2010 at 12:01 PM
[...] couple months back, we looked at Courtney Lee’s game by the numbers. It was 17 games in, and what I determined from the numbers then, is that if Lee could improve [...]