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Trading For A Power Forward

With all of the starting caliber power forwards free agents pretty much locked up, the only way the Nets can get a guy to play in front of Derrick Favors for a few years so he can develop is through a trade.  As Mark told us over the weekend, Terrence Williams might be the guy who gets sacrificed to make this happen.

People who read this site on a daily basis know how much I like Terrence Williams, but I do think if a deal gets made he is the one most likely to be dealt.  In my opinion, Terrence Williams is valued higher by other teams than by the Nets.  This is because Avery Johnson loves guys who can play both ends of the court, and right now Terrence Williams is weak on the defensive end.  So who can the Nets bring in by dealing Terrence Williams?  Well, I decided to use Trade Machine to take a look:

Terrence Williams for Carl Landry

Carl Landry is the exact type of Power Forward the Nets are looking for.  He is only under contract for another two years, and he is a guy who wants to bang on the inside…the Nets need that.  As for the Kings, they don’t have a standout Shooting Guard on their roster, and T-Will can be that.

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Nets on the Net: New Players, More Witticisms From Prokhorov

Jordan Farmar on why he picked the Nets over the Lakers: “We talked about it, and it wasn’t really how I wanted to spend my whole career, being a backup in a triangle (offense),” the Nets’ new backup point guard explained yesterday.

Al Iannazzone continues to speculate the Nets options for PF. They include Andrei Kirilenko, Troy Murphy, Kenyon Martin, Brandon Bass and Paul Millsap.

Daily News has part two of their interview with Mikhail Prokhorov. There’s more amusing stuff in there, including this nugget:

Q: Can you play (PF)?

A: Power forward? I’m too old for this. And I don’t like the salary of the players. I can make more in business.

Nets on the Net: Nets Talk to GM Candidates, Waiting, Waiting on FAs

For a change of pace, let’s start with the vacant GM spot and some interesting candidates the Nets have been speaking with. Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski says the Nets have spoken to Hornets GM Jeff Bower about their opening. With the Hornets ownership situation in flux, Bower could look to bolt NOLA. Al Iannazzone is reporting that the Nets also spoke to Pistons GM Joe Dumars, in addition to Bower.

With Bower one of the candidates, Dave D’Alessandro brings up some potential controversy with him and new coach Avery Johnson. Johnson felt a bit slandered when there were reports out of NOLA that Johnson was “power hungry” and “money hungry” in his interview with Bower – reports that Johnson believes the organization spread. Considering the bass-ackwards nature of what’s going with the Nets right now – usually the GM is in place before the head coach is, this could get interesting, and messy, quickly.

As for the LeBron James saga, all reports are pointing to a decision on Thursday, when a salary cap is set for the season and players can officially sign with new teams. Ianazzone, quoting league sources puts the Nets in the “final three” with the Cavs and Bulls. The Knicks, in all of their infinite wisdom, apparently scheduled a second meeting this past weekend with LeBron’s folks, though it doesn’t appear that James, or anyone significant from the Knicks side attended. I guess they just wanted to give commenters over at TheKnicksBlog something to get excited about… which if you’re in the mood for some crazy talk, is a recommended place to cruise these days. Meanwhile, the Nets are still in contact with David Lee, according to Fred Kerber.

Picking First In the Second

As the New Jersey Nets look to rebuild themselves from their disastrous 12-win season, a lot of to-do has been made about the fact that in addition to their lottery pick, the Nets also have a second first rounder, and the first pick in the second round, which some consider has the potential to be “as good as a first rounder.”

Or is it?

Obviously, draft picks are a good thing for a rebuilding team, and almost every single draft has a few gems or solid rotations players in the second round – but history has shown that there’s generally something off about the player picked with the first pick in the second round.  Since the draft lottery era, the pick has only yielded one player who’s appeared in an all-star game, while producing far more players who have only played in one or two NBA seasons. In many cases, the pick has yielded players who have never played a single NBA minute. So when looking at mock drafts and imagining how that 31st pick might look in the rotation next season, keep your expectations low Nets fans.

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Nets Lottery Retrospective (Part I)

Though many Nets fans are probably disappointed that the team didn’t draw the first or second pick in this summer’s draft – thereby hypothetically losing out on the John Wall/Evan Turner sweepstakes – nabbing the third pick is still an organizational rarity in that the team has only selected in the top three on three different occasions since the Draft Lottery system began in 1985.

With that said, as is the case with most NBA teams, the Nets have had a mixed bag of results with their draft lottery picks. To demonstrate just how random the lottery can be, and how scouting reports can differ drastically from actual results, I thought I would review how the Nets have done at each respective spot in the lottery rounds. So rather than obsessing about mid-round busts like Antoine Wright or Rex Walters,  I thought it would be better to rehash how the Nets have fared with picks that should be hypothetically be producing the best players. Here’s part I, and next week I’ll look at the remaining lottery picks.

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Is This The Real Kris Humphries?

When the Nets traded for Kris Humphries in exchange for Eduardo Najera, I was pretty excited.  Not only were the Nets able to get rid of Najera (who looked like he was running with a torn hamstring), but they brought in a young guy who showed flashes.  Early on, it looked like the Nets got away with highway robbery as Humphries brought his defensive energy and that was a new attitude for this team.  He was also scoring, in his first 9 games as a Net, Humphries reached double-digits 4 times (including two 20 point games), and got 9 two other times.  Sure he was taking some tough jumpers, but he made them so it was ok.  He’d settle down when he wasn’t as hot (shot 45.1% in January).

I was really high on Humphries, I was starting to think that the only reason he didn’t produce in his previous spots was just because he played behind really good players (Bosh in Toronto, Boozer in Utah, and Dirk in Dallas).  However, Humphries has hit a rough patch over the past two months.  He is still bringing the defensive intensity, there is no question about that.  The offensive end has been a completely different story though.  Remember those tough shots Humphries was making early on?  Well, he’s still taking them, but not making them at the rate he was (45.1% in January – 39.4% since – keep in mind his minutes has bascially been the same during his stay here), and when he makes the catch on the high post, you can pretty much assume he is going up with it.  No matter how well defended he is.

The question Nets fans and the Nets front office has to ask now is whether or not this is the real Kris Humphries or not, or was the real Kris Humphries the one we saw in January.  Personally, I think the Humphries we have seen the past two months is the “true Kris Humphries.”  The reason is Idon’t think he can maintain the shooting percentage to be an effective scorer in this league.  He takes too many bad shots, and takes the offense out of his flow too much.  He hasn’t only done this in New Jersey, this has been his knock every stop he has been at.

That’s not saying he isn’t a serviceable player, because I think he is one, but what I am concerned about is whether there is a spot for him on this team.  Better yet, what is his role?  One of the Nets’ biggest needs is power forward.  I think Yi has proven he can’t handle the starting responsibilities, so the Nets will be bringing a starting power forward (that is pretty much assumed), but who is going to be the backup?  In my opinion, Kris Humphries is the more valuable backup if you bring in an offensive minded PF to start, but are the Nets really going to stick Yi on the bench for good (Orlando showed that having 3 PFs on your roster doesn’t work – Brandon Bass hasn’t played much all year)?  I guess what I am getting to is don’t expect to see much of Kris Humphries next year unless Yi goes down with an injury.  Now, some of you guys may have already assumed that, but I have to admit, I got a little excited seeing a guy play with that type of intensity on the defensive end and being productive on the offensive end.

Bloggers Talk: Orlando Magic

Andrew Melnick from the Magic blog, Howard the Dunk is back with NAS again to discuss his team headed into the season’s final six weeks (and likely more for Orlando). I also answered some questions for him at his site, so be nice and check it out for all of our sakes.

NAS:  Vince Carter has had an up and down season and is averaging a career low in ppg. Is there any buyer’s remorse in Orlando?

After a disastrous month of January, there was. Carter was not expected to post the same kind of numbers he has throughout his career, but he doesn‘t need to. In the offseason, he joined a team featuring three All-Stars (Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson), so his attempts, minutes and subsequently his points per game were going to drop. Carter’s struggles were often discussed heading into the new year but in January, Magic fans began to turn against him. Carter averaged just 8.7 points per game on 22.4% shooting in the month and even watched a few close fourth quarters from the bench as J.J. Redick closed out games.  In the month of February, things began to change. Carter finally found his place on the team. After proclaiming that he would turn it around in February, he has done a much better job of driving the ball into the paint and getting his teammates involved. Plus, his shot is finally falling. Carter averaged 18.6 points per game on 51.5% shooting, highlighted by Carter‘s 48-point performance on February 8th against New Orleans. He is not only taking less shots but he’s taking much better shots.

Carter is still going to be called upon to make plays down the stretch in games and as of late, he’s done a good job of doing that. If Carter keeps getting into the paint and continues to make good decisions with the ball, that remorse should disappear.

NAS:  Judging from his per 40 minute numbers, it looks like Ryan Anderson is a player, but he’s also been racking up some DNP-CDs it appears. Is it just a result of the numbers game in Orlando, or are the other reasons he’s not getting PT?

It’s a mix of both. Anderson has struggled at times defensively and that has prompted Stan Van Gundy to turn to Brandon Bass in certain situations to provide a spark on that end, which is the cause for Anderson‘s recent string of DNPs. Anderson was a starter early in the season because of the suspension of Rashard Lewis, but now Lewis is playing heavy minutes. In fact, Van Gundy recently said that Lewis was going to play even more. Without consistent playing time, Anderson’s shot hasn’t been falling like it was earlier this season.

Remember also that Anderson is also a very young player – he’s 21, is in his second year of the league and is trying to find a role on a team who has their sites set on a championship.

Anderson is a better player than I originally thought. His rebounding (Anderson has a rebounding rate of 12.3%) and ability to get to the basket (34% of his shots have been close, dunks or tips) are better than most thought.

Anderson’s youth, Bass’ athleticism and Rashard Lewis’ extended minutes are the reasons that Anderson’s minutes have been limited.

NAS: Besides Cleveland, do you see any other legitimate threats to the Magic in the Eastern Conference as we head into the playoffs? Any first round match-ups that could pose a problem?

It’s too early to completely rule out the Boston Celtics. It does however, seem like the Magic are better equipped to deal with them this season. The Magic have used their depth and at times they have matched Boston’s size (playing Howard alongside Marcin Gortat) to wear Boston down, which has resulted in two come-from-behind Magic victories in their last two games against the Celtics.

Sure, the Celtics are old, Rasheed Wallace has been a terrible signing and KG’s knees look like they can fold at any time, but if Boston enters the playoffs with their starting five of Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Paul Piece, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo intact, they are still a dangerous team.

Atlanta is another team that is much improved and you can’t rule them out, but Orlando has dominated the Hawks this season, blowing them out in all three meetings so far. The Hawks have no answer for Dwight Howard and the Magic have good athletes and great depth to match the Hawks in that department.

From talking to the players, it is obvious that the Magic would prefer not to have to deal with Dwyane Wade in the postseason. John Salmons has also been a great addition for the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been playing very well lately. The Magic have played more consistent basketball lately and if they do that in the first round, they shouldn’t have anything to worry about, but if they don’t they will be in for a fight. Remember, the Philadelphia 76ers took the Magic to six games last year (even though it did take two buzzer-beaters).

Should The Nets Send Terrence Williams Down To The D-League?

In Dave D’s latest article, he briefly glosses over something that I find really interesting:

For starters, we’d consider sending Terrence Williams to Springfield for a few weeks. He’s not getting much out of being here, and everyone can see that. He doesn’t play much anymore — 8.4 mpg this month, with no discernible contribution across the board — and maybe a short vacation convinces him to start playing a team game again, which he hasn’t shown much interest in doing lately.

The D-League is there for a reason. And as long as there’s roster space for a call-up who will bust his tail for a chance to play a few weeks in the NBA, you might as well use it.

At the beginning of the year, I would have scoffed at this.  Not only because I was (still am) one of his biggest supporters, but also because I saw him playing a very big role on the team at this point in the year.  Instead Terrence Williams has logged just 78 minutes in 9 games this month.  Let’s look at the pros and cons of sending Terrence down:

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Game 9 Preview Vs. Orlando Magic

Just something quick on Wednesday’s game.  I thought it was funny how the game ended basically the same way as the first Sixers game ended.  Go for the win, misexecute (just made that word up), miss a two to tie the game.  Foul the Sixers, have them miss one of two, and not even get a game winning attempt up.  The Nets are a young team, but they need to learn from their mistakes the first time, not repeat them over and over.  Twice now, the Nets haven’t been able to even get an attempt at a basket in the final seconds.  For once though, this one isn’t on Lawrence Frank, he is really scraping from the bottom of the barrel, and they players are just failing to execute right now.  I just wish we had Devin to attempt some of these buzzer beaters though.

Alright, now lets turn our attention to tonight’s game.   It’s a shame that Courtney Lee doesn’t get to play against his former team in Orlando, but Rafer Alston does.  I know the PER says otherwise, but in my opinion Rafer has done a solid job playing point, and we aren’t losing games because of him (well, maybe besides Wed. night).  Tonight though, tonight could be a different story, he could go all shot-happy on us tonight, should be interesting.  Oh and CDR is back in uniform tonight, though probably not starting.  Late word is that Brandon Bass isn’t active tonight (flu), in addition to Ryan Anderson (ankle) and Rashard Lewis (suspension).  It is going to be interesting to see who plays tonight at the 4 for them.

Nets Projected Starting Lineup

  1. PG – Rafer Alston
  2. SG – Trenton Hassell
  3. SF – Bobby Simmons
  4. PF – Eduardo Najera
  5. C – Brook Lopez

Magic Projected Starting Lineup

  1. PG – Jameer Nelson
  2. SG – Vince Carter
  3. SF - Mickael Pietrus
  4. PF – Matt Barnes
  5. C – Dwight Howard

Their Mismatches

Vince Carter vs. Trenton Hassell - Vince Carter was on his way to a huge game before he got hurt in New Jersey.  You know he is going to want to do that again.  While Trenton Hassell was a defensive stopper for a long-time in the league, age is starting to catch up with him though.  He hasn’t been the best defensively so far this season, but maybe that has to do with the crazy minutes he is logging.

Our Mismatches

Our 4s vs. Matt Barnes – If Matt Barnes does in fact start tonight, we will be in the rare position of our 4s having the advantage.  Both Najera and Boone are bigger than Barnes, and they both look to have the advantage on paper against them.  Let’s see if they can use it.

Matchup Of The Night

Brook Lopez vs. Dwight Howard - Dwight Howard got the best of Brook last time, pushing him way out of the block and not letting him get any position.  Brook has been playing well as of late though.  If Brook wants to be mentioned among the NBA’s best big-men, he needs to play well against the best.  Right now, Dwight Howard is the best.

Keys To Victory

Defend The Three – This one is easy.  The Magic are the best three point team in the league, and we are one of the worst defending the three.  Hopefully we can get up for the challenge and close out hard on their shooters.

Get Dwight In Foul Trouble – Dwight Howard is so important for what the Magic do both offensively and defensively.  On the offensive end, you always got to know where he is, and that allows the other Magic players to get open looks.  On the defensive end, Howard erases a lot of mistakes.  If he isn’t on the court, we got a chance.

Box Out - I mentioned it earlier, but three point shots usually come of the rim funny and lend themselves to long bounces.  If the Nets don’t box out, they will give this dangerous 3 point shooting team more shots at the basket.

Prediction

Current Prediction Record: 4-4

Man, my gut was almost right on Wed.  You would think with all of the stuff I feed it, it would treat me right.  Anyway, I don’t need my gut to tell me about this won.  Magic win.

Bloggers Talks: Orlando Magic

An added treat. Yes, I know tonight is a road game, but we love the Orlando Magic match-up so much, we decided to do another Blogger’s Talk. We’re back with Andrew Melnick from the Magic blog, Howard the Dunk.

NAS: The Magic are off to a solid start despite some early injury woes. What does that say about their depth?

Melnick: It says that the Magic have excellent depth and without, they would be in some trouble. We knew the Magic would have to show off their depth early with the suspension of Rashard Lewis for 10 games, but they have had to play games without Vince Carter (ankle), Ryan Anderson (ankle), Mickael Pietrus (flu-like symptoms) and Anthony Johnson (personal reasons). The entire Magic team and especially Dwight Howard, have had a lot of problems staying out of foul trouble. To be 6-2 after all of that, it shows that the Magic have an incredibly deep team.

NAS: What are your impressions of Jason Williams off the bench at the point so far?

Melnick: Jason Williams has been better than I thought. He’s been very good as the backup to Jameer Nelson. He’s playing a little under 20 minutes per game and has been very effective. He has been solid from the outside shooting the 3-pointer (38%) and has an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio (4.6 to 1). Magic Head Coach Stan Van Gundy likes the way that Williams plays in a close game but he thinks that he gets too fancy in a less-than-tight game.

Williams has led some key runs and has been able to help Orlando extend leads while running with the second unit. He hasn’t shown many signs of rust, which is pretty surprising considering that he did not play in the NBA last season. Overall, I am very happy with Williams’ play so far.

NAS: There’s been a lot of talk about the Magic struggling on the defensive end so far. Any insight as to what’s the issues there?

Melnick: Well, first and foremost, the Magic have not been healthy. They’ve been missing Rashard Lewis, who is an underrated defender at the Power Forward position. Dwight Howard has not been able to defend the paint quite the way he likes because he has not been able to avoid foul trouble.

Magic Head Coach Stan Van Gundy blames their suspect defense on a lack of intensity, effort and intelligence. Van Gundy went so far as to call the Magic the worst defensive team in the league after Sunday night’s blowout loss in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.

At times the Magic play very good defense. In fact, on Tuesday night the Bobcats exploded in the third quarter and scored 30 points to cut what once was a 15-point Magic lead to six. Orlando then held the Bobcats to just 10 points in the game’s final quarter.

Van Gundy pointed out that Celtics finish games and play good defense for 48 minutes – they keep their intensity level up throughout the entire game. The Magic simply do not have enough effort on defense right now. Dwight Howard has been in foul trouble and has grown frustrated too quickly – he is not the same player the won Defensive Player of the Year last season right now. He is not rebounding and blocking shots like he should and at times looks apprehensive on the defensive end. Jameer Nelson has now let an opposing Point Guard have their way with him three games in row (Westbrook, Felton, Mo Williams). These are things that did not happen last season. Luckily, these are all correctable problems.

NAS: How is the return of Rashard Lewis going to affect Orlando’s rotation? How do you think it should affect the rotation?

Melnick: Rashard Lewis will be the starting Power Forward and I think that is absolutely the right move. He was an All-Star at the position; he creates matchup problems and I said earlier, is an underrated defender.

The starting lineup should consist of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and either Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus. Right now it looks like Barnes has the edge and I like that move – Pietrus is better suited to come off of the bench. He provides instant scoring and is the perfect player to spark Orlando’s second unit.

Obviously, this is going to mean both Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass will have reduced roles. Bass has started three games during Anderson’s absence after Anderson started the first six games of the season. Ryan Anderson can present several of the same matchup problems that Lewis creates because of his ability to shoot the 3-pointer. Bass is more of an inside player although he is an excellent shooter from the baseline.

Orlando’s second unit would be Jason Williams, J.J. Redick, Marcin Gortat, Pietrus (or Barnes) and either Bass or Anderson. I’m assuming Van Gundy will play whichever player present the biggest matchup problem for the opponent on that particular night. If that is the case, I would be very happy about it. I think that is exactly how the Magic should handle their rotation once Rashard Lewis returns.