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The Hypothetical Dwightness of Dealing


It’s May 30th, and the Brooklyn Nets have just won the draft lottery, securing the rights to this year’s draft prize, Kentucky’s whirling pterodactyl Anthony Davis.

Amidst celebration, Billy King’s telephone rings. On the other side is Otis Smith, Orlando Magic general manager. He gives you one finite offer: Brook Lopez in a sign-and-trade, and the #1 overall pick, for Dwight Howard.

What do you do?

Many I’ve spoken to echo a similar sentiment: absolutely. The Nets were willing to give away Brook Lopez with some spare parts and five first-round draft picks, while still taking on Hedo Turkoglu’s contract. Trading for Howard guarantees that reluctant franchise face Deron Williams signs the maximum contract the Brooklyn Nets pray he signs, and that Brooklyn kicks off with the best point-big tandem in the NBA.

But others don’t. I am one of those others. And I’d go one step further: I wouldn’t trade the #1 pick for Howard alone. Read more…

Categories: Analysis

What James Harden can tell us about Brook Lopez


The Oklahoma City Thunder made an improbable comeback in Saturday night’s game to complete a sweep of the Dallas Mavericks. Down 86-73 with 9:44 left in the fourth quarter, the Thunder rattled off two runs to reclaim control: a 15-2 run to tie the game at 88 with 6:05 remaining, then an 8-0 run to put the team up 96-91 with 3:00 left. It wasn’t the shooting of Kevin Durant or the athleticism of Russell Westbrook that carried the Thunder back, it was one James Harden that ran the show.

By repeating a play called “Angle,” a pick-and-roll at the top of the key, with Harden as the playmaker and either Nick Collison or Serge Ibaka as the screener, Harden got into the lane with ease, hitting six field goals either at the rim or in the space directly in front of it in those final nine minutes.

So what does this have to do with the Nets? Read more…

Categories: Analysis

Defense Against Boston: Packing the Paint, And How It Failed

April 15th, 2012 1 comment


In a practice session early this season, Kris Humphries lauded the success of the Chicago Bulls’ defensive strategy. The Bulls are what he calls a “blue” team; “they pack the paint” with defenders, Humphries said, in the hopes of pushing offenses to the corners, funneling slashers away from the basket and forcing opponents to beat them with difficult shots. To help make this possible, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson are both quick and long enough to both contest shots at the rim and help out of position when the situation calls for them to leave the paint.

The Nets’ big man rotation is hardly Chicago’s. Starters Shelden Williams and Kris Humphries are slow-footed plodders, and the quicker of the two (Humphries) isn’t reactionary enough to make those immediate reads. Jordan Williams is a talented young player off the bench offensively, but still suffers from conditioning issues and is hardly a player built on quickness. Johan Petro is the worst of both worlds, both slow in foot and in reactions.

Nonetheless, the Nets attempted the same defensive strategy against Boston; keep them out of the paint as much as possible, push shooters and bigs out to the corners, and force them to beat you from those spots.

Unfortunately, they did. Read more…

Categories: Analysis

Three Things I’ve Liked Watching Recently

April 12th, 2012 No comments


I’ve been pretty negative lately about the Nets, for a variety of reasons, Mostly because of the Nets. But there’s more than just the negativity, especially in the past fourteen games since the Gerald Wallace trade. So in honor of positivity, happiness, and all things not terrible, here are three Nets-related things I’ve enjoyed watching recently.

Read more…

Categories: Analysis

On Brook Lopez

April 10th, 2012 5 comments


The New Jersey Nets announced this weekend that Brook Lopez, just five games played on the season as a result of various injuries, wouldn’t play another game this season. They were shutting him down, ensuring that he’d rest his ankle and foot injuries enough to return next season with 100% health. With the Nets far out of the playoff race, it didn’t make any sense to play him, risking he’d exacerbate his already dangerous injuries.

Lopez is a restricted free agent this offseason, and teams will come calling. It’s possible that his recent injuries will scare enough teams away from offering him substantial money, keeping him in Brooklyn. It’s also possible that some team will throw an ungodly amount of money at him — given how some centers have gotten paid in the past few seasons, it wouldn’t be surprising — and the next time we see Brook in Brooklyn will be in an away uniform.

After 246 consecutive games played and 239 consecutive starts, this season became what’s hopefully an anomaly in what’s already a strange career. Read more…

Categories: Analysis, Thoughts

ESPN’s Land O’Lakers Blog talks to me about Nets-Lakers

April 3rd, 2012 No comments

In anticipation of tonight’s Nets-Lakers battle royale of the century at the Staples Center, Andrew Kamenetzky of ESPN Los Angeles’ Land O’Lakers blog was kind enough to answer a few of my hottest Lakers questions. I also answered a few Nets questions for Andrew over at that blog, which you can read here.

Onward:

Kobe Bryant’s having an up-and-down season — he followed up a season-worst 3/21 performance (in which he hit the game-winner) with a dominant 40 points on 28 shots. How would you characterize the season Kobe’s had thus far?

    As far Kobe’s shooting goes, he’s been extremely erratic all season all season long, and lately, has trended towards rough sledding. In February, he shot 40.2 percent from the field. In March, 38.7 percent. I’d like to think his performance against the Warriors on Sunday marked the start of a bounce-back April. However, based on the template established this season, it feels more random than foreshadowing.

    As for the reasons behind these struggles, there are many possible explanations. Kobe recently copped to some fatigue, between his league leading 2044 (as of Monday) minutes played, this truncated season’s pace and the yeoman’s efforts demanded of him for much of the season as a scorer and facilitator. That will take a toll on any player, much a 33-year old who, when you factor playoff games, has logged roughly the equivalent of 19 NBA seasons. Perhaps Bryant’s wrist and/or knee and/or ankle is hurting more than he’s let on. He’s also taking far too many 3′s (5 per game) for a guy shooting 29 percent, which factors into his low overall numbers. Whether this volume is the result of Mike Brown’s design or Kobe taking advantage of a green light is a matter of debate, but it’s not helping Kobe’s efficiency. And finally, there was once a more concerted effort to create off-ball action for Kobe, which resulted in some high percentage looks. These days, not as much.

    All in all, Kobe’s having a high-end, typically well-rounded season, and remains among the NBA’s elite. But he’s really been struggling from the floor, and tired as this debate may be, there are games when you wonder if the Lakers really would be better off with The Mamba taking fewer shots.

    Given the Nets’ depleted front line, do you expect Bynum to get more touches than usual tonight?

      Probably not, to be honest. The Lakers don’t make a habit of milking frontcourt mismatches, for reasons ranging from poor focus, impatience and, quite frankly, Kobe still “eating first,” so to speak. Bynum’s also day-to-day with a left ankle sprained Sunday against Golden State, which could hurt his effectiveness. And frankly, Drew’s recent behavior makes me hedge my bets. For the last few weeks, his on-court body language and post-game comments have reflected detachment and entitlement, and his effort has been erratic. This has been displayed most prominently on the defensive end, but it’s even prevented a consistent willingness to work hard to establish deep position for easy scores. If he’s not involved early, it’s easy to picture him in cruise control.

      How do you think the Lakers plan to stop Deron Williams tonight?

        That’s an interesting dilemma. I imagine Mike Brown will start with Ramon Sessions on him, but in this matchup, he’ll be surrendering some size and, quite frankly, defensive ability. If he struggles, I think this will eventually become a by-committee effort between Kobe Bryant, Matt Barnes and Metta World Peace, depending on the other matchups are created by who the Nets have on the floor. Obviously, it’s not ideal to ask Kobe to expend as much energy of both sides of the ball as checking D.Will requires, but if other guys like Sessions, Pau Gasol and Bynum can pick up some scoring responsibilities, maybe Kobe can focus a little more on the defensive end.

        Then again, given how sloppy the Lakers’ defense has been of late, “stopping” Williams, which is a relative concept to begin with, may be the least of their concerns. To some degree, a big game from Deron is expected and anything less is a pleasant surprise. You might even say the same about Gerald Wallace, who’s been a recent killer against the Lakers. But if quality nights are also enjoyed by the likes of Kris Humphries, Marshon Brooks, Gerald Green, etc., then the Lakers could find themselves in a tougher game than necessary. Based on the most recent sample size, I’m betting on that scenario.

Categories: Analysis

Tank the tank

March 31st, 2012 3 comments

Too good not to steal from BKNetsFan at NetsDaily.

The Nets beat the Pacers on Wednesday. Wait, let me rephrase: the Nets tore the Pacers limb from limb, kicked the snot out of their carcasses, and laughed as their families mourned on Wednesday. The fourth quarter was unlike one I can recall seeing from the Nets this season; they poured on the matches after laying the gasoline throughout the first three quarters. Jumpers fell, open layups came in bunches, and the Pacers could do nothing but watch and beg for mercy, which the Nets never gave.

Last night, the Nets went down by as much as 19, played anti-Nets, crawled their way back, and eked out a 2-point victory. I refuse to offer platitudes because I haven’t seen what happened yet; blame the rigors of reality. All I know is the shock I felt checking scores on my phone in the final hour. The Nets don’t come back, ever.

I love when the Nets win. Over the past three seasons, I’ve become so accustomed to losing that I do my best to accept it long before the game ever starts. I think I’ve only twice been confident that the Nets should win a game in the past three seasons: once against a depleted Clippers team last season, and once against the Bobcats this season. All other games, I’ve weighed the probability that the Nets win in my head, and more often than not it’s well below 50%. Wins are a brief, soft rain in a three-year desert season.

Conversely, I hate when the Nets lose. Breaking down bad basketball, as much as I do it, just isn’t fun. It’s nauseating to watch Kris Humphries and Shelden Williams botch easy rotations and engage in the particularly striking level of miscommunication that leaves opponents uncovered at the rim. I hate watching Deron Williams take bad shots, even though he excels at making them, because that means the best offensive look that one of the best team offensive players in the universe sees in the 24 seconds he can create for all five players is a fallaway for himself. It’s excruciating to think the Nets can’t do better, regardless if they actually can.

Nonetheless, we’ve had many commenters here and elsewhere that feel elated at the mere possibility that more bad basketball is to follow. Thank goodness! you say. The Nets can tear it all down! Finally, the final 30 games of the season are irrelevant again!

Basketball is, in this man’s opinion, the best game on the planet. Yet, we’re rooting for it to fail. We’re rooting for players not to make plays. We’re rooting for less than mediocrity; and somehow, that’s the right long-term decision. I’m not disagreeing with that, it is. When you’re out of the race, gear down for the next one.

The Nets have won two games in a row for the 3rd time this season, and they’ve got a chance at three tonight. Erstwhile, Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist play in what’s potentially their final game of the season tonight against Louisville. Logic dictates that I root for the latter to win so I can see them more, in the hopes that next year they join the former, who I hope lose so that they have the opportunity.

A coach in middle school once told me, “I don’t care whether you win or lose, as long as you play your hardest and feel good about how you played. But winning feels good.” Regardless of my coach’s intentions, the system dictates that that’s not the right move: once you’ve lost the playoff push, get the hell down to the bottom of the standings ASAP. Abandon ship after abandoning all hope, and maybe you’ll be blessed with Anthony Davis instead of Austin Rivers. Something about that seems backwards, no?

I don’t pretend to have a solution. HoopIdea‘s come up with a few in their week on tanking, and though a select few of those few have significant merit, I’ve been wracking my brain trying to figure out how to reward success (competing at the highest level possible) and failure (boosting teams that legitimately suck) at the same time. One early suggestion from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested we rank lottery teams based on their total wins once they’ve been eliminated from the playoff race. Another popular suggestion is eliminating the weights altogether. One particularly cool plan proposes a five-year lottery, weighing team’s records over time to assess their long-term needs. These ideas have their flaws, but they’re certainly a step above “well, crap, better toss out Mark Madsen for 30-plus minutes.

Maybe one day. Until then, the race to the bottom plunges on.

Categories: Analysis

Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace: The Pick-and-Read

March 29th, 2012 No comments


There’s not too much to get excited about in New Jersey, but after last night’s win, it’s not overly optimistic to think that the Deron Williams-Gerald Wallace tandem could reinvigorate the Nets’ sometimes-DOA offense. Though Wallace didn’t shoot particularly well (4/15 from the field, including many missed layups), he helped the rest of the team do just that: during Wallace’s 35 minutes on the floor, his teammates shot 30/49 from the field, 5/9 from downtown. That’s 65 points, on 61.2% shooting from the field.

After the game, Wallace talked about how the team’s chemistry has improved since his first five games with the team. He specified defensive intensity, but another way the team has begun to improve is by utilizing Deron Williams and Wallace in pick-and-read plays offensively, giving themselves and their teammates open looks.

When discussing on-ball screen plays, we’re usually subject to one of two plays: the pick-and-roll, and the pick-and-pop. The play usually depends on the big man’s strength: David West is a guy who’s going to pick-and-pop often, but Dwight Howard will roll to the basket far more often than he’ll look for a jumper. But Gerald Wallace is one of those special 3/4 hybrids that can do both. Read more…

Categories: Analysis, Nets Playbook

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