Nets Are Scorching

This weekend, I had the absolute pleasure of covering the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference for ESPN and the TrueHoop Network. The panels & presentations were absolutely brilliant throughout, and while I felt like an idiot at the beginning of the conference, I felt like slightly less of an idiot afterwards.

Here are some bullet points from the conference:

• Daryl Morey noted during one of the panels that twenty of the league’s 30 teams have an analytics department. The Nets, having hired Milton Lee earlier this year, are thankfully are one of these teams. However, the impression I got from some of the guys there is that the Nets aren’t really on the forefront of analytics. Given the absolute brilliant stuff I saw this weekend, I hope the Nets continue to move closer to it than further away.
• One of the most impressive pieces from the weekend was Sandy Weil’s optical tracking data, which looks at how well players shoot as a function of the defense on the floor. For example: a defender within three feet drops expected field goal percentage from 50 percent to 38 percent, and field goal percentage overall drops one percentage point every 1.5 feet away from the rim (within standard ranges). Absolutely fascinating stuff, and applicable to the Nets: every time Travis Outlaw takes a contested jumper, I can now relax knowing that the data confirms what a bad decision it was. (Wait, what?)
• Speaking of Travis Outlaw, this year’s winner for the best research paper was Arup Sen, who did a phenomenal piece on the moral hazard of long-term guaranteed contracts. Sen looked at how players performed in the final years of their old contracts as opposed to the first year of their new ones, and found a significant dropoff in production. This falls in line with the conventional wisdom of the “contract year,” and I think also explains how players can get lazy after signing that long-term deal. Sen proposed that the league should be looking more toward short-term deals in the future to maximize player performance.
• Speaking of the league looking toward short-term deals (man, these bullets really have continuity!) I had the pleasure of chatting with Bill Simmons for a few minutes. His impression was that the league’s not going to limit the salary cap as much as the length of contracts in the new collective bargaining agreement. He also doesn’t think the Nets have a great shot at re-signing Deron Williams, but gives them a chance and agreed that they had to make the deal. (His off-the-cuff odds of them re-signing him were 1 in 3.)
• I wrote a piece on Matthew Goldman’s ideas about dynamic efficiency, which I’ve since spoken with him about. His work is fascinating, and offers up some very interesting conclusions. You can read my piece here.
• Mark Cuban also listed TrueHoop sister site NBA Playbook as one of his favorite sites. This has added meaning for us, since the genius behind that site is none other than NaS editor emeritus Sebastian Pruiti. I don’t want to speak for him, but I know if Cuban mentioned us, the phrase “walking on air” wouldn’t have done it justice.
• I have to say: it’s clear watching Cuban talk just exactly why he’s a billionaire. The guy is ten steps ahead of all the guys who are ten steps ahead. If the Nets truly have the Russian Mark Cuban, they’re in very good hands. Now if only they’d utilize that tracking data…
• Sloan will soon have video from every single panel available on their home page. When they do, I highly suggest you watch every single one.

I’m a little late in putting this up, but a new blog out there, Shaky Ankles, has some fantastic video of Deron Williams putting a hurting on Sonny Weems using one of his patented crossovers. Definitely check it out.

In his Nets Insider column over at the Yes Network, Al Iannazzone discusses the idea of Deron Williams making his teammates better. It was something many of us predicted would happen – a la Jason Kidd 10 years ago – but Al is looking specifically at the production of the Nets’ frontcourt:

One player can’t win games every night, but he can make a difference, and Williams has — measurably. Again, it’s the Raptors, but Lopez averaged 29.5 points, and Humphries put up 19 points and 17 rebounds in the two games. Staying with Lopez, everyone has been on him all season about his lack of double-doubles. Granted, it took all of regulation and three overtimes in O2 Arena, but Lopez had an oh-boy game with 34 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks, almost his first triple-double. Since the Williams acquisition, Lopez is averaging 24.2 points and 8.2 rebounds, and Humphries is averaging 15.8 points and 13.2 boards.

Lopez is the player most worth watching here for obvious reasons. He was hailed as a franchise center before the season started, but a dip in his shooting percentage and the further erosion of his rebounding skills, have caused a number of people to dream about Dwight Howard in 2012. While Howard is a clear upgrade over Lopez, no matter how good he’s playing, if Lopez keeps this up, that talk should quiet down over the short-term. I would love to see the Nets find a way to win with Lopez still on the roster. I still think he’s a very good player.

AP Photo/Tom Hevezi

Wow. What an exciting and crazy game that could have been won by either the New Jersey Nets or Toronto Raptors. However, in the end it was the Nets and Travis Outlaw that pulled out the 137-136 triple overtime victory for the States-side team and sweep the two games played at the O2 Arena in London. Yes, that’s right, I said Travis Outlaw. Read more…

Second verse, same as the first. The Nets (18-43) finish their two-game set against the Toronto Raptors (17-45) in the NBA’s first game’s in London. The Nets are looking to sweep their first back-to-back this season. Here’s how they can do it:

Trust Who Got You There Yesterday: Deron Williams and Brook Lopez both had good games yesterday, but without the performances of role players like Damion James, Sundiata Gaines and Kris Humphries, they wouldn’t have won. Gaines needs to get minutes, James needs to remain the top option over Travis Outlaw and Hump should just be Hump. We don’t need to see guys like Stephen Graham or Ben Uzoh today, unless there’s an injury.

How Does Toronto Deal with Brook? Amir Johnson seemed overmatched guarding Lopez so expect Toronto to double team. That means someone is going to be open. With Anthony Morrow out with a concussion, Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar need to hit their open threes.

Watch DeMar DeRozan: He scored 30 points on 12-19 shooting and the only wing defender able to force him into a bad shot was Gaines. The Nets need to keep live bodies on DeRozan and Lopez and Hump need to be able to come over and help if DeRozan blows by his defender and has a path to the rim.

For more Raptors insights, be sure to check THN blog Raptors Republic.

Yeah, this post is going to have gratuitous amounts of Sundiata Gaines. • AP Photo/Tom Hevezi

Box Score – Raptors Republic – Raptors HQ

For all of this talk about Deron Williams attracting Dwight Howard, and how the NBA is a superstar league, you got to just embrace it and love it when a 6’1″ journeyman direct from the D-League helps turn the tide of the game in the Nets favor.

Yesterday’s 116-103 Nets victory over the Toronto Raptors in London – the first NBA game played on European soil – may end up being the peak of Sundiata Gaines’ Nets career. It doesn’t matter, because in similar fashion to what he did in Utah last year, when I think back years from now about the Nets and their historic trip to London, I’m going to think about Gaines, who in a six minute timeframe to start the 4th quarter, propelled the Nets on a 20-6 run that put them ahead and kept them ahead for good.

Prior to the start of the 4th, the Nets were in a back and forth battle, mostly trailing the Raptors, including being down 51-47 at the half, and then 81-78 after the 3rd. The game was looking eerily similar to the first three of the Deron Williams-era. The offense looked fluid but the defense was absent. They allowed 28 and 30 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, Demar DeRozan already had passed 20 points before the start of the 4th, and rookie Ed Davis was making a fool of the Nets frontcourt in his 22 minutes, going 6-6 from the field for 12 points. Meanwhile, in the first three quarters, Deron Williams was closing in on a double-double, but was having a difficult time shooting, while Brook Lopez had a monster start, only to disappear for a chunk of the second half (though he did finish strong). And an injury to Anthony Morrow had Avery Johnson throwing bizarro-world lineups out there, including a Johan Petro-Saha Vujacic-Travis Outlaw-Jordan Farmar-Stephen Graham rotation to start the 2nd quarter, that just made me throw up a little in my mouth writing it, and promptly allowed a 10-0 run to the Raptors to start the quarter.

And then Avery turned to Gaines for the 4th, initially in a dual-PG set with Jordan Farmar, and then eventually with Deron Williams, who had teamed with Gaines in Utah last year (and may have been responsible for rescuing him from the D-League and bringing him to the Nets). While I think Ben Uzoh has some tools to be a nice backup PG option in this league, Gaines immediately looked more confident bringing the ball up the court, and then working off the ball when Farmar was setting up plays. His first two FGs came on two fearless drives to the basket, including a count-it and the foul play where he sank the free throw. He then found Damion James in the corner from about 17-feet out for jumper, then drilled a 19-footer of his own to put the Nets up 6. After a Johan Petro (!) three-point play, Gaines found Lopez from about six-feet out, to put the Nets up 11, forcing the Raptors to call the timeout, and officially swinging the momentum in the Nets favor for good. His final line in 8 minutes was 7 points on 3-3 shooting, with 2 assists and 1 steal. He impacted nearly every play he was on the floor for, and even flashed some nice defense, playing DeRozan straight-up out on the wing and forcing him into a 20-foot fade-away jumper, which he missed.

These are the kinds of performances that ultimately make me an NBA fan. Most Nets fans remember the drama of the 3OT Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Pistons, but for me, what sticks out the most was how the oft-used Brian Scalabrine was forced into action because of the team’s foul troubles, and ended hitting clutch three after clutch three. When the Nets lost Kenny Anderson for the season in 1993, I remember them traveling to Phoenix, the best team in the NBA at the time, and blowing their doors off lead by Rumeal Robinson – a college superstar who had done very little of note in the NBA at that point. These are the moments where I truly “love this game.”

A few more non-Gaines thoughts after the jump:

Read more…

In a must-read article for anyone who’s excited about the Nets move to Brooklyn next year (I can’t believe I can write next year now and not be considered a crazy person), the Associated Press talks about the brewing Nets-Knicks rivalry once both teams occupy New York City.

Fans of the two teams taunted one another last year with in-your-face billboards near each other’s arenas. And on Thursday, Knicks star Amare Stoudemire helped New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg dedicate a basketball court just blocks from the Nets’ future Brooklyn home.

Nets boosters are already tapping into Dodgers nostalgia — and Knicks fans are responding with dismissiveness.

Dismissiveness indeed. Check out this statement from the Knicks:

“While we always respect any competition, the Garden will always be the Garden,” said Barry Watkins, a spokesman for the Knicks and their home, Madison Square Garden. “Madison Square Garden is located in the heart of New York City, sitting on top of the busiest transportation hub in the nation. The Garden hosts over 400 events annually and has been a destination for New Yorkers and visitors to the city for over 130 years.”

What does that even mean? The Garden is the Garden? The one Knicks people talk about the Garden, you would think the building came to life every night to teach Ebenezer Scrooge about the meaning of basketball. Meanwhile, the Knicks haven’t played a significant game at the Garden in more than 10 years, and have just as many NBA Finals appearances in my lifetime as the Nets. And who can forget what happened way back in 2004 when Stephon Marbury came to NY and the “Graden was Back” and all that and the Nets beat them like a government mule during the Playoffs. There was so much crying coming from the Knicks players and fans, I thought the local Y was going to start running a weekly support group.

But fear not, those that understand that the aura of Brooklyn may actually have significance approaching that of “The Garden” will smile at what Brooklyn resident and writer Michael Shapiro says:

“It’s going to be really hard for me to root against a Brooklyn team,” he said. “Call me in two years.”

Cheerio! The Nets (17-43) look to break their six-game losing streak by crossing the Atlantic Ocean to London and facing the Toronto Raptors (17-44) in a back-to-back set today and tomorrow afternoon. Here are some keys to the game to consider, before you grab a cup of tea, some biscuits, and watch:

Health of our PGs: Deron Williams and Jordan Farmar are both apparently “available” and ready to play tonight but what should our expectations be? Williams is gutting out a tendon issue in his non-shooting hand, something that’s going to plague him the rest of the season. He wants to play, which is great, but that might have something to do with his 13-39 shooting since joining the team. Farmar’s status puts Ben Uzoh on notice, who I thought, once again, did a decent job filling in for Jordan in his absence, and may make his reasonable but still significant contract expendable in the off-season. Remember, cap room pople. We needs it.

Andrea Bargnani: Toronto’s Center scored 32 points and grabbed 9 rebounds the last time these two team’s met and as we witnessed on Monday night, the Nets frontcourt has a hard time defending against outside shooting big men. Bargnani is one of the best when it comes to shooting big men, so Brook Lopez and Kris Humphries are going to have to get out of their comfort zone and learn how to defend effectively or he’s going to go bananas on this team.

Just Win Something: The Nets need to get this monkey off their backs and get their first win of the Deron Williams era. The timing has been unfortunate, as their first three games back from the all-star break came against the best team in the NBA in San Antonio, and two Western Conference team’s that have been playing better recently. The Raptors are a bad team, as bad as the Nets but without the luxury of adding the best PG in the game the past week. The Nets HAVE to split these games, and there’s honestly no reason why they can’t sweep. Enough with the excuses. Start with playing a little bit of defense and the rest should follow.