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Everyone Needs To Stop Thinking About The 1972-1973 Sixers

Dec 4, 2009 Advanced Statistics, Links, Positivity

For those who don’t know, the 72-73 Sixers are the team that currently holds the record for worst record in league history.

Lost among all the negative articles about the Nets and their record breaking loss is one from Basketball Prospectus’ Kevin Pelton.  It probably wasn’t talked about much because it actually takes a positive tone when talking about this year’s record breaking team.  Well, as positive as you can be when talking about an 0-18 team.

Pelton explains that the Nets record breaking start can be explained away, at least partially, by the injuries:

In New Jersey’s case, we can trace some of the difference between their projection and reality to the injuries. With players forced to take on larger role, their shooting percentages have inevitably suffered. Nonetheless, the magnitude of the difference suggests some Nets are simply performing worse than they will the rest of the season. Harris, for example, is certain to improve on his current 39.2 percent on accuracy on two-point shots, while Lee (36.6 percent on twos) has also struggled much more than expected, probably because he’s dealing with his groin injury.

Don’t underestimate what this means to New Jersey’s bottom line. Adding 117 points to the Nets’ total improves their point differential all the way to -4.8, which would be better than six other NBA teams.

The poor shooting has undermined the fact that Lawrence Frank had New Jersey playing good basketball before he was fired on Sunday. The Nets came into Wednesday’s game ranked 14th in the NBA in Defensive Rating (they then managed to waste one of their better offensive efforts of the season by allowing 49 points in the second quarter to the Mavericks). New Jersey is dead last on offense, and making dubious history in this regard as well. Including the game against Dallas, the Nets have been 12.5 percent worse than league average in terms of points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst offense since the ABA-NBA merger.

Say what you will about Devin being a shoot first point guard, but one thing is for sure, when he is on the court teams need to account for him, and that makes it much easier for the Nets’ lesser players to get easy looks.

With guys coming back from injuries, Pelton explains, the Nets offense should come back to expected levels.  The level that allowed SCHOENE, Basketball Prospectus’ projection system, provide mean prediction of 29.5 wins.

Besides giving an explanation for the streak, Pelton explains that one of the key things Pelton notes is that despite the start, the Nets have a good chance at getting their fair share of wins the rest of the way:

First, let’s try to establish what a streak like this really says about a team. Dean Oliver considered the issue in a chapter of his seminal Basketball on Paper devoted to winning and losing streaks. Oliver showed that a team with a 20-game losing streak at any point in an NBA season has a 19 percent shot of finishing the year with 21 wins or more. So while an 18-game streak is certainly a bad sign, it’s hardly proof the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers‘ 9-73 record is in grave jeopardy.

I actually have the book that Pelton talks about here, and I grabbed it from my desk, and reread the chapter he references.  The chart that Pelton talks about says that teams who have 20 game losing streaks has a 28% chance of finishing with 8-13 wins.  Which means that they Nets have a 72% chance of winning 13+ wins.

Dean Oliver is…well…the dean when it comes to using advanced statistics, but if that isn’t enough for you, lets look at the schedule moving forward, since it is, without question easier moving forward.  Looking back at my schedule breakdown, I had the Nets going 5-13 through their first 18 games.  Take into consideration that the Kings are much improved and that we caught the Pacers when they were rolling (I had projected both of those as wins), so that goes to 3 wins right there.  I still had this team going for 30 wins.  So far this season the Nets have already played Boston, Orlando twice, Dallas, LA, Denver, and Miami.  All real good teams.  Look at their next couple of games:

1. vs. Charlotte
2. @ New York
3. @ Chicago
4. vs. Golden State

You could say the Nets will come away with 3 wins in that stretch, and they take their record from 0-18 to 3-19.  It still isn’t good, but that should be enough to get them going to the point where they won’t be challenging for the record late.

This is a well thought out and well written article.  If you are a Nets’ fan on the edge of the cliff, you need to go out of your way to read it, it will help back you up off of it.

Raptors Republic Looks At Antoine Wright

Jul 29, 2009 Antoine Wright, Links, Sebastian Writing At Other Places

Remember Antoine Wright?  Well, he became a Raptor over the summer, and the guys over at Raptors Republic asked me to write a little something about him.  So I gladly did.  You can find what I wrote over there.   Also included in the post is a Mavericks’ take.

Oh and if you guys feel like it, head on over and leave your thoughts of Antoine in the comments.  Just no spammy stuff like “Wright Suxxx!!!111!!,” keep the comment quality high like they are over here.

More Brooklyn-Minded Investers On The Way?

Jul 24, 2009 Brooklyn, Bruce Ratner, Links, Nets In The Media

Dave D’Alessandro reported yesterday that Bruce Ratner, who is in all kinds of financial trouble, is looking people to invest in the Nets.  According to Dave:

Bruce Ratner’s gift for salesmanship is matched only by his determination, as over the past five years he has sold his vision of pro basketball in Brooklyn to countless politicians, sponsors, community groups, and even some economists.

Now the Nets’ owner is trying to sell off the most tangible asset he has — the team, or at least a sizable portion of it.

So far, nobody’s buying.

If you are planning on investing, there is only one catch, you must be behind the Brooklyn move.  Two potential investors have been mentioned by name.  They are Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, former NYMEX chairman Vinny Viola, and Terry Semel – the former Yahoo! CEO.

NetsDaily, who always does a great job following and explaining any news related to the Brooklyn moves, have profiles on the first two men.

Mikhail Prokhorov

AROUND THE INTER-NETS:Nets In NBA Hell, But For One Year Only

Jul 23, 2009 2009 Offseason, 2009-2010 Regular Season, 2010 Offseason, Links, Nets In The Media

Basketball Fiend is a solid NBA blog, and I read it daily.  So when I saw this post today, I knew that I had to link to it at some point.  I also find it funny that it came during the same day my post came out.  Here is a little info on Basketball Fiend’s Basketball Hell:

The concept of NBA Hell is something that I came up with last season, watching teams like the Knicks and the Sonics (now Thunder) slowly and painfully torture their fans like the intro to Wu Tang’s Method Man.

NBA Hell is basically the professional basketball version of Dante Alighieri’s The Divine Comedy, a guided tour through the nine circles of hell, each circle a little bit worse than the one before it.

The article was popular last year and I enjoyed writing it, so I figured why not bring it back?

Since this is the second edition, I tried to refine the concept as best I could, using more statistics (such as winning percentage, blowout losses – which I define as losses by more than 15 points, scoring margin, and average attendance) as well as other, more subjective factors (like ownership and the ability to win in the future) to pare the league down to the nine most unbearable teams in the league.

On to some of the stuff he said about the Nets.  Again the full thing is here:

The way I see it, 2009-10 is going to be a torturous season for the Nets.

After trading away its best offensive player (Vince Carter), failing to address a need at power forward, and adding Rafer Alston, one of the least-coachable players in the league, the Nets are going to have a hard time competing in 2009-10. It’s difficult to imagine them winning more than 25 games next year.

After that, things will look up.

The Nets may have traded away an offensive centerpiece in Carter, but the trade also freed up $30-35 million in cap room for the 2010 offseason.

and

All four of those guys are talented players with definitive skills. Harris and Lopez run a wicked high pick-and-roll, Lee is a talented outside shooter who can play solid D, and Williams is a defensive-minded athlete with the kind of physical skills coaches dream of.

I completely agree with this whole section, but I think if everything comes together correctly, the Nets can take 30-35 games this year.  In my opinion it all depends on Terrence Williams and CDR.  If they can contribute positively, I think we can avoid the flames of hell.

Reaction To Dave D’Alessandro’s Interview @ HoopsAddict.com

Jul 15, 2009 2009 Offseason, Analysis, Dave D'Alessandro, Links, Nets In The Media

Hoopsaddict.com is a great basketball blog, and it is a site that I make sure I read everyday.  So when I got an e-mail from the site telling me about an interview that they did with Dave D’Alessandro (Who was kind enough to answer a few questions for me), I hurried over to read it.  Dave talks Nets, NBA, what it is like to be a beat writer, and the state of newspapers so you definitely want to check it out.  I am pulling a few quotes from the interview that I wanted to comment on:

HA: What’s your thoughts on the direction the Nets are taking? Everyone heard the whispers of Carter being moved, and now he is finally no longer with the team. Did you think it was a smart trade for the team? Thoughts on the selection of Terrence Williams?
DD: It may not be a smart trade for the Nets, but it probably was the only move they had. It was obvious back in December that Vince’s departure was inevitable, and you had to get expiring contracts and a promising young talent in the deal. So with the aims being pretty narrow, mission accomplished. I don’t know much about Terrence’s game yet, but I like the kid personally, and I hope fans give him a chance to grow into his job. But I can already hear the moans when he goes 6-for-29 his first three games.

I know I am in the minority with this one, but I think that the Vince Carter trade was a smart one for the Nets and not just a salary dump.  Sure getting rid of Vince’s salary was an effect of the deal, but we got huge value with this deal, more than we would get in any trade we make next season before the trade deadline.  Now a lot of Nets fans are a little worried about Courtney Lee’s reactions to being traded, but can we blame him really?  He went from going to the finals to being on a team that will challenge for the number 1 pick.  That had to hit him hard, especially when he was such a big factor in the team’s playoff run.  Another critisim of the trade that I have been hearing is that if we really wanted Lee, why didn’t we just draft him?  Well, with Vince Carter in the mix, we didn’t need a player like Lee.  The trade of Carter opens the floor up for Lee’s style of play.  I know it sucks giving up Ryan Anderson, but I think it was worth it.

Also, I know that I for one won’t be moaning or groaning if Terrence starts the year going 6-29.  Why?  Well, he is young and this team isn’t going anywhere.  We just need him to develop and gain experience, he shooting will come around, and while it does, Terrence Williams will be able to contribute in other ways.

HA: On the topic of the Cavs, what’s your stance on 2010? Do the Nets have a shot at one of the big three (Wade, LeBron and Bosh)?
DD: Not likely. Guys at that level want to win now and win often, and all things being equal ($$$$), they’ll go where they can win.

Despite Dave’s opinions, I think the Nets have a big-time shot at one of the big three (if not two – or one of these guys and a guy like Dirk).  For one, we have the money…tons of money.  Two, I can’t think of a team that has a better younger core that will be in position to get one of these guys.  The Knicks?  No.  The Grizz?  No.  The Thunder?  Maybe.  But I don’t think (Key word here is think) they have the cap space.  Those are the young teams positioning themselves for one of the big three off of the top of my head.

Now with all this being said, I don’t want everyone to think I am bashing Dave.  He is the best Nets’ beat writer around, and I usually find myself agreeing with what he says.  We just have two differing opinions in this case, and I feel like I should state mine.  What do you guys think?  Leave your opinions in the comments!

NJ Nets’ Weekend Wrap-Up

May 19, 2009 2009 Draft, 2009 Offseason, Brooklyn, Front Office, Links, Prudential Center, Rod Thorn

There was actually a lot of Nets news this weekend, and I know I should have gotten to it earlier, but I was too busy shattering my ankle in 5 spots (OK, it is just a sprain, but it really really hurts :/).  Here is a quick little recap and some links about the news that happened over the weekend.

• First and foremost:  Rod Thorn will be representing the Nets at the draft lottery.  Who knows, maybe the man who drafted MJ will have some luck rub off on the Nets?
• The Atlantic Yards project took a step in the right direction.  Landowners and tenants were rebuffed by the state appellate court in a case that contested the use of eminent domain for the project.  This case was was against New York State and not Ratner, but it is still a big win.  The decision narrows the legal options for opponents of the project, who have successfully delayed it through the courts to a point where the entire project’s financial viability is now in question amid the broader economic crisis.
• The Nets first prospect list is in.  There are a lot of the big guys that I would like to see us drafted there, but there are way too many guards there for my liking.  I hope we aren’t considering a guard.
• Yi might get traded.  Well, the Nets are at least considering it.  In my opinion, this is too much of a knee-jerk reaction.  Yi was playing well before the pinky injury, and he needs some time to heal.  That being said, if he starts to struggle again, and we can move him for something valuble, I say why not.
• Boki is a free agent now.  He has previously mentioned his desire to rejoin  the Nets, s0 who knows what will happen.  I don’t really think he “fits” with the team the way it is currently assembled, but Boki is very talented, and adding a talented player to your roster isn’t a bad thing.  I guess what I am saying is that I wouldn’t understand the signing too much, but I wouldn’t be pissed about it.
• NJNets.com has started up their Draft Central.  There is a lot of interesting stuff in there.  My personal favorite is Gregg Polinsky’s blog.
• Bill Bradley and I are on the same page…at least on topic of where the Nets should play.  I have mentioned earlier that the Nets should be playing in Newark if they can’t get the Brooklyn situation straightened out.  Bradley takes it a step further.  He thinks that the Nets should be playing in Newark instead of Brooklyn.
• The Nets are looking at PGs (It is in the interview towards the middle).  This is baffling to me.  We already have an All-Star PG, so why draft a PG when you have such a glaring whole at the PF spot?  Who knows.  After tonight we will know where we stand in terms of Draft Order, and hopefully we will get a better idea of who we are drafting.

Tonight, I will be live-blogging the Draft Lottery via Cover It Live.  It will start around the same time of the game tomorrow, so if you want to chat about the game, or more importantly the lottery, just make your way over.

Looking At Yi And Bobby

May 8, 2009 Bobby Simmons, Links, Nets In The Media, Yi

Ben Couch, the great blogger/reporter for NJNets.com put out two great articles out, one about Yi and one about Bobby Simmons.  In each, there are some interesting quotes.

Couch’s Yi article talks about how Yi was about to break out before the injury:

In the middle of January, Nets forward Yi Jianlian shot his way into a hot streak, launching 38 shots in three games despite connecting on only 13 of them, finally breaking through on January 5 with and 8-of-14 shooting performance, part of a 22-point, 13-rebound, three-assist, two-block final line against the Sacramento Kings.

And he followed it up two days later, dropping 20 points (7-13 FGs), six boards, three assists, two steals and a block on the Memphis Grizzlies. The outburst marked the first time in Yi’s two-year career that he had scored 20-or-more points in consecutive games.

Two days after that, Yi was at it again: 25 minutes into the Nets’ matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, the big had tallied 16 points, four rebounds and two assists while shooting 3-of-4 from three-point range and 6-of-12 overall. But late in the third quarter, Yi swiped at a ball on defense and broke the pinkie finger on his (right) shooting hand.

Couch then goes on to talk about what the offseason looks like for Yi.  I encourage you to go on and read it.

In the Bobby Simmons article, Ben Couch talks about how Simmons developed into a terrific three point shooter (5th best percentage in the NBA).   Included is this quote:

“I never thought of that (being possible), I never knew my role was exactly going to be ‘shoot three-pointers.’ As far as looking at it now, you want to be the best at what you do, and if it was making shots for our team and our ballclub to win games, that’s what I wanted to do.”

That last part of the quote excites me.  He is still comitted to helping the Nets win, even though his playing time has been inconsistant.  Many people (including myself) have considered the biggest thing Simmons does for the Nets is that he is an expiring contract.  I am looking forward to seeing Bobby prove me wrong.

Brook Lopez: Rookie Retrospective

May 2, 2009 Analysis, Brook Lopez, Links, Rookies

I already took a look at Brook’s rookie season, but the guys over at DraftExpress seriously one-upped me.  They take an in-depth look into Brook’s rookie season.  You can read the whole thing here, but here is a brief excerpt:

According to Synergy Sports Technology, Lopez gets 34% of his offense with his back to the basket in the post, but only converts on 42% of those attempts. On all other shots, he’s converting 57%. As many often point out, the biggest change in the level of competition when comparing the NCAA and NBA often has to do with the big men, who are far bigger, stronger and more athletic. As we often saw already last season, Lopez struggles to score at times because of a lack of variety and fluidity in his post repertoire. He loves to go to his right handed hook, but struggles with his consistency and is rather predictable due to the lack of polish on his left hand. The slow and mechanical coordination he shows in the post hurt his effectiveness as well, and he has a tendency to predetermine what move he’s going to use before he even touches the ball. 

Never considered much of a passer in college, Lopez has continued along that same path in theNBA thus far, even regressing statistically in that aspect. He’s been fairly turnover prone, struggling to deal with double teams and not always quite knowing his limitations, which is not exactly a shock considering his rookie status. Right now he ranks in the top 10 amongst the worst passers per-possession in the NBA.

Many of the problems Lopez has on the offensive end stem from a lack of explosiveness caused by his high center of gravity. Despite the fact that he gets low to maintain position on the block, when he goes into his move he stands too upright, which makes him easy to defend. This is perhaps most evident when looking at how few free throws he attempts a game. Lopez’s paltry 2.2 free throws a game ranks him towards the bottom amongst starting centers in the league. For a big man who shoots over 80% from the stripe, he would benefit greatly from getting to the line more often. If he can learn to stay low throughout his pivots and establish a wider base, he’ll have an easier time powering towards the basket, which ultimately will lead to more trips to the line. 

Lopez also shows some glimpses of potential facing up from the mid-post and beating his man off the dribble—something he surely has the skill-level to do. If he can improve his ball-handling skills enough to utilize this part of his game more, maybe after using a shot-fake, he will surely find himself at the free throw line more as well. 

The biggest thing that I took from this excerpt is the fact that he needs to work on his back to the basket offense.  These kind of moves come with time and experience, so we shouldn’t be too worried about it right now.

Hardwood Paroxysm’s Polite Request

Apr 27, 2009 Links

I don’t usually talk about non-Nets stuff here, but this is about NBA-team blogs, so it is sorta related.  The great (and I seriously mean GREAT!) NBA blog Hardwood Paroxysm just put up a request to team blogs.  I am going to repost a quick blurb, but you seriously need to check it out:

Immediately preface with “I’m not saying we lost because of the officiating.’ Proceed to blame the officiating almost entirely with the loss. Specifically point out how frustrating it is that your team GOT HIT and FELL DOWN and yet there was no call. Mention how you accept it’s a physical game, then proceed to rail against any facet of physical play by the other team. Conversely, be sure to mention how the refs should let your team be more physical on defense. Blame the NBA’s conspiracy for certain teams to concede.

In my recaps I try to stay true to what HP (Can I call you HP?) mentions, but I know I have blamed the refs for some losses in the past (or at least part of losses, everyone who watches the Nets can agree that most of the losses are their own faults), and I am going to work on improving on this so I can bring the Nets fans who read this blog a better quality blog.  I just wanted to post this and pass it along to the readers because I think this is a message that needs to get out.