Nets Are Scorching

George Karl & Avery Johnson (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

In honor of how the teams have done battle off the court all season, I’m going to do an extended pregame open thread for you guys. The Nets take on, of course, the 28-19 Denver Nuggets, and while Denver’s a very good team, I think the Nets have a good chance to pull off the upset tonight. This isn’t just a homer gut feeling, either (although when I’m recapping a 40-point loss I may think differently). If the Nets recognize & exploit Denver’s weaknesses, I do honestly believe they can take the Nuggets down.

The Nuggets employ a balanced, high-octane offense, and all the analytics agree: they’re #1 in the NBA. They have the highest offensive rating in the NBA at 112.5 according to Basketball-Reference, and they’re the #1 ranked offense according to Synergy Sports as well. The Nuggets are expected to be at full strength, while the Nets are still missing Damion James and Jordan Farmar. Despite their record, the Nuggets are actually not very strong on the road – only 8-13 when away from Denver. The Nets are 11-11 when playing in the Prudential Center.

It’s only one game, but Carmelo Anthony coming to Newark as an opponent is one of the bigger stories of this Nets season. I personally think a Nets win tonight would be huge – these teams have been battling it out all season behind closed doors, and this is the last chance they get to do it on the hardwood this season.

Here’s how you want to stop Denver and crawl out of the Rock with a victory:

Run real offenses! Attack them with pick & rolls, cuts, & spot-ups. Luckily, the Nets biggest offensive strengths line up perfectly with Denver’s biggest defensive weaknesses. The Nuggets are horrid at defending the pick & roll – according to Synergy, they allow 0.87 points per possession defending the ballhandler (24th in the NBA) and a matador-like 1.10 points per possession against the roll man (28th in the NBA). They’re also poor at defending post-ups (.90 PPP, 23rd), spot-up shooters (1.01, 19th) and terrible on cutters (1.30, 26th).

Thus, the Nets should run very basic but effective plays. Here’s one obvious one, which I’ve drawn up with the always great program FastDraw: the pick & roll.

Like any pick & roll, the keys are spacing, setting a good screen, and coming hard off the screener’s shoulder. In the setup, envision Harris, Morrow, Outlaw, Favors, & Lopez in these spots. If Graham is in, he doesn’t have great three-point range but he can spot up from up to 20 feet. Lopez is a better shooter from 15 feet than Favors, which is why Favors is the one coming up to set the pick & Lopez is moving back to spot up & create space. When Humphries is in the game, those two are interchangeable (although Hump isn’t a great shooter).

As Harris cuts into the lane, Morrow/Outlaw should be replacing up top so that he & Lopez aren’t bunched together on the left side. The other one of those two should be in the corner for two reasons: firstly, the corner is the most efficient place to shoot a three-pointer, and secondly it makes the defender more likely to help down if Harris gets to the basket (leaving the corner open). Favors should be rolling down the other side as Lopez spots up.

If they run this play effectively, every player on the Nets is a potential scorer: Harris & Favors at the rim, Lopez spotting up from midrange, or Morrow/Outlaw spotting up beyond the arc. Running an effective pick & roll exploits many of the weaknesses in Denver’s defense: switching on screens in the pick & roll and not consistently rotating defensively to make sure all potential scorers are covered.

Other than that, the Nets should consistently go to Lopez, Favors, & Humphries in the low post, and look to back-cut if players try to double down low. These are offenses that the Nets have proven they can run before. If they can do it again, in front of their home crowd, they stand a much better chance at victory.

Defend strong in the post, avoid fouls, & close out on spot-up shooters. The Nuggets rank first in the NBA in offense, and it’s no accident. With Nene & Carmelo Anthony leading the way, they’re the best team in the NBA at posting up, and with six – count ‘em, six – legitimate three-point shooters, they’re also the best team in the NBA at spotting up. They shoot a blistering 43.1% from beyond the arc on spot-up opportunities and score on 51.7% of trips in the post, both league bests.

It’s because of this – and not because of any pseudomachismo mind games – that I hope Derrick Favors stays out of foul trouble and plays big minutes tonight. Favors is the best player on the Nets at getting out to spot-up shooters, allowing only 31% shooting when he goes out to contest. Humphries is also very good at contesting spot-ups – opposing shooters only shoot 39% against him, and both are better than Lopez – and the two should see some time together on the floor.

Force them to run isolations. Other than kickouts to spot-up shooters, the most-used play by the Nuggets is isolation – with a cool 1,000 isolation plays this year. However, the Nuggets are actually at their least effective in isolation, only scoring 0.86 points per possession when they rely on isos. Carmelo Anthony is the biggest culprit – he accounts for 370 of their isolation plays and scores a pedestrian 0.79 PPP on isolation sets. J.R. Smith is also culpable, with 158 isolations and a 0.84 PPP.

The nature of the game may force Carmelo into an isolationist mindset, perhaps to show Nets fans the offensive repertoire they’re missing out on. Or something like that. Hopefully it does. I’ll take 40 inefficient points from Carmelo and a Nets upset any day.

Either way, tonight should be a lot of fun to watch, if only for how the fans will react to Carmelo Anthony. As the base was sharply divided about ‘Melo, I expect the reaction to be similarly mixed: some boos, some cheers. Stefan Bondy certainly found a divide among fans yesterday. I will say that the whole saga wasn’t really his fault, but he’s an easier outlet than Denver’s front office, who won’t be anywhere near the court in this game and thus not as easily scapegoated.

Let’s go Nets.

For more news & information on the Denver Nuggets, check out TrueHoop affiliate Roundball Mining Company.

In the words of former NFL Coach Dennis Green, “They are who we thought they were.” What I mean by that statement is that the 2010-11 New Jersey Nets are exactly who we thought they were. During their five-game home stand they showed some great signs and actually looked like a competitive team. They even prompted me to map out a way they could still make the playoffs (HAHA). But after the last two games I admit defeat and have realized that this team is still one of the bottom-feeders in the NBA.

Early last week the Nets ended their home stand with two exciting wins over the Cavaliers and the Grizzlies. They could have easily lost both games but showed some toughness and made the clutch plays in the 4th quarter to get wins. A 4-1 stretch for the Nets over 5 games was clearly their best run of the season and it got me (and I’m sure plenty of other delusional fans) thinking positive and hoping this team had an extended run in them. And then they flew to the Midwest and played the Indiana Pacers.

The game Saturday night against the Bucks was frustrating and the Nets clearly struggled to score, but at least Milwaukee had been playing decent basketball and they have some talent. The game that caused me to go back on the negative side with this team was the game against the Pacers. The Nets simply did not compete on the defensive end against Indiana, and gave up 68 in the 1st half and 124 in the game. They made Mike Dunleavy, Jr. look like an NBA superstar, and not the journeyman he is who hasn’t lived up to expectations. It was a game where the Nets scored 92 points, and still got blown completely out of the building.

Now after thinking about all of that let’s put the current state of the Indiana Pacers into perspective. They have lost 7 out of 8 (the only win being against the Nets) and they FIRED THEIR COACH after the next night’s game. Think about that for a second. The Nets didn’t get blown out by a team that was on a hot streak. They didn’t get beat by a team that was in the upper echelon of the League. They lost by 32 points to a team that was in utter turmoil and got rid of Jim O’Brien the next night. If I were a player on the Nets, after that loss I’d have trouble looking at myself in the mirror.

So then we come to tonight with the appearance of Carmelo Anthony in New Jersey, but in a Nuggets uniform. I agree with Avery Johnson’s statement that there is not much significance to ‘Melo playing at The Rock tonight. The Nets (correctly) put the trade rumors to bed 10 days ago and tonight just becomes another game that the team has to try and win. Denver is coming off of a loss to the Sixers last night, and they have not been playing that well. But after the Nets’ performance in their last two games, what would possibly make me think they would play well tonight? Games against Philly, Detroit and then Indiana again on Super Bowl Sunday round out the week. Enjoy.

According to Jonathon Givony of DraftExpress, the Nets have signed 28-year-old point guard Orien Greene of the D-League’s Utah Flash to a ten-day contract. Greene is a 6’4″ point guard who will assuredly shore up the bench while Jordan Farmar nurses his injury. Greene is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals per game for the Flash in 24 games, shooting 46% from the field and 37% from outside.

Greene is a former second-round pick by the Boston Celtics and has played 128 games in the NBA, never with much success. My guess is that he’s only around temporarily and will only see time until Farmar comes back.

You might have heard that some dude named Carmelo Anthony is arriving with the Denver Nuggets to play in Newark tonight. Given the rumors of about a month ago made it sound like Anthony would be in a Nets uniform by now, the Daily News’ Stefan Bondy as the all-important question to Nets fans: will you boo the “superstar” who allegedly spurred the team and Mikhail Prokhorov:

“(Anthony) played (Prokhorov) and the Nets like a fiddle and he danced around the meeting and kept denying it,” wrote Marciano. “So, yeah, I’d boo him.”

and

“If anything, he should get a huge ovation if any fan still wants him to come play for us. In my mind, there is absolutely no reason to boo him,” wrote Mike Squitieri, a former season ticket holder. “Despite what anyone thinks, he never said “No” to the Nets. He never said, “ONLY the Knicks.

I think the booing question boils down to who you believe was the villain in all of this. There were so many conflicting reports, but the two main storylines became Denver was asking for way too much from New Jersey, and Anthony was hesitating in signing an extension.

Meanwhile, speaking of trades and trade bait, Victor Nash at Whoop De Damn Doo asks whether or not fans dissatisfaction with Devin Harris is justified.

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

Box Score – Bucksetball – Brew Hoop

It’s possible that the Nets recent turnaround had more to do with playing in Newark than it did with Mikhail Prokhorov clearing the air and putting the Carmelo Anthony rumors to rest (though don’t tell that to Stefan Bondy, who does his best to make this trade talk a distraction for the Nets again). Because after winning four of five at the Prudential Center, including a couple of games against some decent teams (Utah, Memphis), the Nets have gone out on the road the past two nights and played like the distracted, lethargic, inefficient team of earlier this month when more than half the team was rumored to be shipped out to either Denver or Detroit.

After Friday’s drubbing to Indiana, one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA that found a way to score 124 points and shoot more than 60 percent from the field, I was looking for the Nets to make a statement against the ailing Bucks, who were slowly easing Brandon Jennings back into the rotation and were without SG Chris Douglas-Roberts, who predictably played with a vengeance the last time these two teams met (which coincidentally enough was right as the ‘Melo talk had taken it’s most heated turn of the season). The Nets played well enough in the first quarter, scoring 25 points and leading by three after that point, but the roof caved in during the second quarter and the Nets never really recovered, despite “hanging around” until the fourth quarter when the Bucks were up by double-digits throughout.

When the Nets are going bad, 12 minute stretches like last night’s second quarter have become a trademark for the team. They were outscored 23-12 during the quarter, made only four field goals, and were even missing free throws (both Brook Lopez and Travis Outlaw missed a pair as the Nets were free falling during the quarter).

The second quarter woes started initially with Devin Harris on the bench and no real back-up point guard to speak of with Jordan Farmar currently nursing a back injury. Johnson initially went with Ben Uzoh, but after three minutes, saw enough, including Keyon Dooling treating Uzoh like a point guard on a junior high school basketball team and just grabbing the ball away from him while he was bringing it up the court. Seriously, Dooling should have earned himself an out-of-school suspension for bullying on the play, because it was that pathetic for Uzoh who looked totally out of his element last night. I still think Uzoh has potential to be a solid backup PG in the NBA – he’s had games where he’s demonstrated worthwhile court vision, and during the summer league and preseason he showed enough of an outside shot where he could make it work. The problem is Uzoh needs to be learning the game with consistent playing time in the D-League. While I understand the team’s hesitance to shorten up some of their PG depth, especially because Devin Harris is so injury prone (he left last night’s game in the fourth with an injured shin), but if Uzoh is only going to get three minutes from Avery when Farmar is out and later Harris left the game, then the guy is never going to learn how to play the game to Avery’s liking, despite how awesome of a practice the coach obviously thinks he runs.

The second quarter got off to such a miserable start because there wasn’t a single playmaker on this team when Harris wasn’t on the floor. Devin Harris finished with a career high 16 assists, which is fantastic, but the Nets as a team only finished with 19 assists (on 31 FGs), and two of those assists belonged to Brook Lopez, and the third to Kris Humphries. In other words, not a single ball-handler not named Devin (by my count Uzoh, Sasha Vujacic and Anthony Morrow all took turns bringing the ball up the court when Harris was sitting) collected an assist. You can’t get any kind of offensive cohesion going when you have one guy trying to make plays, and 10 or 11 others standing around and/or looking to shoot whenever the ball touches their hands. There was one play before the end of the second quarter where I saw Milwaukee move the ball from one end of the perimeter to the other in three quick passes. For what it’s worth, they ended up missing the shot anyway, but you just never see the Nets move the ball around the floor like that to free up their shooters. The more you move the ball, the more likely someone on the defensive end is blowing their assignment – in this case, the Nets were cheating on the interior on Andrew Bogut, so Garrett Temple had a wide-open three in the corner.

And with bad ball movement comes bad shot selection. The Nets only attempted four field goals from the paint in the second quarter (hitting one) and only six shots within 15-feet from the basket (hitting two, including that one shot from the paint). With Harris out, at around the 9:20 mark, Sasha was dribbling near the right wing when the shot clock was winding down. The Machine moved the ball behind him to Kris Humphries of all people, who was forced to throw-up a 16-footer as time expired. At the end of the quarter, the Nets called a 20-second timeout and Devin Harris did one of his customary dribble until there’s barely enough time left to create a shot plays, before handing the ball off to Johan Petro for the 16-foot airbag. If that’s the play Avery Johnson wanted this team to run, then there’s no wonder why the Nets can’t get out of their own way offensively.

The last thing I said I was going to look at last night was the battle of the men in the middle – Brook Lopez and Andrew Bogut. Bogut has always given Lopez trouble, and Lopez himself has struggled offensively, only averaging 9 points in four games against Milwaukee last season. Lopez had a nice game offensively, scoring 26 points on 12-23 shooting, but only caroled 6 rebounds, and was at the free throw line four times (hitting two). Meanwhile, I think Bogut won the battle last night who scored less points on poorer shooting (17, 7-18), but had more of an impact grabbing 18 rebounds and blocking 7 shots.

The Nets (14-33) look to bounce back from their embarrassing effort in Indiana last night as they face the Milwaukee Bucks (18-26) on the road tonight. Here are a few keys to the game:

The Bounce Back: It might have been the worst performance of the year for the Nets last night as they couldn’t score, or defend against Indiana. As the second half of a back-to-back, the Nets need to plain show up tonight, and not get shellacked again.

No Vendettas: As predicted, former Net Chris Doulgas-Roberts scorched the Nets back in December as the team was in the midst of trade rumors, going off for 24 points on 9-14 shooting. Even the biggest CDR fans in NJ realize he’s only capable of doing that when properly motivated (otherwise, he’d still be a Net), so let’s hope the defense has an answer for him tonight.

Center Play: Brook Lopez had 28 points but only 1 rebound last night. A better all around effort is needed from the Nets franchise player, as he faces up with a Center in Andrew Bogut who has always given Brook a hard time in the post.

Johan Petro watches as Mike Dunleavy dunks the Nets.

Box Score – Eight Points, Nine Seconds – Indy Cornrows

I’ve mentioned before that one of my favorite parts of this Nets team is their potential to explode at any given moment. That, at their best, the Nets run their offensive sets well, find open shots, and knock down good looks over and over. That they fly ahead of their competition in transition, take their time in the half-court without stalling, and in the end, play smart, efficient basketball that leads to easy victories.

Well, we saw that team last night. Unfortunately, it was the Indiana Pacers.

One thing I’ve noticed watching Indiana this season is their unbelievable penchant for ball movement. They’re always swinging the ball rapid-fire around the perimeter until they find an open shot, or looking inside to Hibbert to create mismatches. Few teams in the NBA move the ball that well, and when the Pacers do it they’re weirdly unstoppable. It’s how they dismantled the Miami Heat earlier this season, and it’s how they dismantled New Jersey last night.

The Nets just couldn’t figure them out for three quarters. It’s not that they were running different plays – they just looked like they belonged in different leagues.

For one, the perimeter defense was absolutely appalling. The Pacers routinely had Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, and Danny Granger on the floor at the same time, and the Nets simply didn’t have enough defenders to handle them. The Pacers seriously utilized their height advantage; for extended periods, the Nets had 6’5″ Anthony Morrow & 6’6″ Sasha Vujacic guarding the 6’8″ Granger & 6’9″ Dunleavy. All it took was one of those guys to get lost on defense with the rapid-fire ball movement (which didn’t take long), a quick pass to the perimeter, and the rest was long-range history.

The numbers tell the story: Granger & Dunleavy combined for 48 points on a blistering 10-13 from beyond the arc.

The Pacers broke the century mark before the third quarter ended, dropping at least 32 points in each of the first three frames. They made it look effortless. After 3 quarters, the Pacers were shooting 64% from the field and a ridiculous 63% from outside. Dunleavy kept his pace of a point per minute consistent throughout the game, shooting 11-13 from the field through the first three frames and finishing the game with 30 points. The Nets just couldn’t stop him, even on the few occasions they tried.

I know I keep referencing the first three quarters, but that’s because the fourth just did not matter. The game was over midway through the third. The rest was only played because the NBA has rules for this sort of thing, that all 48 minutes must be played for an NBA game to count. It was for show, and nothing more.

Brook Lopez had another Ray Allen game last night. He shot 12-17 from the field and dropped 28 points, and by my count, he was a torrential 8-9 on jumpers. It was absolutely unstoppable. I don’t think the ball even touched the rim for the first 24 minutes – just swish after swish. I love when Brook has fantastic offensive nights like this. Really, I do. I’m a huge fan of efficient interior scoring. But (and there’s always a but) one rebound, one blocked shot, and zero assists… I don’t know how many times I can use the word “inexcusable” in a season. But trust me, I’ll stretch my limits as far as I can.

Sadly, Brook was the Nets’ best player last night. Outlaw started strong, with 7 early points and 12 at the half, but didn’t score again and ended his night with 25 frustrating minutes. Other than Brook, the Nets combined to shoot 41% from the field, which isn’t terrible, until you realize that they allowed their opponent to shoot a ridiculous 70% effective field goal percentage and had no other scorers in double figures.

There was definitely a fair amount of frustration last night, since the Nets just didn’t know what to do on either side of the floor. Kris Humphries looked like 2009 Kris Humphries (Mr. Tunnel Vision) on his first two touches and then barely touched the ball again in his 14 minutes. Anthony Morrow was completely cast aside in the offense, as the Nets barely ran any sets for him when he was in the game. A source at the game noted to me via a private message that Morrow looked annoyed with the team, not shaking any hands on the bench after his stint in the first quarter. That’s childish behavior, even if you’re understandably frustrated.

So the high from the homestand comes to a screeching halt. Despite an awesome display of basketball in Newark this past week, the team is still defined by its weaknesses; the lack of a go-to perimeter scorer, the complete lack of perimeter defense, and the curious desire of Avery Johnson to let Johan Petro shoot 17-footers whenever he wants. (I have to give him credit for making a few last night, though.) There’s nothing they can do now about this loss. Just have to watch the video, realize the weaknesses, strap up, and take on Milwaukee tonight.

More thoughts after the jump.

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Fresh off their best homestand since 2008, the New Jersey Nets take on the Indiana Pacers in Indianapolis this evening. Indiana is 16-26 this year, with a 10-11 home record. The Pacers are led by oft-rumored Danny Granger, who’s shooting a career-worst 48.7% effective field goal percentage, and Roy Hibbert, who like Brook Lopez is having a difficult time putting the ball in the basket in his third season (43.6% from the field). The Pacers boast the 9th-best defensive efficiency in the NBA, but are 24th offensively. Damion James is still out for the Nets, as is Brandon Rush for the Pacers. Troy Murphy is still at home, looking for his lost puppy or something.

Here are a few things to look out for in tonight’s game.

Control the glass. Indiana doesn’t stand out very much, but one of the few places they shine is on the defensive end – as mentioned, they’re 9th in the NBA in defense. One of the big reasons for that is their ability to limit opponents to one rebound. They’re tied for sixth in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage, grabbing as many defensive rebounds as the Miami Heat. The Nets boast two outstanding offensive rebounders at the power forward position (Kris Humphries & Derrick Favors), and one of them should be on the floor at all times. Weirdly, the Pacers are the polar opposite at grabbing offensive rebounds – actually tied for sixth-worst, but this time with the Knicks.

Go inside. Roy Hibbert is a good defensive player, but here’s the rest of the big men on Indiana: Josh McRoberts, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster, & Solomon Jones. There’s a lot of holes in that defense. Humphries & Favors should have a field day with these two – Humphries does everything Hansbrough does, but better; and Favors can jump over anyone on that offense. If Lopez can score enough to limit Hibbert’s eagerness for help defense, the Nets should be able to dominate the paint.

Don’t foul. The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA at drawing fouls that lead to free throws – they’re 3rd-worst in the NBA at free throws per field goal attempt. The Nets, unfortunately, have the third-most personal fouls in the NBA. No player on the Pacers other than Danny Granger averages more than three free throw attempts per game, and if they can continue to limit their fouls (as they did on this five-game stand) they could pick up right where they left off Wednesday.

For more news & analysis on the Indiana Pacers, check out TrueHoop affiliate 8 Points, 9 Seconds.