The Nets are bad, we know this, but why are they so bad? There are plenty of reasons, but I think the one of the best ways of figuring out what is going wrong with a team is to look at the four factors. Now, we have looked at four factors a couple times before, but this time we are going to look at the Nets’ four factors in wins and in losses to see if there is anything different that they are doing when they win. If there is, is it something that can carry over to the remaining games? Let’s take a look at the chart:
The Two Key Factors
Looking at the graph above, you can see the two key factors for the Nets. They are eFG% and Turnover Rate. Now eFG% makes sense. If the Nets shoot better, naturally they are going to have a better chance to win. So why do the Nets hit more shots in these 5 games? Well, just a few guesses here, but they probably get Brook Lopez a lot of touches down low, and in addition, when he passes out of the double team his teammates are making shots.
The other factor is Turnover Rate. It makes sense. If the Nets keep their turnovers down while they are shooting good, that means there are more possessions available for the Nets to take shots. That means more points and a better chance of winning. Also, the low Turnover Rater number means that the Nets offense must have been working well in these wins.
A Surprise
I actually thought that the Nets’ Free Throw Rate in wins was going to be a lot higher than their Free Throw Rate in losses, but in reality this is the opposite. The Nets get to the line at an above-average rate in losses, but they go to the line at a below average rate in wins. I think this can be explained because in losses, the Nets don’t shoot well (see eFG%), so for them to even have a chance at scoring, they need to attack the basket more. When they attack the basket more, they are going to get fouled more.
Advanced Box Score | Portland Roundball Society | BlazersEdge
All season long, the Nets have been unable to put together a complete basketball game. The past two games that the Nets was an example of this trend killing the Nets. On Sunday against the Grizzlies, the Nets outscored Memphis 58-47 in the first half, but there were outscored 57-36 in the second for a 10 point loss. Last night, it was the exact opposite, the Blazers started the game on fire (which was something that I was worried about going in) taking a 56-37 halftime lead. In that first half, the Nets shot an awful 36.1%. The second half was a totally different story with the Nets playing good defense, smart offense, and most importantly they were hitting shots (they outscored the Blazers 56-46 in the second half). The Nets shot 21-33 for the half (63.6%), and that is with them missing 7 out of their 9 shots.
The biggest problem for the Nets (and it has been a problem since Vince Carter left) is that they can’t close out games. This is because they don’t have a closer. They don’t have a guy you can just give the ball to and say “here, win the game please?” We’ve known this for a while, but I think it really was apparent last night because you saw what the Brandon Roy did for the Blazers. He put that team on his back, he played incredible in that final quarter. The Nets on the other hand have a few nice scorers, but nobody who can put the team on their back for an entire quarter. The 4th quarter against the Blazers was a perfect example. Courtney Lee started the quarter on fire, but he needed a break. Devin Harris picked up the slack and attacked the basket strong. In those final 3 minutes though, neither of them could get anything going. Yes, we have Brook Lopez, but your go-to guy late in games can’t be someone who needs to rely on other people to get him the ball. It just doesn’t happen. Think about all the “clutch guys” in the league’s history. Very few of them have been centers and that is why.
Speaking of the trio of Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, and Courtney Lee; they put up their best game (combined) of the year. They scored a total of 73 points on 26-48 (54.1%) shooting, including 17-18 (94.4%) from the line. Now if you have 3 guys shoot over 50% and score 73 points, you should normally get the win if just another person or two would show up. That didn’t happen last night. The other 7 Nets that played scored 20 points on 8-21 (38%) shooting, including 2-3 from the line. This is the other big problem for the Nets. They don’t have that reserve player (shoot, some games they don’t even have that 3rd scorer) who will consistently get you those 10 to 15 points a game that will get you over the top (Oh and before we get comment after comment about CDR being that guy, he’s not playing enough right now to be that guy, so there is no reason to talk about him).
A few more thoughts after the jump
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