The Nets Roster is Statistically Better
by Mark Ginocchio
Jul 13, 2010 2010 Offseason, Anthony Morrow, Johan Petro, Jordan Farmar, Travis Outlaw
Say what you will about the Nets and their off-season pick-ups thus far (I certainly said a lot last Friday), but one thing is certain – they are assembling a roster that, statistically speaking, is a definitive improvement over last year’s 12-win debacle. With the acquisitions of Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar, Anthony Morrow (who was officially acquired in a sign and trade yesterday) and Johan Petro, the Nets are adding to their already young and developing core, and doing this with players who offer an improved skillet over organizational predecessors like Jarvis Hayes, Bobby Simmons, Keyon Dooling and Josh Boone. Meanwhile, for the first time since the dismantling of the “Big Three” era, the Nets appear to be following an actual team-building philosophy – acquiring athletic, multi-purpose players who can run the floor, play defense, and shoot the three. When your team’s primary weapons are an athletic, speedy point guard in Devin Harris and a low post powerhouse in Brook Lopez, the athletic and three-point aspects become especially important.
But let’s go back to where the Nets have statistically improved. Here are some of the key numbers (using advanced metrics) for some of our new acquisitions compared to how some of the Nets playing in similar role/positions last year performed. I’m even going to use Outlaw’s 2009-10 numbers, which were affected by a lingering foot injury all season.
Small Forward
Travis Outlaw: 16.9 (points per 40 min); 50.3 (true shooting %); 9.1 (assist ratio); 8.6 (turnover ratio); 9.8 (rebound rate); 13.34 (PER).
Jarvis Hayes: 13.6 (P 40); 52.1 (TS %); 9.9 (assist ratio); 6.9 (turnover ratio); 6.0 (rebound rate); 9.75 (PER).
Outlaw vs. Hayes: P 40 (+3.3); TS% (-1.8); assist ratio (-.8); turnover ratio (-1.5); rebound rate (+3.8); PER (+3.59).
Chris Douglas Roberts: 15.2 (P 40); 51.2 (TS %); 11.2 (assist ratio); 11.7 (turnover ratio); 6.6 (rebound rate); 11.52 (PER).
Outlaw vs. Douglas-Roberts: P 40 (+1.7); TS% (-.9); assist ratio (-2.1); turnover ratio (+2); rebound rate (+3.2); PER (+1.82).
Shooting Guard
Anthony Morrow: 17.8 (P40); 59.7 (TS%); 11.1 (assist ratio); 8.9 (turnover ratio); 7.1 (rebound rate); 14.07 (PER).
Courtney Lee: 14.9 (P40); 52.5 (TS%); 11.6 (assist ratio); 7.3 (turnover ratio); 6.1 (rebound rate); 12.88 (PER).
Morrow vs. Lee: P40 (+2.9); TS% (+7.2); assist ratio (-.5); turnover ratio (-1.6); rebound rate (+1); PER (+1.19).
Terrence Williams: 14.9 (P40); 45.9 (TS%); 21.0 (assist ratio); 11.7 (turnover ratio); 11.4 (rebound rate); 11.58 (PER).
Morrow vs. Williams: P40 (+2.9); TS% (+13.8); assist ratio (-9.9); turnover ratio (+2.8); rebound rate (-3.7); PER (+2.49).
Backup Point Guard
Jordan Farmar: 16.0 (P40); 53.5 (TS%); 16.9 (assist ratio); 9.6 (turnover ratio); 5.0 (rebound rate); 12.34 (PER).
Keyon Dooling: 15.0 (P40); 51.9 (TS%); 24.8 (assist ratio); 10.8 (turnover ratio); 3.2 (rebound rate); 11.6 (PER).
Farmar vs. Dooling: P40 (+1); TS% (+1.6); assist ratio (-7.9); turnover ratio (+1.2); rebound rate (+1.8); PER (+.74).
Backup Center
Johan Petro: 11.2 (P40); 55.3 (TS%); 9.5 (assist ratio); 15.6 (turnover ratio); 17.1 (rebound rate); 10.75 (PER).
Josh Boone: 9.7 (P40); 50.9 (TS%); 9.2 (assist ratio); 11.8 (turnover ratio); 17.4 (rebound rate); 13.74 (PER).
Petro vs. Boone: P40 (+1.5); TS% (+4.4); assist ratio (+.3); turnover ratio (-3.8); rebound rate (-.3); PER (-2.99).
July 13th, 2010 at 8:51 AM
Great stuff as usual.
July 13th, 2010 at 9:28 AM
Outlaw has NEVER put up numbers like that !
He has only ever hit double digits twice in his 7 year career.
Please don’t start throwing out BS !!
Outlaw has NEVER averaged more than 25 minutes for a whole season and how many time has he ever played more than 50 games in a single season ?
And this is the guy we gave $35 million over 5 years and we GUARENTEED the WHOLE thing, you want to talk about total stupidity !! that is it right there.
July 13th, 2010 at 9:31 AM
Your projecting all these players at 40 minutes per game, but in reality they don’t play and haven’t ever played anywhere near 40 minutes per game.
So that makes all these numbers flat out wrong.
July 13th, 2010 at 9:38 AM
but setting all the stats are 40 minutes per game is just a way of making a fair comparison, not a way of predicting the players’ numbers for next season.
July 13th, 2010 at 9:39 AM
*at 40 minutes
July 13th, 2010 at 9:59 AM
I don’t know much about statistics but I believe the 4 players we acquired are better then the ones we had. What we still are missing is the PF. We have to hope Favors can blossom in the next 2 years or somehow someone trades us a stud PF. It will be very interesting to see what Outlaw can do with starter’s minutes. We still have to many guard/wing players. Maybe Outlaw can play some PF until we can acquire one without over paying.
July 13th, 2010 at 10:02 AM
This roster is modestly improved from last year..yet so is virtually every other team in the NBA. We could win 25-30 games and still be in the lottery. If they had wanted to make the playoffs they needed to add at least one semi-stud. They could have had Jefferson, now I hear he may replace Boozer in Utah. Now they mention Amundson from the Suns…give me a break…How about keeping the summer league kid Jakim Donaldson..his numbers were nearly as good as Favors on less minutes and actually blew Favors away on FG%..Humphries is still around as well..we don’t need to get anyone considering where we are not going….The true key to this year is Lopez becoming a 20/10 guy and Harris giving a 100% not his customary 75%..Avery should help there.
July 13th, 2010 at 10:38 AM
@NJINME It’s hard to believe that virtually every other team in the NBA could have improved in the off-season… where did all the better players come from? Where did all the worse players go? Draft notwithstanding, the NBA is basically a zero sum system… someone had to get worse!
July 13th, 2010 at 10:45 AM
They improved the same way the Nets did..modestly..Some like the Bulls a bit more than modestly…and like it or not unless Lopez or Harris or Favors or some darkhorse really shines…Amare is the best player in the NY Metro area…regardless of cost.
July 13th, 2010 at 11:19 AM
Kenyon Dooling is the only person on this list that recieved a bad wrap. He was a good back up. Problem is your two best players played the same position. I will say this although the statical Paradigm means absolutely nothing what is true is the Nets have a better bench. But you must also understand the whole reason the Nets where in the situation they were in last season was because they were attempting to dump cap to acquire Lebron. They didn’t gain his services but they did dump the Cap. The Nets didn’t have a hard time being better. Just with the acquiring of the rookies they’d be a better team. My only concern is are Brook Lopez and Devin Harris going to Step up and is T Will going to make the adjustment to Two Guard effectively this year. Oh and sign Shaq.. lol
July 13th, 2010 at 11:31 AM
First off I have to say I do not believe in stats all that much. They can be used in a positive way to help your team become better, if you truly know how to use them correctly as a coach. The stats saying the Nets are statistically better are slightly bogus. The Nets are better because we have better players at those positions now…LOL. They are not better by leaps and bounds just better overall basketball players which means a lot more then a point or two per 40 minutes. It means better quality and efficiency. The key to stats is efficiency per minute played. Plus IMO you can’t use a per 40 minute measurement, especially for players who never averaged 40 minutes, how many do in the NBA? If a player scores 15 points in 20 minutes he won’t score 30 in 40 minutes, we all know that’s totally wrong and you did NOT do that which gives your statistical analysis more credibility. If he a player plays and average of 20 minutes a game most of that time is spent against the second team of the team they are playing so those stats are comparing starters to backups. But common sense rules here. These are better players taking over and in addition to, regardless of stats. We didn’t have an Outlaw and Farmar, who has championship experience. The biggest statistical plus here is the head coach, factor that in. Also factor in the statistical improvement of potential all stars from their second year to their third, I’m talking about Lopez. Also a healthy Harris who will have a quality backup. I think those 2 things means a lot more in terms of winning games. We are going to shock the NBA world, make the playoffs and be one of the tougher teams to play. We are still a joke to NBA fans, that will change. We have added young, talented and athletic players to a pretty good core. It looks like so far we have over a 30% turnover in players and not just replacements, they are big improvements, no not the type to take you over the top but enough to get you there. Go Nets!!!
July 13th, 2010 at 12:17 PM
Yeah, these acquisitions ought to boost us up to 14-15 wins. Is that the goal?
Best to worst:
1) Morrow was a good pickup.
2) Farmar was OK if you need someone on the cheap. There were about 4-5 better PGs out there. Slightly better than Keyon, but Keyon’s career is over.
3) Boone is way better than Petro, only a year older, and probably would have come cheaper.
4) Outlaw is better than Jarvis Hayes, but Damion James is already better than Outlaw. A big waste of money.
July 13th, 2010 at 12:31 PM
Shut up and let these guys gear up for the season. No more complaints of a PF. We have new life so give the PF’s we have now a chance. We’re going to WAR and the Little General is leading the charge with the Spinach Man and Sam I Am in his corner. Let me hear the battle cry. LETS GO NETS! LETS GO NETS!! LETS GO NETS!!!
July 13th, 2010 at 12:35 PM
DAMION JAMES IS A ROOKIE.
your saying that outlaw insnt as good as james and james is a rookie. pleas man get it strait he was putting up numbers in summer league. he was being gaurded by undrafted free agents. when he hits the nba floor hell be gaurded by supirior players. outlaw has had his go through in this leauge. he can put up big points and rebounds given the oppurtunity. OUTLAW WILL PROVE EVERYONE WRONG. outlaw can play. he is not only an athletic lengthy scorer he has heart and hes gonna play great. ESPECIALLY IN A SYSYTEM THAT DEVELOPED A GUY NAMED JOSH HOWARD. and as for petro he is the nuber one big man from france. BOONE WAS TERRIBLE. PETRO WASNT A GREAT SIGNING BUT ITS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER BOONE. please dont come here and try to say all these players are trash.
July 13th, 2010 at 12:44 PM
one of the editors here seriously needs to do something about mike
July 13th, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I can actually see the Nets signing Boone on the cheap to help out at PF. While his offensive game is limited to say the least, he is a fair defender and decent rebounder. Favors is a young rookie, and rookies get called for A LOT of fouls, especially ones that play the 4-5 and are not yet physically mature. Look how many fouls Favors was getting in the summer league against much lesser talent (and experience). I suspect there are going to be games when Favors picks up 2-3 fouls very quickly, and the Nets are going to need someone other than Humphries at the 4. The Nets aren’t expecting much point production from the PF position this year, but whoever is playing will be expected to rebound and play sound D, and I think Boone is an adequete, low cost, 3rd alternative who could also be the 3rd option at the 5. I am talking about 5-10 minutes a game max depending on foul trouble.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:02 PM
@mike– While I find your use of all caps persuasive, I still have some nagging doubts.
1) I’m not sure that it’s impossible for a rookie to be better than a veteran. James’s projected PER is close to that of Outlaw, and since PER undervalues defense, I’d call them at least equal. The Summer League is only some confirmation that James can play. Given that Oultaw is entering his 8th season, who would you expect to improve, James or Outlaw?
2) I don’t believe that being “the number one big man from France” actually trumps one’s on-court performance in the NBA.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:04 PM
I think the moves were mostly solid, and we didn’t really panic when it became clear that we weren’t getting Lebron/Bosh.
Keep in mind that this team is now married to D Favors. If he grows up in the next three years to be an all-star or near all-star, then between he and Lopez we have a dominant front court with a chance to build a contending/championship team around them. Everything that the org does from this point forward has to assume that Favors is a cornerstone. If he doesn’t turn out to be that, we’re going to have to get extremely lucky to contend regardless.
Outlaw is a fine stopgap and, if it turns out that D James is a starter, will be a very useful long, athletic scorer off the bench. If D James isn’t a starter, then we have two to three years to find a stud 3 between trades, the draft and free agency.
Morrow isn’t a starter, but he gives us a true zone buster, and he’s 6′5, which, along with Outlaw’s length, gives us a lot of flexibility off the bench. Farmar is being paid like a backup, and that’s what he’ll be unless he really blossoms outside of the Triangle. But he also brings two championship rings, and that may turn out to be a huge addition to this team in terms of adding chemistry and maturity.
Petro is a late developing kid who is only 24, truly athletic, and 7-freaking-1. He’s also being paid as a backup. No problem there. Keep in mind, too, that Courtney Lee looked (finally) like a very good all around player at the end of last year, and TWill is a potential impact player either as a starter or off the bench at 2 1/2 positions.
This team isn’t going to contend this year, they’re going to develop. Next year brings the possibility of two more lottery picks (one of which is protected through 7) with plenty of cap flexibility. Do they need to find one at least more impact player to add to the starting lineup? Almost certainly. But they have time to do that, and will have the resources (picks/cash/trading chips) to make that happen. And when they do, they’re going to have a deep athletic team with shooters and length off the bench.
It’s all about Favors and Lopez now.
Hang in.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:07 PM
So, is it safe/fair to say we now know why Rod Thorn resigned? Is it safe to assume he knew the intentions if we didn’t sign LeBron and he wasn’t about to endure more losing seasons?
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I agree Outlaw will be better than everyone thinks. He has more overall talent and basketball-IQ than Josh Howard and look at what Avery did with him.
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Farmar definitely a decent signing because he’s shown ability to come off bench and change games with athleticism and shot-making.
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Morrow is good as well, we will be a VERY good 3-pt shooting team.
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Petro is a head-scratcher IMO.
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Amundson would be an excellent grab – good talent at good price.
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Let us not forget we desperately need bigs to help make Lopez/Favors better players during practice. We can’t just sign guys who will be stop-gaps, they need to be able to push our bigs in practice. If our guys go against scrubs in practice, then what happens when they go against top NBA talent – they get destroyed. We need guys who will elevate level of practice to the point where game-time is no different then our practices and players play the same during both.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:10 PM
@Dan;
“One of the editors here seriously needs to do something about mike”
——————————–
I’m the real Mike but somebody keeps using my tag. I wish they would stop.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:14 PM
Uhhh clearly some of the posters here don’t understand PER and the proration of stats to the 40 minute rule…
People these are standard statistical features utilized by the NBA..
July 13th, 2010 at 1:19 PM
Yeah go Nets!!! Avery Johnson is the coaching change that was needed, thats for sure!!! The team is better today than 2 months ago for that reason alone. But although Morrow is a player on some nights, it’s this year’s draft that may go down in infamy. Sure not getting John Wall was what broke down any real chances of getting Lebron since Devin Harris would have been a very easy trade piece perhaps clearing (8 million)enough room to go for 2 max… ok ok that’s the way the lottery ball bounces BUT then knowing Lebron wanted a PF and PFs were on the market the Nets use the draft for that but don’t get Cousins and I think more importantly passed on a mature Wesley Johnson who will easily be one of the most efficient pros in this draft, he takes great shots and will be an all-star (he’s Joe Johnson) and all NBA defense before his career is said and done. Harris, Wes Johnson, free agent PF(Lee,Bosh,Stoudemire,Boozer etc…) and Brook Lopez would have been so much better and then even if you have to get Outlaw or Morrow to fill a wing that would be a team ready for the playoffs this year. But of course I still hope that Derek Favors will be Dwight Howard lite by the end of the season, Go Nets!!!
July 13th, 2010 at 1:24 PM
@Mike– should we call you “capitalized Mike”? It was hard enough when it was just you and “Mike R”– now we’ve got “mike.” Your name is just too damn common
July 13th, 2010 at 1:33 PM
What about trading Al Jefferson? We have the cap space, 3 years is not THAT long and we could always move him as an expiring contract the third year, which would be about the time we would know if Favors is for real or not. Does this at least make a little sense, or am I just crazy? No wait, don’t answer that last part…
July 13th, 2010 at 1:44 PM
1- I cannot wait until outlaw proves doubters on here wrong. People are up here acting like he is a bum. When is the last time we had an athletic guy, who plays hard and who can also shoot 3 pointers?
2- Morrow is an awesome pick up. he is young and can shoot the lights out. In the 2 seasons he has been in the nba, he is shooting over 45% of his 3 pointers. We have not had a shooter like this since we lost Drazen Petrovic (RIP Draz). When we went to the finals twice, we didnt have this much 3 point shooting.
3- Farmar is a great athlete, very fast, young, and can shoot the outside shot. He will be the best back up point guard we have had in a long time.
These are very good improvements. These are better improvemnts than most teams out there…
July 13th, 2010 at 1:49 PM
I wouldn’t mind signing Boone and giving him a chance, on a one year contract, minimum. You can’t have too many big men, he has some skills and working with this new coaching staff he might blossom. As for James being better then Outlaw, ummm…..NO. Maybe in 3 years or so. Outlaw is a proven commodity and hopefully he will improve also. He’s long and tall and creates match-up problems for shorter teams. Many times a player will come to a new team and under the right coach really grow as a player with the right system and other players around him. Many times they will regress and end up on the end of the bench if the situation isn’t right. Certain teams and coaches are notorious for that. Some players never develop because of their situation, they are so young and immature(Eddy Curry for one), they need nurturing. In football most players come in at 21 with 3-4 years of college and a very disciplined militaristic mentality, if they don’t have it they fail as with Ryan Leaf and now JaMarcus Russell. Basketball players are pampered so much more then other sports, they really need a safety net and nurturing support. Maybe that’s why Gilbert was so upset at Lebron, maybe he felt betrayed because he did everything he could for him in every way.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:55 PM
More than half the teams in the league have not improved themselves. Some teams have even became worse. But we are becomming better. We may not have big name free agent signings. But we are getting pieces we need. There are at least 2 teams who made the playoffs last year in the east that we are now better than with these moves. especially since they lost players (cleveland and charlotte). Toronto finished 9th. They are not improved. They lost Bosh. We are better than them. Indiana has not done much. We are better than them. I believe we are going to make the plaoffs this year. We are rebuilding our team the right way.
July 13th, 2010 at 1:57 PM
@ Wes, As for how the NBA uses Stats..ha ha ha, so does our government and look what a great job they do. Just because some entity uses some type of statistical analysis does not mean a thing. It all BS. It’s done for reasons and has nothing to do with reality. Probably reasons more for contract value then anything else. It’s all about how you perform on the court and how efficient you are. Is there a stat for taking bad shots? Not boxing out, Not running through screens, diving for loose balls, help defend and so on…NO. So in reality they are really meaningless and only good to get more money on your next contract just ask David Lee about that. I like the guy but he did pad his stats and forgo playing the way he used to for many reasons.
July 13th, 2010 at 2:02 PM
@hbj725;
You are 100% correct. Our pickups are good players who will now have the chance to let it all hang out. Russians traditionally do not beat you with finesse they beat you with shear numbers. We have the numbers, all we need is that one big stud PF. Maybe it will be Favors, maybe this year, maybe down the road.
July 13th, 2010 at 2:34 PM
The Nets have made solid moves so far without over paying and still being flexible with almost 15 million left in cap space.
Anthony morrow is a poor man Ray Allen, what highlights on youtube. This kid can shoot much better than CLee. Morrow has swagger and is rarely rattled.
travis Outlaw is good at almost everything, shooting, creating his own shot, passing, rebounding, team and individual defense. Outlaw has some injury problems and consistency problems but he shows up in big moments
Avery johnson will make sure Brook gets 20+ touches per game. No more 20 points in the 1st half and 6 in the second for brook.
Brook will take a giant step forward because of the pieces that were signed.
Yes we may need a real PF but its still only july!
July 13th, 2010 at 3:13 PM
It’s July 13th 2010… Do you know where your PF is at? LOL
July 13th, 2010 at 4:11 PM
Kris Humphries will dominate.You will see!
July 13th, 2010 at 4:35 PM
I’d like to see us pursue Paul Millsap via the trade market. The Jazz have little use for Millsap now as they just dealt for Big Al, so I bet Lee, Hump and a future draft pick would get it done.
July 13th, 2010 at 4:54 PM
Harris – Farmar
Morrow/T.Will
Outlaw – D.James – Q.Ross
Millsap – Favors/Luis A.
Lopez – Petro
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Interesting idea there TES. That wouldn’t be bad at all. Millsap is 25 , makes about 6-7 million per with 3 years left. He could start the first year.
July 13th, 2010 at 5:06 PM
Yes on Millsap.
July 13th, 2010 at 5:12 PM
I hear Al Harrington is almost a done deal with Dallas.
After seeing Favors in Summer League play, he is not much of a rebounder or scorer….
I think we still need help at PF
July 13th, 2010 at 8:33 PM
Favors has the ability to rebound and score. I think his problem is that he lacks aggressiveness. One of the questions people had about him was his motor. I am hoping either Avery lights a fire under him, or we can trade him. I know some people on here may not agree with me, or want to hear this, but after watching all of the summer league games (even the great 5th game of his), I am not sold on the prospect of favors. He is too laid back. But if we cant get a PF via trade, I hope Avery can bring out his aggressiveness…
July 13th, 2010 at 8:36 PM
When watching favors, I tried to use his age and lack of experience as an excuse. But after watching John Wall and Eric Bledsoe get at each other (both whom are 1 and done players also), i cant use Favors age as an excuse. Like I said, i know this is not going to be a popular opinion up here, but I’m hoping Favors can turn up the aggressiveness…
July 13th, 2010 at 9:55 PM
All I gots to say is Farmar gots skillz yo. hes got some crazy a$$ move called da dreidel. Only a jew wit skillz knows how to do.
July 14th, 2010 at 12:31 AM
Regarding Favors….like Bill Parcells used to say, if they don’t bite as pups, they never will..
July 14th, 2010 at 8:00 AM
Utah isnt going to trade Millsap. Certainly not for Hump, Lee and a pick. He is a “cheap” insurance policy for Jefferson and Kirelenko and has been a valuable member of that team. He is probably their second most valuable player behind Deron Williams. Assuming Favors can control his fouling problem, he is going to be fine. I dont know why everyone is so hard on him. Give the guy a chance. I bet he will be significantly improved by the all star break. I dont think you can judge the guy and how good/bad a pcik it was after 5 summer league games. Give it 2 years Nets fans.
July 14th, 2010 at 8:23 AM
I dont question favors ability. His skills are off the charts. I am more worried about his demeanor. I dont see that ‘attack mode instinct’. That is something u cant teach. And i dont know if it is something that can be developed. You either have i or you dont. D, James has it. This is not something im just seeing from the summer league games. This is something that was a question about him in college as well. Like i said, i am hoping for the best. Avery is a great motivator. And im hoping he can light that fire under favors…
July 14th, 2010 at 10:06 AM
Maybe we should have Favors hang out with Cousins over the summer. Still don’t understand why Nets passed up on this huge talent. I think they were afraid he was going to be a loose cannon. Favors needs to eat more red meat and hangout in some seedy neighborhoods for awhile. Maybe he can take Lopez with him. Who is our “tough” player? D.James? Team is still too soft.
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