Is Brook Lopez’s Jump Shot an Asset?
by Mark Ginocchio
Mar 3, 2010 Analysis, Brook Lopez
Brook Lopez’s offensive tendencies have been frequently dissected on this site and for good reason. He’s by far the most dynamic offensive talent on this roster, and may be one of the best offensive centers in the league. Lopez has been praised around the league for having the ability to keep defenders honest by occasionally journeying out of the post to hit a 16-20 foot jumper. But when looking closer at Lopez’s statistics, especially when compared to other centers around the league, there is good reason to question whether the long two is really a praiseworthy component of Brook’s offensive game.
Thanks to the always spectacular Hoopdata.com, I took at look at how Lopez’s shooting percentage from 16-23 feet compares with other centers who shoot from that spot on the floor with similar frequency. So for the sake of analysis, I’m comparing Lopez to all centers who have played 30 or more games and are averaging at least one 16-23 foot attempt per game.
Lopez currently attempts 2.7 16-23 footers per game, good for 9th out of the 25 qualifying centers. Lopez sinks about .9 of these shots per game, good for 33 percent. According to Hoopdata, only one other Center, Josh Powell on the Lakers, has a lower percentage on long twos than Lopez. Al Jefferson and Roy Hibbert are tied with Lopez at 33 percent.
Of the 25 players charted, the average shooting percentage on long twos was 41 percent. Additionally, of the eight centers ranked ahead of Lopez in terms of attempts per game, only Zydrunas Ilgauskas (35 percent) and Jason Thompson (37 percent) have shooting percentage of under 40 percent from that distance. The center attempting the most shots from 16-23 feet, David Lee (4.9 attempts), is averaging 45 percent from that distance – something the Nets should keep in the back of their minds when Lee hits the open market this summer.
So while Brook likes to shoot long twos frequently, these number suggest that the 16-23 footer really isn’t an effective part of Lopez’s offense. When you look at Lopez’s percentages at the rim (64 percent) and within 10-feet (49 percent), he’s just so more efficient in and around the post, it’s easy to question why he journeys out from that distance in the first place.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Good stuff, Mark. The other problem that his penchant for those long j’s does is let the defense off the hook. I mentioned it when I gave you some notes about the Hibbert/Lopez matchup prior to their last game.
It’s nice that Lopez has that shot as a safety valve, but when he’s taking a steady diet of them, it simply takes pressure off the defense. It doesn’t have to move, and it doesn’t have to take fouls.
March 3rd, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Hopefully in the future (with a point guard who can feed the ball to Brook deeper in the post) Lopez will start to shoot the 16 footer less and less. I feel like every game he has the ball at that spot and is just told “go beat the defender”, so, he takes a shot or tries to back them down from 20 feet away… next year we will have more assets offensively and better ball movement, Brook’s numbers (at least in efficiency) will hopefully skyrocket by the time the team starts clicking.
If we get a guy like DLee (who will stretch the D) or Amare (who is Amare) Brook will get more opportunities to do what he does best, work close to the basket. Things are looking up, mostly because it can’t get any worse but still.
March 3rd, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Keep in mind that a lot of those shots are ill advised shot taken out of frustration out of not getting the ball in the post and for whatever other reasons. The good news is that Brook can make those shots he’s not missing because he can’t but because he taking bad shots. Like just tossing it up there and shooting with the defense closing on him.
So hopefully next year we get the likes of David Lee or a power forward like this make Brook mure post orientated. And hoepfully the team do a better job of getting him the ball in the post. That way on the hopefully rarer ocassions when he does takes these shots to keep defense honest he will have a good look and make more of them.
March 3rd, 2010 at 1:30 PM
This is going off on a tangent.. but do you know why they got rid of the blue road jerseys? I’m really not digging the red ones this year. They should bring back the gray ones from 2002! Also, it seems like every team’s logo has had a makeover at some point in the past 10 years while the nets… haven’t. We’re still wearing the same white jerseys from the marbury and sam cassel days.
March 3rd, 2010 at 2:32 PM
Mark, look at Brook’s rate from this distance last year – he was 41%, which was the avergae rate this year. (The numbers for 2009 are likewise available on Hoopdata.)
It is difficult to know whether Brook *really* is a 41% shooter from this distance (as he was last year) or a 33% shooter (as he is this year). Likely he is taking so many of these shots because he thinks (in his own mind) that he is a 41% shooter – at least average for a big man.
March 3rd, 2010 at 3:19 PM
I’d prefer only to see bank-shots
March 3rd, 2010 at 6:37 PM
Great point Shea23. And the other one who said he should go for bank shots more often.
Personally I have no problem with Brook shooting. He needs to balance his game a little better though which is easier said than done. Lopez has great touch, it’s just that he has a tendency to rush his shot. When he relaxes on the perimeter his jumper is as pure as it gets.
That’s just my opinion though.