Mr. Versatility: Terrence Williams
Mar 16, 2010 Analysis, Terrence Williams
Before he was drafted last June, the one word that always seemed to be associated with Terrence Williams was “versatile.” He had the size and muscle to be an option at small forward, but his ball handling and passing ability made him an option to run the offense and create match-up problems as a point forward. To demonstrate his versatility, he had a double-double in his first professional game in October, and three more before the end of November. But his up and down shooting marred portions of his rookie season, and some off-the-court attitude issues cut into his playing time. So, while the following might sound like an obvious statement, let me preface it by saying that I’m ecstatic that TWill has gotten his act together to be in a position for me to be so obvious:
Terrence Williams does a lot of things really, really well.
For the month of March, Williams has averaged 14 points, 4.9 assists and 6.7 rebounds in about 30 minutes of playing time. It’s been a stunning turnaround for the rookie who some were saying early-on was bordering on becoming a bust. Instead, TWill has forced his way onto the court during critical end-of-game situations, primarily because he can do so many things to help his team win at three different positions.
Let’s start with some passing numbers. At the beginning of the season, I used to pick apart Williams for getting too “cute” with his passes, and underestimating the speed of the NBA game. In the past six weeks, TWill seems to be grasping this idea, and while he still makes mistakes, he’s also distributed some of the prettiest dimes I’ve ever seen from a player his size. When looking at how he stacks up against other SFs in the league (which is still his most natural position in my opinion), TWill’s 16.3 assist ratio is good for 6th at the position. Against other rookies, TWill’s ratio places him 10th, but he’s the only non-PG in the top 10, according to ESPN’s statistics.
As for his rebounding – which I think might be his strongest skill – TWill’s rebound rate of 11 is good for 9th at the SF position (and tied with LeBron James, who as I’m reminded often, is built like a linebacker). He is comfortably the best non PF/C rebounder on the Nets’ roster.
The one knock against TWill continues to be his shooting percentage, but he even has a strong suit there. While it’s still a relatively small sample, Williams as demonstrated a real penchant for the corner three, shooting 12-22 (55 percent) from that spot on the floor. As I’ve ranted on about in the past, the Nets were one of the most effective teams from the corner last year, and I think they would have gotten off to a better start if they had a healthy Jarvis Hayes to hit from the corner, along with a more confident Courtney Lee. As it stands, Williams may want to hide out in the corner a bit more on offense as well, but he may be too busy helping his team by running the offense and grabbing rebounds to focus on that statistic right now.
You Can’t Blame Yi for Everything
I certainly understand why a lot of Nets fans are down on Yi Jianlian, and I’ve certainly taken my fair share of shots at him this season, but I also think people need to be fair and realistic about how much Yi’s individual performances actually affect the team overall. When Yi left Sunday’s game against the Knicks with an ankle injury, there were a few comments about how much better the Nets played once Yi left – never mind the fact that in the first quarter, EVERYONE on the Nets was stinking up the joint, regardless of who was on the floor.
Here are the facts: looking at the simple rating for each player on the Nets roster – which is a statistic found at 82games.com that takes into account the team’s offensive and defensive performance when a specific players is on and off the court – you can determine that Yi does have a negative impact on the team when he plays. However, there are many other players on the roster, who currently get significant minutes, that have a more detrimental effect on the team than Yi.
According to 82games, Yi has played 40 percent of the team’s minutes this season. Yi is putting up a Player Efficiency Rating of 13.8 in those minutes, while opposing players matched up against Yi have a PER of 22.5, good for a differential of -8.7. Meanwhile, when Yi plays, the team’s +/- is -7, and when he’s off the floor, their +/- is -13.4, good for a differential of +6.4. When you add these two differentials together, you get Yi’s simple rating of -2.7.
Yi’s simple rating is sixth best on the Nets roster, which is more of a statement of how bad the Nets are (shocking). Only two players have a positive simple rating, Brook Lopez and Keyon Dooling. The other players ahead of Yi include Courtney Lee, and two players who have a relatively small sample size, Bobby Simmons and Sean Williams.
So that puts Devin Harris (-2.8), Kris Humphries (-3.5), Terrence Williams (-3.7) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (-3.8) all behind Yi in terms of simple rating, meaning the team is overall playing worse when those players are on the court when compared to the team’s performance when Yi is on the floor. Of those four players, I think the one that is most worth picking out for the sake of this post is Humphries. While I’ve been relatively impressed with Hump’s aggressiveness and attitude since he came over from Dallas (and thankful to have him over Najera), these numbers demonstrate that he’s not necessarily a better full-time option at the four than Yi. Just based on some observations, I think Humphries has many of the same issues as Yi – occasionally soft on defense, a penchant for bad shots and inappropriate times – so the section of the fan-base that believes Hump MUST start instead of Yi may want to look at the numbers to determine if it really makes a difference for the Nets.
Nets fans need to go a little easier on Yi. Don’t get me wrong, I still believe the Nets absolutely must upgrade at PF next season and that the Yi as a starter experiment should come to the end. But the Nets aren’t bad solely because of Yi, or even primarily because of Yi. The Nets are bad because they are a bad team, and the 7-wins they’ve accumulate is proof enough that their issues run beyond one player.
Looking At Terrence Williams’ Offensive Game
Mar 5, 2010 Analysis, Terrence Williams
It has taken a lot longer than expected, but I think Terrence Williams game (on the offensive end) has finally reached a level that Nets’ fans were hoping to get from him at the start of the season. Before looking at his game Wednesday night, let’s talk about what the problem was early on. I attribute it to him logging so many minutes early at so many different positions that he was unable to get comfortable and learn. Yesterday, Williams talked to Colin Stephenson about it:
“I really didn’t know what to expect,” he said Thursday. “I tried to come here and use the same game that I used in college, but my shot wasn’t falling. I had to re-evaluate myself as a player and change my game to more so going to the hole, but still do the other little things that I do and love to do, as far as, like, passing, playing ‘D’ and rebounding.”
The little things are coming along for Terrence Williams, and they added up to a great game against LeBron James and the Cavs. Let’s look at what makes him a threat on the offensive end.
In The Halfcourt
Terrence Williams’ first step is amazing, and he is starting to really use that to his advantage now. Look at the above clip. When he makes the catch, Anthony Parker (his defender) doesn’t even worry about Williams’ shot. He is defending the drive, and that is what makes this move even more amazing. He takes the space that Parker gives him, puts him on his heels, and crosses him over, getting right to the rim to convert the lay-up.
Is Brook Lopez’s Jump Shot an Asset?
Mar 3, 2010 Analysis, Brook Lopez
Brook Lopez’s offensive tendencies have been frequently dissected on this site and for good reason. He’s by far the most dynamic offensive talent on this roster, and may be one of the best offensive centers in the league. Lopez has been praised around the league for having the ability to keep defenders honest by occasionally journeying out of the post to hit a 16-20 foot jumper. But when looking closer at Lopez’s statistics, especially when compared to other centers around the league, there is good reason to question whether the long two is really a praiseworthy component of Brook’s offensive game.
Thanks to the always spectacular Hoopdata.com, I took at look at how Lopez’s shooting percentage from 16-23 feet compares with other centers who shoot from that spot on the floor with similar frequency. So for the sake of analysis, I’m comparing Lopez to all centers who have played 30 or more games and are averaging at least one 16-23 foot attempt per game.
Lopez currently attempts 2.7 16-23 footers per game, good for 9th out of the 25 qualifying centers. Lopez sinks about .9 of these shots per game, good for 33 percent. According to Hoopdata, only one other Center, Josh Powell on the Lakers, has a lower percentage on long twos than Lopez. Al Jefferson and Roy Hibbert are tied with Lopez at 33 percent.
Of the 25 players charted, the average shooting percentage on long twos was 41 percent. Additionally, of the eight centers ranked ahead of Lopez in terms of attempts per game, only Zydrunas Ilgauskas (35 percent) and Jason Thompson (37 percent) have shooting percentage of under 40 percent from that distance. The center attempting the most shots from 16-23 feet, David Lee (4.9 attempts), is averaging 45 percent from that distance – something the Nets should keep in the back of their minds when Lee hits the open market this summer.
So while Brook likes to shoot long twos frequently, these number suggest that the 16-23 footer really isn’t an effective part of Lopez’s offense. When you look at Lopez’s percentages at the rim (64 percent) and within 10-feet (49 percent), he’s just so more efficient in and around the post, it’s easy to question why he journeys out from that distance in the first place.
The Nets Power Forward Outage
Mar 2, 2010 Analysis, Josh Boone, Kris Humphries, Yi
With far and away the worst record in the NBA and the league’s worst offense, it’s no surprise that statistically speaking, outside of the center position, that the Nets have been outplayed by their opponents at every spot on the floor this season. However, when looking at season stats for the Nets production by position courtesy of 82games, I was interested by just how poorly the team has performed at the PF position.
Overall, Nets power forwards, which include Yi Jianlian, Kris Humphries, Josh Boone and at the very beginning of the season, Bobby Simmons, have put up a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 11.4 this season, while opposing PFs have a PER of 19.5 against the Nets, good for a differential of -8.1. Not only is this the worst PER differential at the position in the entire league, but only one team, Sacramento comes relatively close in terms of this dubious honor, with a PER differential of -6.4 at the PF position.
For the season, Nets PFs are averaging (per 48 minutes), 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and an effective field goal percentage of .423, while allowing their opponents 22.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, .9 blocks and an eFG of 52 percent. When looking at opponents scoring output for all five positions, the PF average of 22.3 is the highest.
On the plus side, despite conspiracy theorists nicknaming coach Kiki Vandeweghe “Yiki,” Nets PFs are tied with the SF position for fewest field goal attempts on the team with 14.4 per game. So, at least the organization acknowledges the deficiencies at the position by not designing an offense geared towards getting Yi and company more shots.
But what’s most alarming is just how well opposing PFs are playing against the Nets, indicating the team’s defensive issues at the position. While Yi looked impressive on the offensive end when he initially came back from his injury in December, he was still unable to demonstrate any improvement on the defensive end. The same could be said for Kris Humphries, who, with increased playing time in New Jersey, has shown many of the same traits that Nets fans slam Yi for – a propensity to take jump shots at poor times, and poor defense. Opposing PFs are putting up a PER of 22.4, with 26.7 points and an eFG of 59 percent when Humphries are on the floor.
The conclusions that can be drawn from these numbers should be obvious: upgrading at the four has to be a priority for the team this off-season. With free agents-to-be Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer already indicating that they have no desire to play for the Nets, it will be interesting to see how the Nets will go about upgrading the position. But unless the Nets want to continue dealing with a huge deficit at the position next season, the status quo can not be the same. Yi, Boone and Humphries can not get the bulk of the playing time at the four next season, unless the Nets get significantly better at the other four positions to compensate.
Nets’ Opponents And Four Factors
Feb 25, 2010 Advanced Stats, Analysis, Four Factors
Continuing from yesterday’s post where we looked at the four factors for the Nets in wins and losses. I thought it would be interesting to also look at the four factors for the Nets opponents in both wins and losses. While yesterday’s post was more focused on what the Nets did on offense (remember in wins the Nets excelled at keeping their turnovers down – TOR – and making shots – eFG%), today’s look at the opponent four factors will tell you what the Nets did on defense in both wins and losses. So here is the chart:
The Two Key Factors
Just like the Nets’ Four Factors, the key factors in the Nets opponents Four Factors are eFG% and Turnover Rate. In wins, the Nets’ Opponents eFG% was 47.76%, well below league average, while in losses, teams had an eFG% of 52.23%. Naturally, this means that the Nets are getting in their opponents’ faces and playing tough defense in wins (rocket science, I know). This also leads to a higher opponent Turnover rate. Their Opponent Turnover rate in wins is 15.89 (well above average), while in losses it is 13.55. That is a pretty big drop-off.
Offensive Rebound Rate
Something that this chart tells you is that the Nets are really bad at securing the defensive rebound. Even in wins, the Nets allow their opponents to grab offensive boards at an above average rate (in losses it is even worse). Despite Brook Lopez, it kind of makes sense, the Nets are small-ish everywhere else. Yi plays small, Jarvis Hayes is more of a shooter than a rebounder or defensive stopper. Courtney Lee boards pretty well for his position, but that is about it.
The Nets And Four Factors
Feb 24, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Analysis, Four Factors
The Nets are bad, we know this, but why are they so bad? There are plenty of reasons, but I think the one of the best ways of figuring out what is going wrong with a team is to look at the four factors. Now, we have looked at four factors a couple times before, but this time we are going to look at the Nets’ four factors in wins and in losses to see if there is anything different that they are doing when they win. If there is, is it something that can carry over to the remaining games? Let’s take a look at the chart:
The Two Key Factors
Looking at the graph above, you can see the two key factors for the Nets. They are eFG% and Turnover Rate. Now eFG% makes sense. If the Nets shoot better, naturally they are going to have a better chance to win. So why do the Nets hit more shots in these 5 games? Well, just a few guesses here, but they probably get Brook Lopez a lot of touches down low, and in addition, when he passes out of the double team his teammates are making shots.
The other factor is Turnover Rate. It makes sense. If the Nets keep their turnovers down while they are shooting good, that means there are more possessions available for the Nets to take shots. That means more points and a better chance of winning. Also, the low Turnover Rater number means that the Nets offense must have been working well in these wins.
A Surprise
I actually thought that the Nets’ Free Throw Rate in wins was going to be a lot higher than their Free Throw Rate in losses, but in reality this is the opposite. The Nets get to the line at an above-average rate in losses, but they go to the line at a below average rate in wins. I think this can be explained because in losses, the Nets don’t shoot well (see eFG%), so for them to even have a chance at scoring, they need to attack the basket more. When they attack the basket more, they are going to get fouled more.
Signs of the “Old” Devin Harris
Feb 19, 2010 Analysis, Devin Harris
I’m going to pull two sets of numbers on Devin Harris to help set the table for this post:
Points per game: 21.3
Field Goal %: 44%
Assists per game: 6.9
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 8.8
and
Points: 19.9
Field Goal: 43%
Assists: 8.7
Free Throw Attempts: 7.0
Obviously, these two sets of numbers are not identical, but they are comparable, and that’s a good thing. The first set are Devin’s final season numbers from his breakout 2008-09 campaign, and the second set details Devin’s performance in the month of February, which includes seven games since he missed one due to injury.
Since the beginning of the season, where there was a noticeable decline in his numbers, I’ve been one of Harris’ harshest critics, questioning if last season was a fluke, or if he was capable of carrying a team offensively without another all-star backcourt-mate like Vince Carter. He still has his flaws as a player, and his shot selection late in games could you leave you scratching your head, but the fact that he’s getting his scoring, field goal percentage and free throw attempts closer to last year’s levels is a good sign. What makes me most optimistic about this stretch of play is that the light seemed to go on after he missed four and a half games with his wrist injury. Perhaps Devin’s finally starting to regain his touch now that he’s a little more healthy.
Adding a little more credence to the idea that Devin’s wrist injury was affecting his scoring ability is his field goal percentage on long twos and threes the past month. Harris is shooting 42 percent combined on all jump shots from 16-feet and out (including threes). He’s shooting 32 percent on just his three pointers in February. Compare that to earlier this season, like in December, when Devo was atrocious from beyond the arc, shooting 22 percent on 11-50. A Devin Harris who can mix in an occasional jump shot with his usual attacking of the basket, is a dangerous offensive player.
What we now need to see is how much longer Devin can keep this play up for. It’s without a doubt, his most prolonged stretch of good offensive basketball this season. I’m still waiting to see if he’s capable of that transcendent game where he’s unstoppable. He had his fair share of those last season, like his 47 point, 8 assist game against Phoenix on 11/30/08 or his 41 point, 13 assist performance against Dallas on 12/19/08. Harris looked capable of one of those nights early on during Wednesday’s game against Miami, scoring 12 points in the first quarter, but he sat an incredibly long stretch between the first and second quarters, and when he returned, he seemed to have lost that scoring touch. I think once Devin mixes in one of those “big” games where he’s the best offensive player on the floor, I can more safely conclude that the Harris of old is “back.”
Trade-Deadline Aftermath In Regards To The Nets
Feb 19, 2010 Analysis, Opinion, Trades
The Nets decided to stand pat at the trading deadline this year, but it seems like they were the only ones. There were a lot of teams clearing space at the deadline, and now the Nets aren’t the only ones with a lot of cap space available going into this offseason. Now that the dust has settled, I think it is important to look at the teams with newly discovered capspace and compare their situations to the Nets.All numbers moving forward are based on an estimated salary cap of $53 million next year.
Sacramento Kings
Breakdown
By shipping Kevin Martin out, the Kings have freed up slightly less than $19 million (before taking into consideration the contract of a lottery pick). This can make them a player for a a real good second tier guy. It has long been a plan that if the Nets can’t get a max contract guy (Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh), the Nets would end up “settling” for a second tier guy like Joe Jonson, Rudy Gay, or Carlos Boozer (this is if any of them are willing to take less than the max). The Kings can now sneak in and take away one of these guys.
Advantage
So why would a player go to Sacramento over New Jersey? There is a pretty special player named Tyreke Evans over there. There has to be a shooting guard out there just salivating about the chance to play with him, plus they have another lottery pick coming this year. A nice little core building in Sacramento.
Brook Lopez Is Getting Plenty Of Touches
Feb 18, 2010 Advanced Stats, Analysis, Brook Lopez
Like just about every other Nets fan, I think that Brook Lopez needs more touches. In fact, after last night’s game, I was ready to blast Kiki and Brook’s teammates for not getting him the ball enough. To prove that he wasn’t getting the ball enough, I went over to my favorite statistical website (HoopData.com) and I looked for Brook’s Usage Rate, expecting to see it low compared to other NBA centers. Well, I was very surprised with what I saw. As it turns out, Brook Lopez is getting plenty of touches. Among centers who get over 25 minuets per game (37 of them), Brook Lopez is 5th with a Usage Rate of 23.73. This is slightly below guys like Al Jefferson, Shaq, Tim Duncan, and Chris Kaman. Brook is ahead of guys like Dwight Howard, David Lee, and Andrew Bogut. The average usage rate among centers is 16.92.
Usage Rate measures the percentage of possessions used by the player. While it isn’t a perfect measure of a player’s touches (it only counts possessions that directly end because of the player - free throws turnovers, and shots), it is the best that we have at this point and time.