The Nets Haven’t Been The Worst Since The All-Star Break
Mar 12, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Opinion
I don’t know how many of you are familiar with Wayne Winston, but the man is one of the best sports analytics people in the business. In fact until recently he was doing statistical analysis for the Dallas Mavericks. Since he stopped doing his thing for the Mavericks, Winston published a book called Mathletics (where he breaks down advanced statistics for a few different sports) and he now runs a blog where he does his thing. Recently, over at WayneWinston.com Winston posted his “Post All-Star Rankings.” It was interesting to see that according to Winston, the Nets haven’t been the worst team in the NBA since the break. Hell, they weren’t even second worst. The Nets ranked 23rd in Winston’s rankings, with the Knicks ranking last (awesome). Let’s allow Winston to explain his rankings:
In the three weeks since the all star break here is a summary of how well each NBA team has played. For example, the Magic have played 10.65 points better than average. The Magic have played 2.38 points better than average on offense and 8.26 points better than average on defense. Note the Nets have really improved and the Knicks are now the league’s worst team. Kudos to the unsung Bucks, who have played great. These numbers are adjusted for strength of schedule. Makes you think that a Lakers-Cavs final series is not inevitable!
Now, let’s look at the Nets specifically. The Nets have an overall ranking of -4.12119, meaning they play about 4 points worse than their opponents. Breaking it down to both sides of the ball, the Nets have been playing -4.29861 on the offensive end, but on the flip side, the Nets have been better than their opponents on defense. Now it hasn’t been by much (only 0.17742 better), but with the way the Nets played defense, any kind of better is good news.
If you have been watching Nets games, you know the Nets have been playing better since the break. With Brook Lopez continuing to dominate (up until the last two games where he faced real tough defenders), Courtney Lee finally breaking out of his funk, Terrence Williams starting to get it, and Devin Harris returning to last year’s all-star form. I have to echo Mark’s sentiments from yesterday:
So you tell me: can the worst team in basketball honestly be expected to accomplish all this in a given night? After being legitimately angry with this team and organization for the better part of the last four months, I can honestly say I now sympathize with these guys. Between the young talent of guys like Lopez, Harris, Williams and Lee, and some veteran good-guys like Keyon Dooling, Hayes and Hassell, these Nets need to find a way to get out of this discussion as being among the worst ever, because they just don’t belong there.
This team is just not the worst team in NBA history. They don’t do things that bad teams do (most of the time), and they go out and compete. Hopefully they can come away with 3 more wins.
Looking At Courtney Lee’s Numbers Again
Feb 25, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has been a tough player to evaluate. He has really been feast or famine, either going for 20+ points or less than 10, and nothing really in between. Also, since Lee was the big piece (and maybe the only piece that finishes the season as a Net) acquired in the Vince Carter trade we like to keep an eye on how he has been playing. We did one of these updates after game #17, and another after game #38. With a little lull in the schedule, I thought now would be a good time to look at Courtney’s numbers again.
All data from Hoopdata.com
Offensive Game
Usage & Turnovers
Courtney Lee’s usage dropped a touch yet again, going from 17.96 to 17.81. Now, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, since the big talking point going into the season was as Courtney’s usage increased, his numbers would drop. It is good to see the Nets keeping his usage as a manageable rate, because my fear was (and still is to a point) that Courtney’s usage would increase to over 20, making him inefficient. Lee’s Turnover Rate continues to rise (it is now sitting at 7.75), but it is still well below league average, so that means he is still doing a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball.
Courtney’s Shot
Courtney Lee’s shooting percentage is returning to the level he is shooting last year (he is actually shooting better this year from 10-23 feet), except for two key locations, the three point line and inside 10 feet (not at the rim). I personally think that this is due to the fact that he is being defended differently here in New Jersey than he was in Orlando last year. Last year, as the 5th or 6th option on that Magic team, Lee didn’t have defenses focus on him, this allowed him to get off a lot of open threes (we have discussed this in the past), but he was also able to get a lot of shots in the lane because teams would rather let Lee shoot than double off of Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard, or Hedo Turkaglu. This year, Courtney has settled into the third option, and with that he isn’t getting nearly as many open threes or runners in the lane.
These two locations are the main reason for his inconsistency. If Courtney Lee is hitting his three pointers and runners, he is going to have a big game. If not, he is going to have a game where he really struggles.
Defense
What has really impressed me about Courtney Lee is that no matter whether is his having a good game or an off-night, he brings it on the defensive end. In my opinion, Courtney Lee is one of the better defenders in the NBA, and the numbers back him up. Lee gets more rebounds this year, he gets more steals, blocks more shots, and takes more charges.
The Nets And Four Factors
Feb 24, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Analysis, Four Factors
The Nets are bad, we know this, but why are they so bad? There are plenty of reasons, but I think the one of the best ways of figuring out what is going wrong with a team is to look at the four factors. Now, we have looked at four factors a couple times before, but this time we are going to look at the Nets’ four factors in wins and in losses to see if there is anything different that they are doing when they win. If there is, is it something that can carry over to the remaining games? Let’s take a look at the chart:
The Two Key Factors
Looking at the graph above, you can see the two key factors for the Nets. They are eFG% and Turnover Rate. Now eFG% makes sense. If the Nets shoot better, naturally they are going to have a better chance to win. So why do the Nets hit more shots in these 5 games? Well, just a few guesses here, but they probably get Brook Lopez a lot of touches down low, and in addition, when he passes out of the double team his teammates are making shots.
The other factor is Turnover Rate. It makes sense. If the Nets keep their turnovers down while they are shooting good, that means there are more possessions available for the Nets to take shots. That means more points and a better chance of winning. Also, the low Turnover Rater number means that the Nets offense must have been working well in these wins.
A Surprise
I actually thought that the Nets’ Free Throw Rate in wins was going to be a lot higher than their Free Throw Rate in losses, but in reality this is the opposite. The Nets get to the line at an above-average rate in losses, but they go to the line at a below average rate in wins. I think this can be explained because in losses, the Nets don’t shoot well (see eFG%), so for them to even have a chance at scoring, they need to attack the basket more. When they attack the basket more, they are going to get fouled more.
Revisiting Kiki’s Style Of Play
Feb 5, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Kiki Vandeweghe
In early December, exactly 8 games into Kiki’s tenure as head coach, we looked at his team’s playing style. A style that was completely different to what Lawrence Frank was doing. If you don’t feel like going back through the post, here is the spreadsheet:
Switching The Lineup Around
Jan 26, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Coaching, Jarvis Hayes, Kris Humphries, Roster, Yi
Since the return of Yi, the Nets have had a stable starting lineup (with the exception of the last game – Devin’s wrist injury), but let’s face it. The lineup we have on the court isn’t working right now, and I think that a switch in the starting lineup is well overdue. In my opinion, there are two players you can consider moving to the bench and have them be the new sixth man. Those two players are Yi and Chris Douglas-Roberts. This is because these are the two guys that are “struggling” the most right now. So how are we going to analyze this? Well, in the book Mathletics (a book I highly recommend), Wayne Winston dedicates an entire chapter to analyzing lineups, and we are going to use some of the techniques he uses to see which lineup the Nets should start with.
Nets on the Net: 1/25/10 Edition
Jan 25, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Al Iannazzone, Dave D'Alessandro, Nets on the Net
Dave D’Alessandro always has a way of cutting through it all and asking the obvious but important questions: Which raises the question: If they spent nearly four hours practicing defense on Tuesday and another 90 minutes reviewing their principles on Thursday, what was the emphasis exactly?
Al Iannazzone talks about how the Nets are actually getting worse: But here’s looking at a small sample of games before we go big picture. Over the four-game trip, the Nets allowed the opposition to shoot 55.4 percent and average 112.8 points per game. They were beaten by an average of 25 points, prompting one of most honest answers a player ever uttered.
The always super Hardowood Paroxysm looks at PER and usage rate midway through the season for every team – including the Nets, who contrary to popular belief, are still part of the NBA.
Courtney Lee Revisited
Jan 14, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Courtney Lee
A couple months back, we looked at Courtney Lee’s game by the numbers. It was 17 games in, and what I determined from the numbers then, is that if Lee could improve his shot he would turn into a solid player. Has that happened? Well, now that we are 38 games in, I thought it would be nice to look at the numbers again.
Once again, all numbers are from HoopData.com.
Offensive Game
Courtney’s Usage Rate has actually dropped from game #17, and it is now sitting at 17.96. Since game #17, Courtney Lee has turned the ball over a little more (Turnover Rate = 6.90% earlier in the year to 7.32% right now). This is still a very good number as it is well below the league average (11.52%). Courtney’s Assist Rate continues to rise with the increase in usage rate. It has gone up from 13.04 in the beginning of the year to 13.56 now. This is still slightly below average though. The last number we looked at earlier in the year was Free Throw Rate. Courtney’s Free Throw Rate after game #17 was.39. Lee’s Free Throw Rate right now is .25. The numbers make it look like he is settling for more jumpers instead of attacking the basket like he did in the beginning of the year.
Defensive Game
Lee’s steals per game has dropped slightly from 1.7 to 1.6 (still well above average = .7), his blocks are at the same number as they were at game #17.
Has Lee’s Shooting Improved?
Lee’s baskets are starting to get assisted on at a slightly higher level. Lee has gone from having his baskets assisted on 53.3% of the time to 54.2%. This means that he is forced to get his own shot slightly less, which means easier shots should be coming around. Has that made him a better shooter? At the rim, Lee’s % is slightly up, going from around 50% to 57.7%. 17 games in Courtney Lee was terrible inside 10 feet. He was shooting it around 10% in fact. Now, he has nearly doubled it, and he is shooting 20% inside 10 feet. It isn’t as good as last year (30%), but it is improving. From 10-15 feet, he has dropped from around 45% to 42.9%. The last number I want to look at is his 3 point shooting percentage. It has improved since last time we looked at it (around 30% before 42% now), but it is still well below the 60% he was shooting in Orlando. The reason? In Orlando he was getting a lot of open looks, looks that allowed him to jump straight up and straight down (remember how important that is). In New Jersey, shots are tougher, meaning he will miss more.
The trend though is his shooting is starting to rise to levels around last year’s percentage (save for the 3 point percentage). His PER has hovered right around where it was in the begining of the year. It was 12.01 after game 17 and it is now 11.98. I think the slight decrease in PER is due to the rise in turnovers.
Yi Jianlian & Free Throw Rate
Jan 13, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Clifford Robinson, Del Harris, Kiki, NAS At Practice, Yi
I wrote something on this a little while back for the Daily Dime, but that was only three games in, so wanted to revisit it today (10 games since his return). Free Throw Rate measures how many foul shot attempts a player gets compared to the number of shots he takes. His Free Throw Rate at the time of my Daily Dime piece was .44, today it sits at .46. This is good for 34th in the league and is a tremendous upgrade from his Free Throw Rate of last year (.25).
So why is Free Throw Rate so important that I am talking about this again? Well getting to the line is important when you are looking for consistency in a player. In past years, Yi would put together a nice string of games, but then drop off, and it all had to do with his shooting. He was a feast or famine player when it came to his jumper and if his shot wasn’t going down, he wasn’t being a productive player.
Getting to the foul line resolves this issue. I mean, look at Yi’s last game against San Antonio. He was just 4-17 from the field in San Antonio, but he was able to score 16 points because he got himself to the line 10 times (hitting 8 of them). Yi is a good enough foul shooter that when he gets to the line he is basically getting free points. Not only does that help you in terms of production, but getting to the foul line also helps shooters get out of funks. If you are in a shooting skid, and go to the foul line, that is where you work the kinks out. You get 10 seconds and of no defense to take a shoot, get your stroke down, and most importantly you get to see the shot go in. Yi was in a big time shooting funk last year, and in my opinion, he didn’t get to the line often enough last year to break out of it. This year is a totally different story. He has attempted 74 foul shots so far this year in 14 games compared to the 123 he took all of last year.
So where did this come from, a lot of people (including myself) has speculated Yi’s new toughness was a result of his injuries this year, and when he came back, he was just a hungrier player. This may be true, but what nobody really has talked about was Kiki and Del’s effect on Yi’s attacking ways. It’s impossible to teach toughness though right? That’s what I thought too, but then I saw Yi working with Kiki, Del Harris, and Clifford Robinson yesterday:
Free Throw Rate measures how many foul shot attempts a player gets compared to the number of shots he takes.
Say what you will of Kiki’s coaching style, but it is obvious that Kiki knows that being able to take shots and still get his shot off is a key to Yi’s success. He has been stressing it to him all year, and it is obviously working. Another fun stat, Yi’s And 1 rate (And 1s/Field Goals Attempted) is up from 1.6 last year to 2.5 this year.
Missed Lay-Ups Are Really Hurting The Nets
Dec 30, 2009 Advanced Statistics, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Devin Harris, Josh Boone, Rafer Alston, Videos
According to HoopData.com, the Nets attempt 30.3 lay-ups per game, a number that ranks as 4th most in the NBA. You look at just that number and you think, wow, that is pretty good, and it is. However, when you couple that with the fact that the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league at converting these lay-ups, you are just left shaking your head at all of the missed opportunities.
The Nets are second worst (tied) team in the NBA when it comes to making lay-ups. Their field goal percentage on lay-ups, as tracked by Hoopdata, is 55.4%. The league average is 60.4 percent. Looking at the Nets’ number attempts again, if they would be at just the league average, they would be instantly 3 points better (I took their attempts and determined how many they would make at the league average – it was about 17.3 – 1.5 more – or 3 points more). We have talked about how the Nets aren’t really playing good defense anymore and how they just try to outscore teams. If they are going to do that successfully, they can’t leave points on the table, especially when they are coming from lay-ups.
When looking at the individual numbers, you start to see why the team has such a low FG% at the rim. The Nets only have 4 players on their roster shooting lay-ups at a percentage over the league average. Two of them are Eduardo Najera and Sean Williams, so really the Nets only have two regulars shooting lay-ups better than league average (Yi and Trenton Hassell).
I was shocked to see Brook Lopez (58%) and Terrence Williams (48%) with such low percentages, but I am willing to dismiss both of these because one, Brook Lopez has been doing this while facing double/triple teams early in the year, and I can see this number going up. As for Terrence, most of his missed lay-ups came early in the season when he was out of control taking a large number of attempts at the rim (a lot of floaters and fade-aways). His shot selection is much better now, so you can (or at least I can) expect to see his percentage to go up. So you take those guys out, there are 4 guys you can blame for this low FG% at the rim, and they are guys you can expect to keep this number low:
Looking At Kiki’s Style Of Play
Dec 18, 2009 Advanced Statistics
It has been 8 games since Kiki took over, and I think that there has been enough games to start comparing him to what Lawrence Frank has done. Below is the game by game data for each coach. I have included Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, and Pace. After the jump, we are going to examine these numbers further.