The Nets Didn’t Trade Dooling For Beasley? That’s Smart.
Jun 3, 2010 2010 Offseason, Advanced Statistics, Rumors, Yi Jianlian
I came across this information from NetsDaily, and when I read the title I did a double take. “It couldn’t have been straight up could it?” I said to myself. When I realized it was a proposed straight up deal, I was initially shocked. The Nets just turned down the #2 pick of the 2008 draft because they didn’t want to give up a role player who will more than likely be cut by the Nets. There was (and probably still is) a bit of outrage, and I was right there with them…
Then I thought about it some more, and you know what? This is a very smart move by Rod Thorn. I’m not even talking about the cap situations, which you guys probably already know about (only $500,000 of Dooling’s contract counts against the books if he is dropped by the 29th vs. Beasley’s nearly $5,000,000). This was a smart move because the Nets already have a better version of Michael Beasley on their roster, Yi Jianlian (and if you want to talk about salary, Yi’s contract for next year is about 1 million less than Beasley’s). This isn’t a joke either, I am dead serious.
Now, I am all about upgrading the huge hole at the PF spot (because there is one), but Beasley isn’t the one to do it. Preferable, we need an inside guy to start the game with a “stretch 4″ coming off the bench. Yi is that “stretch 4.” Bringing in Michael Beasley doesn’t fix that problem, since he basically does the same thing as Yi. Don’t believe that Beasley is a stretch 4? He shot 104 threes last year. What’s worse he shot 27.5% while shooting over 100 threes. That’s not the only similarity (with Yi winning out) between the two
Offense
Here are a few numbers from the fantastic tool, MySynergySports (a tool that tells you how successful a player is in certain situations – and even lets you watch video of it):
Iso Sets
- Michael Beasley – 325 possessions (24.5% of total)/.83 PPP (Points per possessions)/10.2% Turnovers
- Yi Jianlian – 90 possessions (12.5%)/.71 PPP/6.7% Turnovers
Post Ups
- Michael Beasley – 76 possessions (5.7% of total)/.71 PPP/14.5% Turnovers
- Yi Jianlian – 108 possessions (15%)/.86 PPP/10.2% Turnovers
Spot Ups
- Michael Beasley – 344 possessions (25.9% of total)/.86 PPP/5.8% Turnovers
- Yi Jianlian – 224 possessions (31.1%)/.88 PPP/4.5% Turnovers
DeMarcus Cousins vs. Derrick Favors
Jun 1, 2010 2010 Big Board, 2010 Draft, 2010 Offseason, Advanced Statistics, Analysis, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Devin Kharpertian, Draft, Evan Turner, Opinion, Point Counterpoint
The guy on the left. No, the right. No, left. No, right. Ugh, screw it. Take Zoubek.
(Fair warning: You thought my John Wall article was exhausting to read? This is about twice as long. Good luck, guys.)
Since the day the Basketball Gods confirmed that they do not exist and allowed Washington and Philadelphia to pick above us, a debate has raged on in NetsLand about who they should select with their upcoming #3 pick. Assuming John “The Great” Wall and Evan “The Franchise” Turner are selected with the first and second picks, the third pick remains much more up for debate – between Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech and DeMarcus Cousins of Kentucky. Both freshmen big men, both with pronounced strengths and weaknesses, both with a solid case to be drafted.
Unlike my blogger-in-crime Dennis Velasco, who has made up his mind already on who we shouldn’t take, I am far more split. Because of that I’m going to do the only thing I can decide on: debate with myself on the issue. That’s right. Welcome to my own version of Stephen Colbert’s Formidable Opponent, only this one promises to be much more about basketball and much less funny.
There are six main points to the argument that I see that can make or break the pick: athleticism, ability in the post, other basketball skills, production, better fit, and mental makeup. Thus, I will be arguing all six, split-personality style.
I swear, guys, I’m not crazy.
Onward!
Looking At Shooting Trends Using Motion Charts
Apr 9, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Yi
If you are a regular reader of the blog, you already know about the fantastic site HoopData.com (and seriously if you have never been there, you need to go…now). In addition to all of the stats that they provide, they also have a really cool feature called Motion Charts. These motion charts take all of the information they provide, and they display it in a way that makes it really easy to spot trends. They display three areas of statistics using motion charts; they are player stats, four factors, and what we are looking at today, shot locations.
Brook Lopez
Brook is a fantastic player, and his improvement this year over last year is fantastic. The main reason why is his improvement inside 10 feet:
This motion chart tells us that Brook Lopez is not only getting more attempts inside 10 feet, but he is shooting even better from this location. Last year, Brook was shooting 40% from this spot while shooting 2 shots per game. This year, Brook is taking 2.62 shots/game inside 10 feet while making 49% of his shots.
The Nets Haven’t Been The Worst Since The All-Star Break
Mar 12, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Opinion
I don’t know how many of you are familiar with Wayne Winston, but the man is one of the best sports analytics people in the business. In fact until recently he was doing statistical analysis for the Dallas Mavericks. Since he stopped doing his thing for the Mavericks, Winston published a book called Mathletics (where he breaks down advanced statistics for a few different sports) and he now runs a blog where he does his thing. Recently, over at WayneWinston.com Winston posted his “Post All-Star Rankings.” It was interesting to see that according to Winston, the Nets haven’t been the worst team in the NBA since the break. Hell, they weren’t even second worst. The Nets ranked 23rd in Winston’s rankings, with the Knicks ranking last (awesome). Let’s allow Winston to explain his rankings:
In the three weeks since the all star break here is a summary of how well each NBA team has played. For example, the Magic have played 10.65 points better than average. The Magic have played 2.38 points better than average on offense and 8.26 points better than average on defense. Note the Nets have really improved and the Knicks are now the league’s worst team. Kudos to the unsung Bucks, who have played great. These numbers are adjusted for strength of schedule. Makes you think that a Lakers-Cavs final series is not inevitable!
Now, let’s look at the Nets specifically. The Nets have an overall ranking of -4.12119, meaning they play about 4 points worse than their opponents. Breaking it down to both sides of the ball, the Nets have been playing -4.29861 on the offensive end, but on the flip side, the Nets have been better than their opponents on defense. Now it hasn’t been by much (only 0.17742 better), but with the way the Nets played defense, any kind of better is good news.
If you have been watching Nets games, you know the Nets have been playing better since the break. With Brook Lopez continuing to dominate (up until the last two games where he faced real tough defenders), Courtney Lee finally breaking out of his funk, Terrence Williams starting to get it, and Devin Harris returning to last year’s all-star form. I have to echo Mark’s sentiments from yesterday:
So you tell me: can the worst team in basketball honestly be expected to accomplish all this in a given night? After being legitimately angry with this team and organization for the better part of the last four months, I can honestly say I now sympathize with these guys. Between the young talent of guys like Lopez, Harris, Williams and Lee, and some veteran good-guys like Keyon Dooling, Hayes and Hassell, these Nets need to find a way to get out of this discussion as being among the worst ever, because they just don’t belong there.
This team is just not the worst team in NBA history. They don’t do things that bad teams do (most of the time), and they go out and compete. Hopefully they can come away with 3 more wins.
Looking At Courtney Lee’s Numbers Again
Feb 25, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has been a tough player to evaluate. He has really been feast or famine, either going for 20+ points or less than 10, and nothing really in between. Also, since Lee was the big piece (and maybe the only piece that finishes the season as a Net) acquired in the Vince Carter trade we like to keep an eye on how he has been playing. We did one of these updates after game #17, and another after game #38. With a little lull in the schedule, I thought now would be a good time to look at Courtney’s numbers again.
All data from Hoopdata.com
Offensive Game
Usage & Turnovers
Courtney Lee’s usage dropped a touch yet again, going from 17.96 to 17.81. Now, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, since the big talking point going into the season was as Courtney’s usage increased, his numbers would drop. It is good to see the Nets keeping his usage as a manageable rate, because my fear was (and still is to a point) that Courtney’s usage would increase to over 20, making him inefficient. Lee’s Turnover Rate continues to rise (it is now sitting at 7.75), but it is still well below league average, so that means he is still doing a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball.
Courtney’s Shot
Courtney Lee’s shooting percentage is returning to the level he is shooting last year (he is actually shooting better this year from 10-23 feet), except for two key locations, the three point line and inside 10 feet (not at the rim). I personally think that this is due to the fact that he is being defended differently here in New Jersey than he was in Orlando last year. Last year, as the 5th or 6th option on that Magic team, Lee didn’t have defenses focus on him, this allowed him to get off a lot of open threes (we have discussed this in the past), but he was also able to get a lot of shots in the lane because teams would rather let Lee shoot than double off of Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard, or Hedo Turkaglu. This year, Courtney has settled into the third option, and with that he isn’t getting nearly as many open threes or runners in the lane.
These two locations are the main reason for his inconsistency. If Courtney Lee is hitting his three pointers and runners, he is going to have a big game. If not, he is going to have a game where he really struggles.
Defense
What has really impressed me about Courtney Lee is that no matter whether is his having a good game or an off-night, he brings it on the defensive end. In my opinion, Courtney Lee is one of the better defenders in the NBA, and the numbers back him up. Lee gets more rebounds this year, he gets more steals, blocks more shots, and takes more charges.
The Nets And Four Factors
Feb 24, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Analysis, Four Factors
The Nets are bad, we know this, but why are they so bad? There are plenty of reasons, but I think the one of the best ways of figuring out what is going wrong with a team is to look at the four factors. Now, we have looked at four factors a couple times before, but this time we are going to look at the Nets’ four factors in wins and in losses to see if there is anything different that they are doing when they win. If there is, is it something that can carry over to the remaining games? Let’s take a look at the chart:
The Two Key Factors
Looking at the graph above, you can see the two key factors for the Nets. They are eFG% and Turnover Rate. Now eFG% makes sense. If the Nets shoot better, naturally they are going to have a better chance to win. So why do the Nets hit more shots in these 5 games? Well, just a few guesses here, but they probably get Brook Lopez a lot of touches down low, and in addition, when he passes out of the double team his teammates are making shots.
The other factor is Turnover Rate. It makes sense. If the Nets keep their turnovers down while they are shooting good, that means there are more possessions available for the Nets to take shots. That means more points and a better chance of winning. Also, the low Turnover Rater number means that the Nets offense must have been working well in these wins.
A Surprise
I actually thought that the Nets’ Free Throw Rate in wins was going to be a lot higher than their Free Throw Rate in losses, but in reality this is the opposite. The Nets get to the line at an above-average rate in losses, but they go to the line at a below average rate in wins. I think this can be explained because in losses, the Nets don’t shoot well (see eFG%), so for them to even have a chance at scoring, they need to attack the basket more. When they attack the basket more, they are going to get fouled more.
Revisiting Kiki’s Style Of Play
Feb 5, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Kiki Vandeweghe
In early December, exactly 8 games into Kiki’s tenure as head coach, we looked at his team’s playing style. A style that was completely different to what Lawrence Frank was doing. If you don’t feel like going back through the post, here is the spreadsheet:
Switching The Lineup Around
Jan 26, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Coaching, Jarvis Hayes, Kris Humphries, Roster, Yi
Since the return of Yi, the Nets have had a stable starting lineup (with the exception of the last game – Devin’s wrist injury), but let’s face it. The lineup we have on the court isn’t working right now, and I think that a switch in the starting lineup is well overdue. In my opinion, there are two players you can consider moving to the bench and have them be the new sixth man. Those two players are Yi and Chris Douglas-Roberts. This is because these are the two guys that are “struggling” the most right now. So how are we going to analyze this? Well, in the book Mathletics (a book I highly recommend), Wayne Winston dedicates an entire chapter to analyzing lineups, and we are going to use some of the techniques he uses to see which lineup the Nets should start with.
Nets on the Net: 1/25/10 Edition
Jan 25, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Al Iannazzone, Dave D'Alessandro, Nets on the Net
Dave D’Alessandro always has a way of cutting through it all and asking the obvious but important questions: Which raises the question: If they spent nearly four hours practicing defense on Tuesday and another 90 minutes reviewing their principles on Thursday, what was the emphasis exactly?
Al Iannazzone talks about how the Nets are actually getting worse: But here’s looking at a small sample of games before we go big picture. Over the four-game trip, the Nets allowed the opposition to shoot 55.4 percent and average 112.8 points per game. They were beaten by an average of 25 points, prompting one of most honest answers a player ever uttered.
The always super Hardowood Paroxysm looks at PER and usage rate midway through the season for every team – including the Nets, who contrary to popular belief, are still part of the NBA.
Courtney Lee Revisited
Jan 14, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Courtney Lee
A couple months back, we looked at Courtney Lee’s game by the numbers. It was 17 games in, and what I determined from the numbers then, is that if Lee could improve his shot he would turn into a solid player. Has that happened? Well, now that we are 38 games in, I thought it would be nice to look at the numbers again.
Once again, all numbers are from HoopData.com.
Offensive Game
Courtney’s Usage Rate has actually dropped from game #17, and it is now sitting at 17.96. Since game #17, Courtney Lee has turned the ball over a little more (Turnover Rate = 6.90% earlier in the year to 7.32% right now). This is still a very good number as it is well below the league average (11.52%). Courtney’s Assist Rate continues to rise with the increase in usage rate. It has gone up from 13.04 in the beginning of the year to 13.56 now. This is still slightly below average though. The last number we looked at earlier in the year was Free Throw Rate. Courtney’s Free Throw Rate after game #17 was.39. Lee’s Free Throw Rate right now is .25. The numbers make it look like he is settling for more jumpers instead of attacking the basket like he did in the beginning of the year.
Defensive Game
Lee’s steals per game has dropped slightly from 1.7 to 1.6 (still well above average = .7), his blocks are at the same number as they were at game #17.
Has Lee’s Shooting Improved?
Lee’s baskets are starting to get assisted on at a slightly higher level. Lee has gone from having his baskets assisted on 53.3% of the time to 54.2%. This means that he is forced to get his own shot slightly less, which means easier shots should be coming around. Has that made him a better shooter? At the rim, Lee’s % is slightly up, going from around 50% to 57.7%. 17 games in Courtney Lee was terrible inside 10 feet. He was shooting it around 10% in fact. Now, he has nearly doubled it, and he is shooting 20% inside 10 feet. It isn’t as good as last year (30%), but it is improving. From 10-15 feet, he has dropped from around 45% to 42.9%. The last number I want to look at is his 3 point shooting percentage. It has improved since last time we looked at it (around 30% before 42% now), but it is still well below the 60% he was shooting in Orlando. The reason? In Orlando he was getting a lot of open looks, looks that allowed him to jump straight up and straight down (remember how important that is). In New Jersey, shots are tougher, meaning he will miss more.
The trend though is his shooting is starting to rise to levels around last year’s percentage (save for the 3 point percentage). His PER has hovered right around where it was in the begining of the year. It was 12.01 after game 17 and it is now 11.98. I think the slight decrease in PER is due to the rise in turnovers.