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Daily Link(s): LeBron Leaving/Brook Lopez Is Good

LeBron and the Cavs’ path to the Eastern Conference semi-finals and a meeting with the Orlando Magic took a bit of a detour last night when the Celtics beat the Cavs in blowout fashion winning 104-86 (and it wasn’t even that close).  Nobody really though about what would happen if the Cavs lose in the second round to the Celtics because nobody (including myself) thought that was a possibility.  So what happen if the Cavs lose?  Jay Mariotti thinks that LeBron is out of there:

“Relax,” he could have said at the pre-game ceremony. “I’m staying five more years.”

But James refuses to soothe fears that he still might leave the Cavaliers in free agency this summer. He prefers to keep playing his public poker game and let it veer into a frantic climax come July 1, when he finally can negotiate with the Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Heat and even the Clippers and Wizards if his masochistic side prefers. Maybe he’s remaining mum right now for a very good reason.

If the Cavs flop again in the playoffs, he might be looking for the nearest escape hatch out of town.

If you want my opinion, LeBron is staying, but for those holding out hope that LeBron will become a Net, the Cavs losing to the Celtics is probably the most likely way that it would happen.  What else could Cleveland do to put a winner on the court?  Not much.  If LeBron does leave, I still think the best landing spot for him is New Jersey…er…Brooklyn.

One of the reasons I think the Nets is the best landing spot for LeBron is Brook Lopez.  In just his second year, Brook Lopez is starting to make a claim that he might be the second best center in the east.  He has a solid back to the basket game, a nice shot, and he runs the floor very well.  Jordan Schultz from NBA Fanhouse tends to agree:

Perhaps the most well-rounded big man in this tier, Lopez is a true center in every sense of the word. Despite playing for the awful Nets, he was a bright spot in east New Jersey all season long, flourishing in his second professional season. Defensively, he’s a shutdown block artist (1.70 per game) who utilizes his tremendous length to clog driving lanes and force errant shot attempts.

He runs the floor well, either filling the lane on fast breaks or creating excellent low-post position. He has terrific hands, the type of huge oven mitts you want from a big guy. He can score from either block and has a surprisingly useful left hand for such a young player. Plus, he’s an 82 percent free-throw shooter, ensuring he’ll be on the floor late in games. Unlike many of his peers, Lopez’s game is predicated off of footwork and a diverse skill set. His combination of hooks, up-and-unders and overall cleverness around the basket make him the best young center in the game today not named Dwight Howard. If the Nets acquire a gifted passer like John Wall or Evan Turner in the draft, there’s no telling how good Lopez can be.

It makes me happy whenever Brook Lopez gets some love.  He made such a jump from his first year to his second year, but it doesn’t really get talked about much because he was playing for the worst team in the NBA last year.  On most nights Brook was the only one really doing work on the offensive end, and that’s even when he faces a barrage of double and triple teams.

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Jon you are an idiot.

Lopez also was the #1 option for the Nets meaning taht opposing teams defenses FOCUSED on lopez. None of the other centers you mentioned had nearly as much to fight through.

To clear the air, AB is a better Center than Brook as of today. All those others, no not even a bit. The only downfall to Brooks game is his defense, but look at where he was at!! Look at the Organization he was with at the time in the Nets who ca have not really cared if we would have won 12 games or not. Look at all the great bigs today, most are on an organization where development was crucial in how these stars are now today ie DW and Patrick Ewing. Once this new owner comes and we get us a Defensive minded coaching staff with new devopment staff Brook will surely become a force to be reckon with. There will be no coversation pieces like this come a few seasons

And i like brook but he will never be tim duncan

how is andrew bogut better than brook lopez, brook is much more polished offensively i'll give u that bogut is better on Defense but i would without a question take brook over bogut TODAY

FWIW, I think Brook's upside potential is Bob Lanier. Never as brilliant or athletic as Kareem or Wilt (or DHoward if you're Brook), but a skilled very big man. A steady top 20 player but only in the top 10 occasionally.

First, Nets pay Phil Jackson $15m per for five years. Next, they draft John Wall.

Then they get a commitment from David Lee for somewhat less than the max.

Welcome to Newark/Brooklyn LBJ.

Sorry fellows but Rick Barry was the best power forward ever to play the game!

Lopez is good but he will never be great.. he's simply not athletic enough to do the things Duncan does

Also, saying that Lopez can and will be better than Duncan is nuts. After reading that, I guess I can't be surprised that some think Brook is better than Bogut.

Timmy is an all time great, one of the greatest, if not THE greatest PF to ever play the game.

Andrew Bogut is clearly a better player than Lopez RIGHT NOW. I'm not talking about who has the better future or more room to improve. If we're talking about who's the 2nd best C in the league, Bogut is easily the better player than Lopez right now. More polished game, FAR better defender, higher BB IQ...

Coming into the league, and predicting how the Nets would do last year, one quote that stood out for me was Brook saying he wanted to be Tim Duncan. Well, he can, he will, and in fact, he's a better free throw shooter. Brook is way better than Bogut, way way better that Noah (and I was a fan of his father Yannick!), with only Horford and of course Howard being the best in the east right now. To Springsteen, re Horford, back track and look at how Horford made the Hawks a playofff team IN HIS ROOKIE SEASON! He has a toughness, a certain something that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. Regardless, in 2 - 3 years Brook will be the #1 center in the east, maybe the league, and his FT% will be the one thing that will push him over the top. Plus, when the Nets get a tough, defensive minded PF it will have a huge impact and free Brook up to be Brook. MVP! MVP! MVP!

i think calling all toasters is right those other bigs have much more help and lopez sees dbl and triple teams almost everytime he touches the ball in the paint. There is no way that guys like AL HORFORD who has guys like joe johnson and josh smith is better. In my opinion Lopez is #3 center be in the league behind dwight howard and yao and ahead of bogut horford bynum and noah.

Brook will be an allstar as soon as he has a real PF that knows how to play defense and box out.
Yi got Brook in a lot of foul trouble with his lack of defensive IQ.
Brook is the best offensive center behind Yao. Period.
Remember Brook is only 21
DH and Yao wish they were as good as Brook is at 21.
Once Brook has a real coach and shooters around him its over for DH as the top center

jon--

Even Berri's Wins Produced is not entirely empirical (what I assume you meant when you said "objective"). For instance, see how offensive and defensive efficiency are defined. And, of course, all statistical models have error. This is why there are many competing models-- to see who can get the lowest error.

I don't know where to find Wins Produced, but here's Wins Above Replacement Player for this season:
Lopez: 11.3
Bogut: 11.1
Horford: 10.9
Gasol: 10.0
Noah: 7.4
Oden: 3.2

The more I get into this, the better the Lopez looks.

Hey Jon,trying to fill up a stat sheet with your comments!First of You are wrong about the other centers being better than Brook,he gets double and triple team because have the Nets have the worst outside shooting team in the league,the defense of the other team colaspe on Brook and dare the other players to shoot,also he is playing along side the worst power forward in the league in Yi,and the worst coach in YIKI,if D.Howard played with the Nets he would adverage no more than 12-15 points a game.

My comment about Nene comes from the complaint of my firend an avid nuggets fan that watches every game thant and the general conesensus of the media. Nene didn't play a lick of defense in the playoffs. He shoots at a higher rate because he takes less shot and never gets double teamed. I also think Brook has devolped a nice passing game this year, remember he's been passing out of double teams. But yeah the reason we're so high on Brook is because out of all of those centers he's the only one with a real back to the basket game, something that can make a plyer really special. Also with all big men these days offense is usually where they are lacking ie: Dwight Howard so I'd Brook be polished offensively this early in his career then anything else. As nets fans lets hope he devolps.

Tim Duncan played power forward in college, he played it when David Robinson was on the team. He is most effective at PF. He has filled in at times at the center position but more often the spurs play him at PF. In the word of Charles Barkley he's greatest power forward ever. Regardless saying Brook at age 21 isn't as good as on the best big men ever to play the game is an unfair slight I think.

And like I said, looke at Wins Produced, not win shares. Wins Produced uses a regression model based off of a teams point differential to assign wins to each player. In other words, it is objective, and not subjective like win shares.

I dont think he produces more overall that most of them. So I am going to disagree with you on point 4, which is the main point. He hasn't really produced that much, and is so far getting out-produced. He has the potential to improve, but he needs a much better all-around game to become a top center in the league.

Duncan is only a PF by all-star ballot. If you look at where Hollinger or any website that tracks where players play, he is clearly the center on the team.

Nene is a much better passer, a much better defender, rebounds just as well, his true shooting % is 7 points higher and he turns the ball over less. Brook just scores at a higher rate than him, and I don't know where your inconsistency comment comes from. Past few years have been pretty steady. Yea I think I was wrong about Kaman, Brook is definitely better than him. Camby is a toss up. Despite his age, he is still one of the top defensive centers and rebounders in the league, but yea he isn't as good as he used to be. I don't think the trades really prove much . That only makes sense under the premise that most teams understand what they are doing and are not motivated by cutting salary. The Nuggets gave Camby away to avoid the luxury tax, and is an explanation really needed for any Clippers trade (although they did the same thing).

But regardless of how you feel about each individual player, Brook isn't clear cut above just about any of these guys, and there are currently a lot of good centers (and young ones). So declaring Lopez already one of the top centers is a bit pre-mature. I think he has the potential, but a lot of work is still to be done. He is clearly a great talent, I just think after Howard and Duncan there is not too much difference between the next eight centers or so

"This includes rebounding the ball, not turning the ball over, not fouling, stealing the ball,blocking the ball, playing good man-to-man defense."

That's why I used Win Shares, duh. It's amazing he can do so well in it when he doesn't do any of the things that contribute to it.

So, to sum up, Brook:
1) Plays more minutes than they do.
2) Is younger than all of them, by 2 to 4 years.
3) Has lower minute-to-minute efficiency than most of them (although higher than all but one when they were 21), but
4) Produces more overall than most of them, while
5) Playing for a team without any offensive or defensive gameplan whatsoever
6) Which also had no other inside or outside threat

And you're going to take any of them over Brook? Hoooookay.

Tim's a PF, Nene has been around quite a while and is horribly inconsistent and doesn't match up to Brook anywhere. Chris Kaman showed promise this year after several dissapointing seasons. Camby was a good player and great defender but he's past it hence why he's bouncing around a lot and he never was close to the offensive force Brook is right now.

First of all, wins produced is a much better metric than wins shared. And according to wp, all of the mentioned centers are better than Lopez on a per minute basis. Oden, Bynum and Noah have had trouble staying on the court b/c of injuries this year, but other than Oden it is hard to say if it will be long term. Bogut was healthy all year until his freak injury.

Of the players I mention, Bogut, Horford and Gasol all played similar minutes this year, with Noah not too far behind. The fact is, being a great player takes more than just scoring points. You need to A) score efficiently. And You need to B) do all the little things on the court. This includes rebounding the ball, not turning the ball over, not fouling, stealing the ball,blocking the ball, playing good man-to-man defense.

Other than blocks, is there one thing Brook is above average at in those categories? All these other centers have multiple skills and do lots of different things on the court.

As for veteran centers, I would look at Chris Kaman, Tim Duncan, Nene and Camby. All have much different styles, but they key is they all have multiple skills that can help a team. They don't just do one thing, as Brook. Brook has the chance to develop into a nice player, but he has a long way to go before that happens. He basically needs to develop everything other than his ability to score.

1) You have no idea how these guys would do on the Nets, a team with no coach and hardly any players.

2) Brook's Win Shares this year are higher than Bogut has gotten in any of his 5 seasons. Ditto for Bynum (although in Bynum's defense, he is 3 years younger than Bogut and only one year older than Brook). Noah is 3 years older and hasn't come close. Marc Gasol (sorry, I was thinking Pau in the comment above) just beat it at 25. Horford only beats him by this season, where he's 2 years older. Oden doesn't play.

Yes, a lot of these have better WS/48 minutes (although only Bynum did at 21). But Brook played an enormous number of minutes this year-- should we penalize him for that? More rest might lead to fewer Win Shares but it would certainly improve his efficiency.

The only one on your list who would be of equal value in a trade is Horford, I think.

I'm just going to point that people act like he can score more because he's on a bad team, not so. Sure Brook is an option on offense he's also had to try and score facing double and triple teams the likes of Horford get their point because their ignored. The fact he scored so much is even more impressive as the only option on a nets team. If anything Brook will score more a better team. I don't know why you give Bynum credit he's been in the league a while and people are still talking about potential Brook is youngger in two years and people are saying he'll soon be the best. Marc Gasol showed nice devolpment this year but I give Brook credit over him and as for Oden. The guy showed us a month of good basketball in his career and overall has been a disapointment his inclusion makes me disregard your arguement almost entirely no offense.

Fact is Brook is second best in the east right now, he gets this over Bogut in my opinion becuase not only is he younger but he has yet to miss a day in his career while Bogut might be the most injury prone center in the league. Durability is a factor after all a great player that doesn't play isnt a player at all. As for all these veterans that are better do tell because center is the deepest position in the league and considering Stoudermire started at center for the west in the all star game this year no one comes to mind.

Boone averages roughly 10 minutes a game. These guys are all 30+ minutes players on winning teams (and a big part of the teams success). If most of these guys were on the Nets, they would be averaging a similar amount of points as Lopez (maybe not quite as much for some, although it is really all conjecture and hart to project), only they would still be better defenders, rebounders and all around players.

Before you scream at me to look at how many points per game Lopez scores, I ask you to look at how efficiently he scores them.

Bynum has Gasol. Gasol has Bynum. They both have Odom. Horford has Josh Smith. Oden has Aldridge. All of those guys rarely face double-teams and never triple-teams. The Nets have (without Lopez) one of the worst front lines ever. And terrible outside shooting. Nothing to take coverage away from Brook.

You want efficient scoring on the Nets? I guess Boone is your man. (52.5% from the field) Is he now more of an offensive threat than Lopez?

I would agree with you that most of those centers are better than lopez in terms of defense and rebounding, but offense? No way... Being the best offensive player on a bad team(horrible team in this case) just makes everything harder. Lopez definitely has the best fundamentals out of them, and is putting up much more points. As to his fg%, of course it's lower because he's being double and tripled teamed every position... Defense will come( he's only 22) ad I guarantee you lopez will be battling Howard for the top center spot in a couple of years, especially if the nets get playmakers like wall, turner, or LBJ..

and my apologies, Noah also has a worse ts%, by about 1%, but also cleans house on the boards and is one of the best passing big men

I also think that of the bunch I mentioned I could confidently say Lopez is the worst defender, which shouldn't come as a surprise, as usually the top rebounding bigs are also the top defenders

I would certainly put Al Horford and Andrew Bogut above Brook Lopez in the east. Joakim Noah is roughly his equal. Out West I would say Andrew Bynum and Marc Gasol are certainly better than Lopez as well. And if Oden ever stays healthy, you can add him to that list. And this is just looking at the young "up-and-comers", not any of the veterans.

Before you scream at me to look at how many points per game Lopez scores, I ask you to look at how efficiently he scores them. Of those centers, only Bogut has a worse true shooting %, and ALL are vastly superior rebounders (and Bogut also happens to be one of the best defensive Centers in basketball now).

Also, many of these players would be scoring a lot more if they were in Lopez' position on a dreadful Nets team. They just are not asked to score as much as Lopez is because other players are capable of scoring. That does not make them worse players. There are no excuses though for Lopez' lack of rebounding with Yi as his power forward.

Moneys not an issue everyone will pay him I guess our pitch is better than some.

Yes Brook is a top 5 center and soon will be #2 in the league. The Nets have the right mix of cap space, young players, and management to get Lebron and 1 more free agent. It doesnt matter where Lebron goes Cleveland wants him to stay.
Any team that wants him will have to make the deal so sweet that Lebron could not refuse.

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