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Pregame 1-on-1: Nets-Knicks Open Thread, 7 P.M.

Two weeks ago, the Nets led the Knicks in a game of professional basketball. Then some third-string point guard entered the game. Ten games and nine losses later, the Nets seek revenge against point robot Jeremy Lin and his randomly assembled cast of characters that deliberately excludes Carmelo Anthony.

Joining me to take a look at tonight’s game and the teams that’ll play it is Knickerblogger-er Jim Cavan. As the 1-on-1 goes, I’ll ask Jim three questions about the Knicks, and he’ll ask me three on the Nets.

Jim on the New York Knicks

1) when is the Lin train derailing? Tonight? Next week? Never?

Last stop, Springfield, baby! In all seriousness, I’m looking forward as much as the next person to the day when a Lin 20-10 doesn’t occupy 80% of a SportsCenter broadcast. With every game, the fact that Jeremy Lin’s talents aren’t somehow disappearing as quickly as they arose gets thrown into higher and higher relief. As far as how he finishes out the season, my prediction from a few weeks ago still stands: I think he’ll end the year averaging in the neighborhood of 15 or 16 points and eight or nine dimes – a hell of a year, all things considered. As for tonight, I expect an all-out slugfest with Deron Williams, who I’m certain has spent the better part of the last two weeks dart-shredding a Lin poster.

2) Talk to me about the Amare/Lin pairing.

Thus far, it’s clear that the two’s chemistry won’t be as instantaneous or as obvious as we thought or hoped. At this point, Lin clearly prefers Chandler as his P&R sidekick, looking more content to swing the ball to Amar’e at the weak side elbow or wing, where the latter has proven to be…. Umm…. Not good? Part of it has to do with the actual picks themselves: Chandler’s are almost always solid and steady – the rolls picture perfect. In contrast, and as with other facets of his game thus far this year – the fact that he couldn’t defend an engine-less Buick on defense, for instance – Amare’s picks are at best inconsistent, and at worst half-assed. These things take time, however, so I’m not ready to rule out an effective calibration just yet.

3) In your estimation, is this team better off without Carmelo Anthony, who’s likely to return in tonight’s game?

Look, Renaldo Balkman had his opportunities, and just basically squan…. Oh, Melo! That guy! Right. If you asked me this question a month ago, my answer would’ve been a resounding maybe. But Lin’s ascendance has changed the whole narrative, not least of all with respect to Melo’s role in the offense. For the time being, I’m willing to take Anthony at his word that he’s chupped to bits to finally have a capable floor general manning the helm – this despite averaging the highest assist percentage of his career (24.3%) up until his latest injury. Lest we forget, Melo was actually the one who prodded D’Antoni to give then pine-ridden Lin his chance during the first Nets-Knicks showdown earlier this month. I just have a hard time believing that having Carmelo Anthony as your starting small forward is going to hurt your offense more than Bill Walker flopping all over the place.

Devin on the New Jersey Nets

1) Short of landing Dwight Howard, what’s it going to take to keep D-Will in New Jersey? If he bolts, how would you rebuild?

At this point I’m thinking more and more that the Nets are all-or-nothing — they either retain both Howard and Williams, or miss Howard and lose D-Will. But I’m increasingly becoming more okay with that, even as my eyes continue to burn watching Johan Petro and DeShawn Stevenson squander Nets leads and vomit jumpers. Losing both D-Will and Howard gives the Nets the chance to gut and start again, which means high lottery picks and fun young players. If D-Will bolts, I’m sure the Nets will throw money at Brook Lopez and other restricted free agents as well as grab someone decent with their assured high lottery pick.

2) Assuming the Nets don’t make the Playoffs — and in a weak East in a lockout-shortened season, with injuries abound, that’s certainly not even a given — how should they approach this year’s incredibly deep Draft?

That depends entirely on their pick. If it’s #1, I think the choice is obvious — though I’m not entirely sold on him, Anthony Davis is the can’t-miss prospect in this draft. After him, the waters get a little more murky. Chad Ford lists Andre Drummond as the Nets #2 option, though I doubt the Nets go for a center given their options (no matter what happens with Dwight). The Nets could desperately use some scoring on the wings, so don’t be surprised if Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Lamb suit up in Brooklyn next season. The Nets also have the rights to the Houston Rockets’ first-rounder (lottery-protected), and Billy King is known for making draft-night deals, so similarly don’t be surprised if the Nets end up with more lottery picks than they’d intended.

3) MarShon Brooks looks to be a lock for All Rookie First team. How impressed have you been, and where do you see his ceiling?

Swag. I use that nickname because MarShon likes it, and because whatever innate confidence the word intends to describe, it applies. MarShon carries himself like a pro and has since day one. He can create a decent shot in almost any situation and knocks down his open ones consistently. The early comparisons ranged from Kobe Bryant (wildly and stupidly optimistic) to Nick Young (just stupid). The answer lies somewhere in the middle of those two; there’s no chance he becomes the next Kobe just on pedigree alone — at the same age, Kobe was scoring 28 a game en route to his second championship ring — but he’s already surpassed Nick Young’s career-high in assists and is a far more willing passer than Young has ever been. He needs a lot of work defensively, but he has all the physical and mental tools to succeed for a long time in this league.

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coolnnet 7 pts

CLee haaaad to go. He seemed to never get over being traded from the Magic, and I truly believe his morose attitude infected the whole locker room, made worse, of course, by the near-record losing streak. Call me a crazy, call me a dreamer, but here's hoping that we somehow have D-Will, The Brookie Monster, and Superman on our roster. P.S. Just read that Morrow will be wearing Drazen Petrovic's #3 for the 3 Point Shooting contest. FANtastic...

SadNetsFan 5 pts

why does anyone want "fun young players" and cap space...

Farmar, Favors, Devin, Hump, Damion, Brook, Terrence, CLee, CDR, Yi, Brook, Sean Williams, Marcus Williams...

We drafted/traded for TONS of "fun young players" over the last couple of years...our talent evaluators just suck...

Favors could have been Greg Monroe

Terrence could have been Gerald Henderson, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson,

S.Williams could have been Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez,

M.Williams could have been Marc Gasol

Yi was a 6th pick, Devin was a 5th pick

CLee was going to be a "star brother. star, star, star."

And let's not even look at what we did with all that amazing cap space...unless you guys wanna talk about Outlaw

"fun young players" sometimes means you get lucky and get Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka/Sef/Perkins...

more often than not you are just a losing team hoping that someone develops into a star and that doesn't bolt for greener pastures. let's just hope we get Dwight, Deron stays, and watching Nets games becomes almost as fun as talking about the Nets

Our "consolation prize" is just a platitude...if Deron leaves and we don't land Dwight, it will be more of the same.

Devin Kharpertian 18 pts moderator

"Favors could have been Greg Monroe

Terrence could have been Gerald Henderson, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson,

S.Williams could have been Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez,

M.Williams could have been Marc Gasol"

Yes, those are all fun, effective young players the Nets could have had instead of their mostly boring young players that you first listed.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Devin Kharpertian That's what I'm saying. They COULD have been all fun, effective players, but we didn't draft those guys. Saying cap space + and a crappy team will lead to fun, effective players isn't true. The draft is a crapshoot, even for grabbing a starter when you are picking in the top 10. I don't see it as a good consolation prize to have the opportunity to try again, and nothing in the Nets' history of drafting or trading for young players points in the direction that we will pick the "fun, effective young players."

Devin Kharpertian 18 pts moderator

SadNetsFan Not sure why Rod Thorn & Kiki Vandeweghe -- who were decent evaluators, for the most part -- missing on diamonds in the past decade has any relevance on Billy King, who's got a history of finding quality players in the draft (Iguodala, Thad Young, Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, and most recently some dude named MarShon Brooks).

Understand your frustration and your username, but realistic optimism tastes better than instinctual pessimism.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Devin Kharpertian If we want to look at BKing's history, we have a lot of really bad signings with that cap space coming our way.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Devin Kharpertian Going into the 2010 draft the Nets had CLee (1st round "star"), Brook Lopez (lottery), Terrence Williams (lottery), Yi (lottery) Hump (1st round) Devin (lottery) and CDR...then we were going to get John Wall or at least Evan Turner, either trade Devin for something better or keep Devin and build around what we have by adding in a couple free agents...

Nope. Fun young players sounds nice, it isn't. We lived that already.

Devin Kharpertian 18 pts moderator

SadNetsFan Three points, then I've got to start working:

1) Courtney Lee was the only person who thought Courtney Lee was a star. Ditto for CDR.

2) Not sure why the Nets missing out on the #1 or #2 pick in the 2010 draft is relevant.

3) The Nets DID trade Devin for someone better.

I'm all for the "grab superstars by the handful" mantra, but you either do that, or you blow it up and try to hit on youth. Otherwise you're stuck in dreaded basketball purgatory. And I'd rather 20-62 with a shot at #1 then 40-42 and getting your ass kicked by Miami for 5 straight years.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Devin Kharpertian I understand, and I feel the same way.

-The CLee is a star was a Shaq reference BTW.

-Missing out on the #1.#2 picks just shows that even having the worst record doesn't guarantee you will get the blue chip #1 guy

I would take being the Nets any day over being the Hawks, but after years of this it does get tiring hearing that next year will be our year. At a certain point I think it would be cool to watch a basketball game hoping your team will win, rather than kinda hoping they will win but knowing if they lose they have a better chance at the lottery.

Maxmax 5 pts

SadNetsFan Yeah, but the nets have had one top 9 pick in the last eleven years. Like the Knicks, they have traded away all their young guys. Look at the Bulls as a counterexample: They were terrible for ten years and continued to keep their picks and trade for picks. At first, this didn't work out so great. Jay Wiliams, Elton Brand, Chandler, Curry, Crawford, Ben Gordon were all decent but only good enough to get them to like 45 wins. They remained focused on the lottery and let all these players go. When possible, they got picks back, but they never overpaid middling talent. Eventually, they started hitting in the lottery, drafting Deng, Noah (courtesy of the Knicks), and then the crowning piece, Rose.

You have two choices in the NBA: hope and pray a top ten player will come as a free agent, or just let your team suck and continue to play the lottery.

tae 8 pts

Maxmax I'm not sure how hitting the 1.8 chance of hitting the #1 pick is exactly a method to follow. If the Nets hit the billion better chance of hitting John Wall, the Nets would be in a better future right now.

Maxmax 5 pts

tae Okay, so what's the alternative? Let's look at the best teams in the NBA:

Chicago Bulls: Entire core via draft

OKC Thunder: Entire core via draft

Miami Heat: Found a superstar via draft (Wade) who recruited other superstars. This, partnered with the fact that Miami had easily traded young players (who they got via the draft), allowed the big three to form.

San Antonio Spurs: Entire core through draft

LAL: Kobe via draft, swindled Memphis for Gasol.

LAC: Griffin, Jordan via draft, Paul via trade of strong young player who they drafted (Eric Gordon).

Indiana: Entire core via draft

Dallas: Dirk via draft

Portland: Aldridge and Batum via draft, some decent players as free agents.

Memphis: Gay, Conley via draft; Marc Gasol as young and unproven talent (he had 0 NBA games before coming to Memphis). Randolph via free agency.

Boston is really the only good exception here, and even they drafted both Pierce and Rondo.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Maxmax but...10 years...I understand that you "want" one of two things because the goal is to win the championship, but wouldn't it be kinda cool, maybe just for a season, to be as good as Memphis, Portland, Indiana, Philadelphia, Denver, Houston...knowing we have a chance to win every game? And not just a "chance" but a real chance? Isn't anyone sick of the "boom or bust" when it has been bust over and over and over again?

Maxmax 5 pts

SadNetsFan First off, it hasn't been that long since the nets were good. Six years? Second of all, the strategy you're talking about -- cashing young assets immediately just to stay competitive -- is the one the Knicks followed all the way up until they got Donnie Walsh as GM. It didn't work out so well for them.

SadNetsFan 5 pts

Maxmax I was referring to what you said about Chicago when I said "10 years"...sorry if I didn't make that clear.

Also, I don't think the Nets should actually cash their assets to stay competitive. I just am kind of sick of waiting around for them to hit the lottery, and I don't think it's such a great consolation prize to losing DWill and Howard that they will have cap space and young players.

I know it is the only realistic and it is the correct alternative. I just think it sucks.

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