Nets Are Scorching

2010-2011 Stats: 64 GP, 11 GS, 20.7 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.8 BPG, 0.6 SPG, .426 FG%, .401% 3P%, .837 FT%, 12.3 PER

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: Shawne Williams is one of the best three-point shooters in the league. Williams shot an eFG% of 60.2% from three, which is 10% higher than league average. He can space the floor for a dynamic point guard like Deron Williams. Whenver Deron is playing with him, Shawne Williams will benefit from a plethora of open shots. Shawne is also a very efficient offensive player, with an offensive rating of 111, very much above the league average. He’s also only 25, so his production shouldn’t decrease over the next few seasons. Basically, Shawne Williams will provide the Nets with dynamic shooting as well as the honor of having the most Sean/Shaun/Shawne Williams’ in league history.

Don’t Risk the Fine: This is a loaded section. Firstly, Williams has had major character issues throughout his entire career. The guy has probably the ugliest record of any player in the league (ok, it’s close between him and Ron Artest). To wit: in 2007, Williams was charged with possession of marijuana. In 2010, he was charged with selling a codeine substance and was put on six month probation. The Nets might not want to deal with such a troublemaking player, especially a guy who isn’t exactly a starting caliber player (he produced 2.5 Win Shares in 10-11). On top of all that, it’s hard to imagine that Williams can keep up his hot shooting. Williams was never considered to be a high caliber shooter in his career until he joined the Knicks. Just like with Wilson Chandler, this could be a product of Mike D’Antoni’s system rather than Williams’ red-hot ability. The guy isn’t really a top-notch defender (or close, really) so his only dimension on the floor is to hit threes (seriously, the guy shot under 34% from the field from everywhere else).

And the Winner is….Avoid (but does it really matter?): Essentially, Williams is a poor man’s Anthony Morrow. He is by no means a bad player and will fill his role as a shooter nicely. However, the Nets don’t need shooters; the Nets need impact players. Getting Shawn Williams would be nice, but a completely useless endeavor. Unless the Nets can get him for very cheap (literally in the 1-2 million dollar range), there would be no reason to pursue the talented, yet troubled small forward. Besides, it is very unlikely that Williams is pried away from the Knicks to begin with. Williams could be an effective role player on many teams; just not this one.

After a 24-58 season, the New Jersey Nets will have to make some changes heading into 2012. This week, Nets are Scorching takes a closer look at some soon-to-be-available names.

Stats: 72 G, 51 GS, 22.2 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.8 BPG, .547 FG%, .739 FT%, 116 ORtg, 16.08 PER

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: The Nets are going to lack frontcourt depth this season unless they can resign Kris Humphries at a reasonable rate and Avery Johnson comes to his senses and plays Travis Outlaw at power forward (assuming they can’t find an idiot to take him off their hands). As a result, they need a big body like Josh McRoberts to eat up some minutes and keep Johan Petro on the bench.

McRoberts actually isn’t as terrible as you might sense he is. Sometimes you just get a feeling from watching players at times that they are terrible. I once had that feeling, but it turns out he’s not as abysmal as I once thought. He’s efficient shooting the basketball, notching a true-shooting percentage north of 60 percent this season, and he has some range on his jumper. Still, he has a tendency to take too many threes, which he can’t make consistently, so he should work on improving his shot selection. Furthermore, he was third among power forwards playing 20 or more minutes a game with a 22.0 assist ratio, so he can find the open man and isn’t plagued with tunnel vision.

Don’t Risk The Fine: Still, he does have his weaknesses. In addition to his improvable shot selection as mentioned above, McRoberts lacks the appropriate strength, mobility, and athleticism to be a factor on defense. Conditioning was also once a problem for him, but he seemed to have alleviated those concerns with his performance this season.

In addition, he’s a poor rebounder. He’s not Brook Lopez bad, but his rebound rate of 13.3 leaves much to be desired for a power forward standing 6-foot-10. Think about having Lopez and him in the same lineup — actually, who would want to?

And The Winner Is… Avoid: I can’t lie and say I’ve watched a ton of McRoberts over the years, but I also can’t lie and say I want to watch 82 games of him next season. He has the drive and motor typical of Duke players, but he also lacks the true natural talent like most Duke’s players. In McRoberts’ case, the former isn’t meaningful enough to justify the latter.

After a 24-58 season, the New Jersey Nets will have to make some changes heading into 2012. This week, Nets are Scorching takes a closer look at some soon-to-be-available names.

Stats: 82 GP, 59 GS, 7.6 PPG, 30.8 MPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG, 1.6 SPG, .456 FG%, .391 3p%, .645 FT%, 12.37 PER

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: Shane Battier is a great example of a player who is going to bring lots of positives to your team, without a lot of negatives. At this point in his career he is what he is – an elite wing defender who can space the floor for you on offense with his ability to hit the three point shot – that’s what Battier is and has been for a longtime. There is much more that Battier brings to the table, however, and that can be summed up with one word, intangibles. Battier brings all the things that winning basketball teams need – leadership, toughness, basketball IQ and high character. Battier ranks 24^th in the league in two year adjusted +/-. (Plus-Minus results adjusted to account for both the teammates and the opponents on the floor with a player over the course of the season. This value is based on two years of data including the playoffs. Playoffs are weighted at 2x the weight of the regular seasons with each regular season rated equally. via basketballvalue.com) His 2.44 +/- puts him ahead of players such as Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony to name a few. There is simply no denying the type of impact a player such as Battier can have a locker room, especially one with young players on the roster, such as the Nets.

Don’t Risk the Fine: Quite honestly in terms of his on the court and off the court contributions, there aren’t a lot of great reasons to not pursue Shane Battier. Simply put, adding him to your roster will make your team better. What I will say is this, though. Shane Battier seems to be the type of player that is added to a team already poised to make a deep playoff run. The final piece if you will. Adding Battier to the Nets roster today, maybe, puts them in contention for the 8^th seed in the playoffs. I would argue, that the money it’s going to take to sign Battier could go to a younger player, one who has more room to grow and develop into a potential all-star, (such as a Thaddeus Young), or dividing that money up and spending less on a player or two who may be able to provide the same type of contributions that Battier would (such as Luc Mbah a Moute).

And the Winner is…Avoid: At the end of the day, as I said earlier, Battier is only going to improve your roster. But I believe the market will be pretty high for Battier. It’s not just the Nets who are looking to add elite defenders. Therefore the money it may take to sign him, could be better spent being dispersed among a few free agents, or ones to potentially develop into major contributors down the line.

After a 24-58 season, the New Jersey Nets will have to make some changes heading into 2012. This week, Nets are Scorching takes a closer look at some soon-to-be-available names.

Stats: 64 G, 62 GS, 31.2 MPG, 11.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.2 BPG, .467 FG%, .367 3P%, .770 FG%, 112 ORtg, 16.6 PER

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: The word “multitalented” doesn’t really do him justice. Andrei Kirilenko can do it all. He’s not the best at anything, or even close, but he can consistently do a lot of things that help a basketball team. He’s a long, capable defender who can pick off steals and block shots. He takes good angles on cuts to the basket and runs ahead in transition. He can score in isolation, in the post, and can spread the floor by spotting up from deep. He can snare rebounds on both sides of the floor and is a willing passer.

Kirilenko also has two ties to the New Jersey Nets franchise already: he has played with Deron Williams since Deron was drafted in 2005 (until, obviously, this February) and has had very good things to say about Russian Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who he has dinner with in Russia during every offseason.

Though it seems like Kirilenko has been around since the dawn of time, he is still just 30 years old and certainly has a few years in the tank. Plus, a change of scenery could do wonders for him – Kirilenko had openly clashed with Jerry Sloan in Utah and his production, once outstanding, dovetailed into “above average” for the past five years. Much of that was a reduction in his role, but with a new coach, a new system, a familiar owner, and new scenery, we could see a revived Kirilenko, the same one that once led the league in blocks per game. (Seriously!)

Don’t Risk The Fine: Though he can spot up from beyond the arc, you don’t want him spotting up from anywhere else. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Kirilenko shot 37% on spot-up opportunities from 3 and only 36% from 2. Looking at the game tape, it’s usually just a matter of space – when you spot up from deep, there’s a good chance you’re more open than spotting up from closer to the basket.

He’s also not a particularly durable player. Like Kenyon Martin, Kirilenko has missed at least 10 games in every season since 2003-04, and his production has tailed off in the final months of the past three seasons. Kirilenko seems more fatigued in March games than December ones – he doesn’t run as fast, he doesn’t get the same lift on jumpers, he’s not as aggressive, and he gets much more of his movement stifled by defensive pressure.

Additionally, I ask the same question about Kirilenko that I do about every guy we’re looking at this week – if 20% of your starting lineup is this guy, can you win a championship? Truthfully, I don’t know. Maybe you can, but if you add Kirilenko, the Nets are starting to look an awful lot like Jazz 2.0 – maybe they become that team that wins 45-50 games every season, makes the playoffs, and gets smoked by a real contender in the first round. I’d take that fate over what the Nets have dealt with the past few years, but you have to consider his limited upside when compared to younger guys we’ve seen this week like Thaddeus Young and Wilson Chandler.

And The Winner Is… Tamper: Though I do think there are better options available, I’ve always been a big fan of Kirilenko’s game and he’s got some personal incentives to join the Nets. He’ll probably come at a decent price, though the standard caveat about an unknown CBA looms. While the Nets shouldn’t be stagnant with Kirilenko at the 3 – there are certainly upgrades to be found – if they do end up with him, he’s a very good complimentary piece with a fair amount of gas in the tank.

I highly suggest you take a look at Tim Donahue’s work over at Eight Points, Nine Seconds, where today he takes a close, comprehensive, and understandably incomplete look at the CBA talks and some of the discourse that has circulated as a result of it.

Tim has, in his words, “about 20 years” of experience in financial and operations analysis, and his viewpoint is certainly a lot more well-rounded than mine. If you want to learn a little more about the business side of the ball, I highly suggest it.

After a 24-58 season, the New Jersey Nets will have to make some changes heading into 2012. This week, Nets are Scorching takes a closer look at some soon-to-be-available names.

Career Stats (DNP in 2010-2011): 82 G, 60 GS, 23.9 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.4 SPG, 1.4 BPG, .577 FG%, .666 FT%, 117 ORtg, 23.14 PER in 2009–2010

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: Greg Oden is such an interesting case. We have seen so little of him, but when he has managed to suit up, he has been an absolute behemoth on the court on a per-minute basis. Oden put up astronomical levels of efficiency in his first two seasons for a player that young, and were it not for Kevin Durant’s amazing advancement, those numbers would be worthy of the No. 1 pick used by Portland to select him.

Off the bat, Oden wasn’t a major producer on offense, but he didn’t take bad shots and put up a fantastic field-goal percentage as a result. He has no range on his jump shot, but with time in the gym with a good bigs coach, he could develop a reliable post game on which to base his offense. His size allows him to be a solid screen-setter, and he has an affinity to grab boards on the offensive glass for easy second-chance opportunities.

On defense, Oden has all the tools to be an elite post defender. He has size, strength, and enough ups to block almost four shots every 40 minutes of playing time. He won’t be outmuscled on the glass, denying opposing teams multiple-possession trips, and he won’t be afraid to give hard fouls, a problem that plagued the Nets this season.

When Oden is on the court, he performs to a level totally worth a spot in a starting five. Alas …

Don’t Risk The Fine: Unfortunately, this signing would likely be an exercise in how to waste money. Thus far in his career, Oden has played exactly a quarter of games for which he was eligible, giving new meaning to injury proneness. His knees are greater liabilities than Eddy Curry’s appetite, and there is no reason to believe he’ll ever suit up for a full 82 games, not to mention the playoffs the Nets are hoping for.

Oden certainly wouldn’t carry the price tag of an elite player, but the offer he signs could be around $5 million or $6 million per season, too hefty a number for the Nets to invest in a player that doesn’t even bother changing out of the suit he wears on the sidelines during games. Even if he can stay healthy for a full season, he will be on a meticulously monitored minutes limit, and the Nets wouldn’t be able to extract optimal value out of him.

Oh, and they also have Brook Lopez. The only player worth shelving him for is still in Orlando.

And The Winner Is … Avoid: If I were Billy King, I would need to see overwhelming evidence that Oden isn’t going to be out for the season again before I even consider going to the negotiating table with him. And if I do, I insist the deal be only partially guaranteed, with incentives based on games and minutes played. Reality is, though, that he won’t sign with the Nets if those are the conditions. That’s why they shouldn’t even trifle with the former top pick.

Larry Brown, former Nets’ coach and Hall of Famer, told Stefan Bondy that the Nets are in a good position going into the future. Brown cites the acquisition of Deron Williams and the effectiveness of Billy King and Avery Johnson as the reasons for why the Nets are primed for success.

Obviously, Larry Brown was a great coach throughout his entire career. When Brown says something, he means it. This time, he seems to know what he is talking about. Hopefully, the Nets are as successful as he predicts they will be.

After a 24-58 season, the New Jersey Nets will have to make some changes heading into 2012. This week, Nets are Scorching takes a closer look at some soon-to-be-available names.

Homecoming?

Stats: 48 G, 48 GS, 25.7 MPG, 8.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG, .511 FG%, .222 3P%, .583 FT%, 107 ORtg, 14.2 PER

Why Billy King Should Be Texting Him Right Now: I know you remember this guy. The #1 overall pick in 2000, Martin never lived up to those expectations but still became a solid player on both sides of the floor. I remember him as a player constantly bursting with intensity, for better or for worse – though I can’t place the exact date, I distinctly remember Martin being called for a technical foul after exploding at a referee for a call… only to find out later that the call actually went in his favor. Before trading him to Denver, Martin put up 18-9 and 17-10 seasons in New Jersey and established himself as a serious threat on two title-run teams.

In 2004 and on the heels of a new contract, the Nets traded him to the Denver Nuggets – interestingly enough, run by Kiki Vandeweghe at the time – for three first-round draft picks. While the picks ended up being mostly of little consequence, the Nets are generally considered to have won the trade, as Martin’s production dipped off and knee surgery soon followed.

Seven years later, Martin is 33 and has found his late-career niche: a tough, bruising big man who can give a very good team a solid 25-30 minutes per game. He’s not an explosive scorer – he never really was – but he’s learned how to reduce his role and had the second-best field goal percentage of his career this past year. He’s mostly been able to channel that intensity into more productive means, and it seems like he now understands his limits much better than ever before. He also has made his intentions clear: he wants to play for a winner above all else.

Really, the reason I think K-Mart would fit well in his old New Jersey uniform is that intensity factor. The Nets haven’t had anyone in a long time who other teams were really scared of. Someone who would stand up for his teammates at all costs. In the early 2000s, if Martin perceived a threat towards Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd, even guys like Lucious Harris, he’d be in someone’s face ready to throw down. I don’t condone fighting – far from it – but I do appreciate a player willing to eschew going through the motions and go to war. K-Mart’s one of those guys.

Don’t Risk The Fine: Kenyon Martin is 33 and has had microfracture surgeries on both knees. We could just leave it at that, really, but there’s more to it. As mentioned, K-Mart’s an intense person – and sometimes he brings an intensity that’s truly not needed or helpful. He’s no stranger to controversy, either – he’s been fined by the league multiple times for both on and off the court indiscretions, including one particularly profane tirade launched at Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban.

(To be fair, Cuban yelled at his mother. You never yell at Kenyon Martin’s mother.)

Martin will be 34 for most of next season, and while his production is steady it’s still not very good. He’s not a player you’d rely on in a series – heck, he was arguably the least effective starter on a team that was just bumped from the first round in five games. He’s not a major impact player, and hasn’t been for half a decade.

And The Winner Is… Avoid: Unless he’s the third or fourth signing of the offseason after the Nets have signed other pieces to play up front, the Nets probably shouldn’t bring back one of their popular players from a decade ago. Between the injury history and the age factor, I don’t have a lot of faith in Martin playing a substantial role, or even a substantial amount of time – he’s missed at least 10 games (and usually much more) in every season since his New Jersey days. I do like Kenyon Martin and what he brings to the table, but if the Nets look to him as a major cog of a championship team, I’d have to say that they should pass.