Derrick Favors’ Offensive Skillset
Aug 12, 2010 Analysis, Derrick Favors, Devin Kharpertian, Video Breakdown
Transcript after the jump.
If We Want To Be Negative: 2011 NBA Draft Lottery Prospects
Jul 29, 2010 Analysis, Draft, Draft Lottery, Scouting
There seems to be two camps of fans regarding the New Jersey Nets and their offseason. The first are those that are mired in the negativity of recent Nets seasons, particular this past 12-win 2009-10 season, and the inability to sign any big free agents, particularly LeBron James and/or Chris Bosh. What stings even more to those in this camp is that secondary stars were not even wooed enough to join the Nets and those free agents that were actually signed do not measure up to those players the Nets “should have” signed. The other camp recognizes the positive strides the Nets have made with a new owner in Mikhail Prokhorov, a new and excellent coach in Avery Johnson, and see the free agents signed – Anthony Morrow, Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar, and Johan Petro – as a welcome change in direction towards athleticism, improved three-point shooting, and defense. Count myself in the latter camp, but for the sake of the extreme tempering of expectation, let’s say the Nets don’t make the playoffs and find themselves in the NBA Draft Lottery again. Who will potentially be available and how would they fit in with the team as it’s currently composed?
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Derrick Favors & Georgia Tech’s Offensive Issues
Jul 22, 2010 Analysis, Derrick Favors, Devin Kharpertian, Video Breakdown
Transcript after the jump.
DeMarcus Cousins vs. Derrick Favors
Jun 1, 2010 2010 Big Board, 2010 Draft, 2010 Offseason, Advanced Statistics, Analysis, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Devin Kharpertian, Draft, Evan Turner, Opinion, Point Counterpoint
The guy on the left. No, the right. No, left. No, right. Ugh, screw it. Take Zoubek.
(Fair warning: You thought my John Wall article was exhausting to read? This is about twice as long. Good luck, guys.)
Since the day the Basketball Gods confirmed that they do not exist and allowed Washington and Philadelphia to pick above us, a debate has raged on in NetsLand about who they should select with their upcoming #3 pick. Assuming John “The Great” Wall and Evan “The Franchise” Turner are selected with the first and second picks, the third pick remains much more up for debate – between Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech and DeMarcus Cousins of Kentucky. Both freshmen big men, both with pronounced strengths and weaknesses, both with a solid case to be drafted.
Unlike my blogger-in-crime Dennis Velasco, who has made up his mind already on who we shouldn’t take, I am far more split. Because of that I’m going to do the only thing I can decide on: debate with myself on the issue. That’s right. Welcome to my own version of Stephen Colbert’s Formidable Opponent, only this one promises to be much more about basketball and much less funny.
There are six main points to the argument that I see that can make or break the pick: athleticism, ability in the post, other basketball skills, production, better fit, and mental makeup. Thus, I will be arguing all six, split-personality style.
I swear, guys, I’m not crazy.
Onward!
Why are the Nets More Efficient?
Statistics can be a funny thing sometimes. Just when you expect them to say one thing, they paint a completely different picture and ruin everything.
I was all about doing a post today looking at the Nets pace factor and offensive efficiency since John Loyer interim coached against the Philadelphia 76ers a few weeks back, because I was convinced that the recent turnaround by the Nets was connected to them picking up the pace with Loyer’s influence. I found it interesting that Loyer was (unsuccessfully) imploring his team to run against the Sixers that night. With so many poor/underachieving shooters on the roster, a run and gun style was the only way to hide the offensive flaws of this team – or so I thought.
In reality, in the past seven games, where the Nets have gone 3-4, and played relatively well in every contest except their blowout loss to Chicago last weekend, the team has an offensive efficiency of 106.6; well above their season average of 97.6 (last in the league), and a mark that would actually rank the team 11th in the entire NBA in the category if they maintained that mark for an entire season. Seven games isn’t a huge sample size, but the differentiation is so significant, I can’t ignore it.
But here’s where things get a little crazy for me. While I was suspecting to see that the team’s pace had increased, it’s actually decreased in the past seven games. The Nets are averaging 89.4 possessions during that time period, down from their season average of 93.6. So if the Nets are becoming more offensively efficient with a slower pace, it must mean their halfcourt game is improving, right? Well, no. Not at all. For the season, the Nets are shooting 42.6 percent from the field, last in the NBA. In the past seven games, they are shooting 41 percent.
So what gives? Here’s where the stats start telling a story. In the past seven games, the Nets have done a phenomenal job protecting the ball and distributing it. During that stretch, they are averaging 22.4 assists per game, which would rank 5th in the league based on current season totals, and they are averaging 10.1 turnovers, which would be the best mark in the league.
And that explains a lot for me. The Nets are becoming a more efficient team offensively because they’re turning the ball over less and making more passes that lead to baskets. As I mentioned in my “Thoughts on the Game” yesterday, a lot of that has to do with the huge improvement of Terrence Williams, who may be better at distributing the ball than Devin Harris. With Williams running the point forward effectively, it takes the pressure off Devo as a ball handler and opens up the offense more.
So despite the fact that my original thesis was completely debunked, these are very positive developments for this organization as it heads into the final two weeks. It’s hard for me to say if the better play is reflective of an organizational shift in philosophy from Kiki or Loyer, or rather just an embodiment of some individual performances having a huge impact on the entire team. Either way, it bodes well for next season when the Nets are certain to have more talent on their roster that their current crop of “keepers” are learning how to play efficiently on the offensive end.
Are the Nets Better than the Wolves? And Should they Be?
Mar 31, 2010 Analysis, Opinion
So, a team wins its 10th game and steers clear of all-time infamy, and now all of a sudden they’re talking like world beaters. Well, not exactly, but if you followed the dialogue coming out of Monday’s surprise win against the San Antonio Spurs, there’s reason to believe the Nets have the 14-win Minnesota Timberwolves in their sights.
In Fred Kerber’s write-up in the New York Post, Brook Lopez said, “The way we’re playing, I think there’s a chance we can catch Minnesota.” Meanwhile, in a breakdown for Fanhouse, Tom Ziller opines on the Nets chances of catching the Wolves:
Probably not: for the Nets to bottle this energy and win many more games on the way out would be surprising, and while most of the opponents over the Wolves’ last nine games aren’t cupcakes, six of the contest will be fought at the Target Center. But Minnesota has lost 16 straight, and the Nets are (dare we say?) hot. That it could happen is a huge indictment of the Wolves, who really weren’t supposed to be this bad.
For a vast majority of the season, the Nets have justifiably been tabbed the worst team in the league, despite the fact that many pundits and fans seemed perplexed as to how things got so bad in New Jersey. Yes, the Nets were clearly not a playoff team as currently constructed, but with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez playing like borderline all-stars, there was no reason for this team to resemble one of the worst in NBA history. With that said, statistically speaking, the Nets have played like a bottom feeder, and even comparing their numbers head-to-head with the Timberwolves, it’s difficult for me not to give the edge to Minnesota.
In terms of average point differential, Minnesota holds the edge there, -9.5 points per game vs. the Nets -9.7 points per game. At least both teams are under the double-digit negative point differential threshold, a stigma I worried would still potentially be attached to the Nets even if they got to 10 wins. Looking at the team’s Pythagorean records, according to basketball-reference, the Wolves have played like a 16-58 team, while the Nets are stuck at 15-59. In terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, the Nets are ranked 30th in offense and 26th in defense, while the Wolves are ranked 29th and 28th respectively.
Brook Lopez’s March Madness
Mar 26, 2010 Analysis, Brook Lopez
March has been a funny month for Brook Lopez. As the Nets most consistent starter all season, and the only key player to have suited up for every game, a late-season slump had to be expected for Lopez, especially since he’s averaging nearly 7 minutes more per game this season (37.0), compared to his rookie campaign (30.5).
Fresh on the heels of what might have been his best offensive month as a pro in February, where Lopez averaged 19.8 points on nearly 59 percent shooting, Lopez had been slipping, until very recently, in March, averaging 18 points on 46 percent shooting. He’s had some statistical aberrations, including a game against Miami on Monday where he scored 26 points, but only shockingly grabbed one rebound. He’s also had a string of rough shooting games for perhaps the first time this season from March 8-12, where he combined for 14-40 (35 percent) on the road against Memphis, Dallas and Oklahoma City. He’s been notably relying on his 15-18 foot jumper again. In what might have been his worst performance of the month, a 2-9 game on March 17 against Philadelphia on the road, Lopez only converted one shot in the paint. Even his strong overall performance in Wednesday’s win against Sacramento, he took seven of his 21 shots from the outside, a percentage that’s just way too high for a center whose bread and butter is in the post.
So what’s the problem with Brook Lopez? He’s obviously been the focal point for opposing teams to defend all season, so it goes beyond the fact that Lopez is drawing more double-teams now than ever before. As I alluded to before, this may simply be a case of the long season finally catching up to Brook. In 71 games played this season, Lopez has already surpassed his total minutes of last season (2501) by more than 100 minutes (2626). Before the season began, in his scouting report, John Hollinger criticized Brook’s lack of minutes last season under Lawrence Frank:
The other surprise was how easily he stayed on the floor, as his foul rate of 4.11 per 40 minutes was among the lowest at his position. Even so, he played only 30.5 minutes per game for reasons that aren’t entirely clear to me. Since so many folks still worship at the altar of per-game averages, those missing minutes probably helped cost him the Rookie of the Year trophy.
But, just maybe, Lawrence Frank was on to something last season in being judicious with Brook’s minutes. If you look at other quality young centers in their sophomore years, you’ll notice that Brook’s jump in minutes this season is a bit of an abnormality. Dwight Howard increased from 32.6 to 36.8 (4.2) in his second year, Yao Ming went from 29.0 to 32.8 (3.8) and Marc Gasol, a contemporary of Brook’s, jumped from 30.7 to 35.9 (5.2). Most of Brook’s minutes are attributed to the lack of frontcourt depth on the Nets roster, and considering the team is playing to avoid having the worst record in NBA history, these minutes should be considered meaningful for Brook. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if between now and the end of the season he puts up a few more clunkers do to fatigue. Let’s just hope they don’t come during winnable games like last week’s blowout loss to the terrible Sixers.
CDR Can Still Be Effective When He is Aggressive
Mar 22, 2010 Analysis, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Opinion
This post is a little late considering that it is from the Sixers game last Wednesday, but I still think that this is something we need to look at. This game Chris Douglas-Roberts had one of his “old games.” What I mean by this is that he was being efficient, attacking the basket, and getting himself to the foul line.
Before we get to the post, yes I know CDR finally got minutes and yes Devin Harris and Yi were out, but that isn’t why he was so successful against the Sixers. In my opinion, there is only one reason why CDR was so productive was that he was aggressive.
Even without the basketball, Chris Douglas-Roberts looked different. The past 30 or 40 games, CDR was kind of just standing in the corner, not really looking for the ball. Here, CDR just looks different. He is looking for an opportunity to cut, and as soon as he gets the ball he knows what to do with it. He quickly swings it to Hayes who knocks down the jumper.
Is This The Real Kris Humphries?
Mar 18, 2010 Analysis, Kris Humphries, Opinion
When the Nets traded for Kris Humphries in exchange for Eduardo Najera, I was pretty excited. Not only were the Nets able to get rid of Najera (who looked like he was running with a torn hamstring), but they brought in a young guy who showed flashes. Early on, it looked like the Nets got away with highway robbery as Humphries brought his defensive energy and that was a new attitude for this team. He was also scoring, in his first 9 games as a Net, Humphries reached double-digits 4 times (including two 20 point games), and got 9 two other times. Sure he was taking some tough jumpers, but he made them so it was ok. He’d settle down when he wasn’t as hot (shot 45.1% in January).
I was really high on Humphries, I was starting to think that the only reason he didn’t produce in his previous spots was just because he played behind really good players (Bosh in Toronto, Boozer in Utah, and Dirk in Dallas). However, Humphries has hit a rough patch over the past two months. He is still bringing the defensive intensity, there is no question about that. The offensive end has been a completely different story though. Remember those tough shots Humphries was making early on? Well, he’s still taking them, but not making them at the rate he was (45.1% in January – 39.4% since – keep in mind his minutes has bascially been the same during his stay here), and when he makes the catch on the high post, you can pretty much assume he is going up with it. No matter how well defended he is.
The question Nets fans and the Nets front office has to ask now is whether or not this is the real Kris Humphries or not, or was the real Kris Humphries the one we saw in January. Personally, I think the Humphries we have seen the past two months is the “true Kris Humphries.” The reason is Idon’t think he can maintain the shooting percentage to be an effective scorer in this league. He takes too many bad shots, and takes the offense out of his flow too much. He hasn’t only done this in New Jersey, this has been his knock every stop he has been at.
That’s not saying he isn’t a serviceable player, because I think he is one, but what I am concerned about is whether there is a spot for him on this team. Better yet, what is his role? One of the Nets’ biggest needs is power forward. I think Yi has proven he can’t handle the starting responsibilities, so the Nets will be bringing a starting power forward (that is pretty much assumed), but who is going to be the backup? In my opinion, Kris Humphries is the more valuable backup if you bring in an offensive minded PF to start, but are the Nets really going to stick Yi on the bench for good (Orlando showed that having 3 PFs on your roster doesn’t work – Brandon Bass hasn’t played much all year)? I guess what I am getting to is don’t expect to see much of Kris Humphries next year unless Yi goes down with an injury. Now, some of you guys may have already assumed that, but I have to admit, I got a little excited seeing a guy play with that type of intensity on the defensive end and being productive on the offensive end.
Mr. Versatility: Terrence Williams
Mar 16, 2010 Analysis, Terrence Williams
Before he was drafted last June, the one word that always seemed to be associated with Terrence Williams was “versatile.” He had the size and muscle to be an option at small forward, but his ball handling and passing ability made him an option to run the offense and create match-up problems as a point forward. To demonstrate his versatility, he had a double-double in his first professional game in October, and three more before the end of November. But his up and down shooting marred portions of his rookie season, and some off-the-court attitude issues cut into his playing time. So, while the following might sound like an obvious statement, let me preface it by saying that I’m ecstatic that TWill has gotten his act together to be in a position for me to be so obvious:
Terrence Williams does a lot of things really, really well.
For the month of March, Williams has averaged 14 points, 4.9 assists and 6.7 rebounds in about 30 minutes of playing time. It’s been a stunning turnaround for the rookie who some were saying early-on was bordering on becoming a bust. Instead, TWill has forced his way onto the court during critical end-of-game situations, primarily because he can do so many things to help his team win at three different positions.
Let’s start with some passing numbers. At the beginning of the season, I used to pick apart Williams for getting too “cute” with his passes, and underestimating the speed of the NBA game. In the past six weeks, TWill seems to be grasping this idea, and while he still makes mistakes, he’s also distributed some of the prettiest dimes I’ve ever seen from a player his size. When looking at how he stacks up against other SFs in the league (which is still his most natural position in my opinion), TWill’s 16.3 assist ratio is good for 6th at the position. Against other rookies, TWill’s ratio places him 10th, but he’s the only non-PG in the top 10, according to ESPN’s statistics.
As for his rebounding – which I think might be his strongest skill – TWill’s rebound rate of 11 is good for 9th at the SF position (and tied with LeBron James, who as I’m reminded often, is built like a linebacker). He is comfortably the best non PF/C rebounder on the Nets’ roster.
The one knock against TWill continues to be his shooting percentage, but he even has a strong suit there. While it’s still a relatively small sample, Williams as demonstrated a real penchant for the corner three, shooting 12-22 (55 percent) from that spot on the floor. As I’ve ranted on about in the past, the Nets were one of the most effective teams from the corner last year, and I think they would have gotten off to a better start if they had a healthy Jarvis Hayes to hit from the corner, along with a more confident Courtney Lee. As it stands, Williams may want to hide out in the corner a bit more on offense as well, but he may be too busy helping his team by running the offense and grabbing rebounds to focus on that statistic right now.