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Two Man Game – Mavs Moneyball - Hoopdata Box Scores

After last night, I refuse to believe the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets are the worst team in NBA history. Their final record may very well suggest otherwise and the schedule-makers certainly haven’t done them any favors as 12 of their final 17 games are against teams in the thick of their respective playoff races. But the Nets should be better than a 7-win team right now. Forget should. The Nets are better than a 7-win team right now.

If you want physical proof of why I believe this, look no further than the first quarter between the Nets and Dallas Mavericks last night. Yeah, you could say that the Mavs were caught napping and were taking the Nets lightly, and went on to eventually take care of business in their 96-87 victory, but the worst team in basketball history doesn’t come out on the road against a team that has just won 12 straight games, and knock them silly en route to a 33-19 first quarter. The Mavs missed some open shots in the period, but the Nets also took it to them, by being aggressive in the pain. During a two minute stretch where the Nets grew their lead from 9-1 to 17-3, Jersey made five consecutive field goals off layups and dunks.

Granted, NBA games are 48 minutes long, and no championship has ever been crowned after just one quarter of play. In the second and third quarters, the Mavericks demonstrated why their currently the second-best team in the Western Conference (pushing the draft pick of theirs we own, further back in the first round). Dallas tightened their interior D, took Brook Lopez completely out of the game (all 10 of his points were in the first quarter), and they methodically picked the Nets apart over the game’s next 24 minutes, culminating with an atrocious third quarter where the Nets shot 19 percent and were outscored 31-15. Brook Lopez epitomized the Nets frustration, when on the final play of the quarter, who caught a pass on a pick-and-roll and proceeded to get stuffed by the rim and turning the ball over. He then, stupidly, grabbed Erick Dampier to pick up his fifth foul, taking Lopez out of the game until there was about two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Lopez was so bad after the first quarter, it was the first time I believe this season where I wasn’t screaming at the television for the Nets to feed him the ball more down the stretch.

But even with the second and third quarter performance, the Nets showed me something tonight. Earlier in this season, when I honestly though the Nets were the worst team in NBA history (think back to those back-to-back road thrashings by Golden State and Utah and tell me you’d disagree), the Nets would have turned off the switch for good after that third quarter, maybe make a small run with about 5-6 minutes left to cut the Dallas lead to single-digits, before totally disappearing into the night and losing by 15 or 20 points. But the Nets hung in there, starting with Jarvis Hayes, who drilled a long two and two threes to open up the scoring for the Nets. Terrence Williams (18 points, 13 rebounds) came up huge, early and late in the fourth, as the Nets closed with two points. t the 6:20 mark in the fourth, TWill outleaped Shawn Marion to grab an offensive rebound. A few minutes later, a layup where Williams dribbled behind his back to get into the paint, cut the Dallas lead to 90-87.

The Nets were even playing better defense. Kris Humphries and Josh Boone both played a solid game defensive on Dirk Nowitzki, who had so many of his shots challenged early, that even when he started getting open looks down the stretch, he missed, en route to a 3-16 night. But two plays stand out to me for the Nets defensively. At the 5:16 mark and Caron Butler looking to take over for Dallas, Butler was trying to back down TWill in the post. After making a spin move to get around him, he was met by Kris Humprhies who disrupted the shot, causing Butler to miss the layup. About two minutes later, Jarvis Hayes was actually playing suffocating man defense on Dirk, who was trying to get space for his historically automatic elbow jumper. As Jarvis kept his body on Dirk, not allowing him his customary push off for the jumper, Courtney Lee blindsided Nowitzki and stole the ball, leading to a fast break. But a three pointer by old friend Jason Kidd, his fifth of the game, put Dallas up by 5, where they never looked back.

So you tell me: can the worst team in basketball honestly be expected to accomplish all this in a given night? After being legitimately angry with this team and organization for the better part of the last four months, I can honestly say I now sympathize with these guys. Between the young talent of guys like Lopez, Harris, Williams and Lee, and some veteran good-guys like Keyon Dooling, Hayes and Hassell, these Nets need to find a way to get out of this discussion as being among the worst ever, because they just don’t belong there.

A few more thoughts after the jump:

• It took me nearly two years to realize this, but Jason Kidd is absolutely perfect in Dallas. It helps that after all these years he’s perfected his three-point jump shot to the point where he’s now absurdly efficient beyond the arc. But in addition, Kidd just meshes in so well when he’s surrounded by all-star talent. He no longer has the speed, but he still has the vision, and nobody leads a fast break better. And when a guy like Dirk is having a bad night, Kidd still has options like Caron Butler or Shawn Marion. While the Kidd-Harris trade was absolutely necessary for the Nets to make because Kidd would have been a malcontent if he stayed, his performance this season goes to show why you can’t judge transactions like that until they’ve had a few years to maturate. Right now, I say the trade is fair draw.
• Just a little comparison here: Trenton Hassell, two points on 1-3 shooting, Jarvis Hayes with 11 points on 4-10 shooting, and Terrence Williams, 18 points on 7-12 shooting. And who’s the starting SF on this team right now?
• Though speaking of Jarvis, I do have to think he’s still being hobbled by something. He came out in the fourth quarter shooting about as well as I’ve seen him shoot this season, but as the quarter wore on and he kept logging minutes, you could see his legs starting to go. His last few jumpers looked like he was hardly putting his lower body into the shot, and he came up short as a result.
• I love Brook Lopez but he really needs to grow up sometimes. That foul on Dampier at the end of the third, was totally inexcusable and rightly earned him a spot on the bench for most of the fourth.
• If I see Josh Boone catch a dribble one more pass right under the basket, I’m going to jump through my television screen, dunk the ball for him, then whack with a sock full of quarters.
• I know he’s a flawed player, but why would the Mavericks give up Kris Humphries for Eduardo Najera of all players?
• At one point in the fourth, the Nets benched outscored their starters 19-0, which goes to show, there is a fourth scoring option on this team, but when options #2 and #3 put up a quiet 10 points each, the reserves effort is negated.
• Ian Eagle calling the first quarter is just classic. One thing I’m really going to miss about this miserable season is Ian Eagle’s sardonic sense of humor.

• The Nets were shooting close to 53 percent at halftime and held on to an 8-point lead against a Dallas team that had won 12 in a row entering tonight. But 19 percent shooting in the third, where they were outscored by the Mavericks 31-15, put New Jersey in a deep hole entering the fourth that they could never climb out of, despite getting as close as two points down the home stretch.
• Terrence Williams keeps topping himself in the month of March, putting together another career game with 18 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal and a blocked shot.
• Devin Harris had a solid night offensively against his old team with 21 points and 7 assists on 7-14 shooting, but turned the ball over 6 times.
• Kris Humphries had 13 points and 8 rebounds off the bench, while playing some solid defense against former teammate Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk had a particularly awful night, finishing with 12 points on 3-16 shooting.
• Jason Kidd finished with 20 points and 9 assists, and was 5-8 from three-point land.
• Brook Lopez and Courtney Lee each had a quiet night, finishing with 10 points each. Lopez picked up his 5th foul at the end of the third, and wasn’t seen again until about 2 minutes left in the game.

Now moving forward to tonight, the Nets are going to have to play a perfect to get a win tonight.  They can’t do the little things wrong like take the foul-to-give early or going for steals that trigger fast breaks for the opponents.  Onto the lineups…

Devin Harris vs. Jason Kidd

Last year Devin Harris got the best of Jason Kidd (and the Mavs), so it looked like the Nets won the trade.  This year the Nets are awful and the Mavs are good (and there was that blowout game in New Jersey) and now the Mavs are thought to have won the deal.  My opinion?  We still don’t know who we are getting with the Mavs pick, so the deal is incomplete and since it was a longterm deal for the Nets, it is way too early to judge.

Advantage:  Jason Kidd

Courtney Lee vs. Caron Butler

Courtney Lee has been playing out of this world as of late, and while I don’t think he will average 30 points a game for the rest of his career, he is starting to show what Rod Thorn saw in him that he was willing to give up Ryan Anderson  for him.  Combine his scoring now with the ability to play lock down defense, and you have a solid starter and a solid piece moving forward.

Advantage:  Caron Butler

Trenton Hassell vs. Shawn Marion

Trenton Hassell is probably going to start again, but we probably will be seeing a ton of Terrence Williams tonight, because I don’t think Hassell will be able to hang with Marion’s athleticism (even though that has declined through the years).

Advantage:  Shawn Marion

Josh Boone vs. Dirk

Josh Boone might start (he did have a solid game against the Grizzlies), but I don’t think he is going to successfully be able to hang with Dirk, which means you might see a lot of Kris Humphries.  While Humphries has struggled on the offensive end as of late, he still continues to work on the offensive end.  It is going to be fun to watch Dirk and Humphries go at it, and Humphries might be able to use his experience in Dallas to his advantage.

Advantage:  Dirk

Brook Lopez vs. Brendan Haywood

When I saw Brendan Haywood got traded to the Western Conference, I was happy because this means Brook Lopez gets to face him less than when he was in the East.  Brendan Haywood had the two best defensive performances against Brook (in my opinion), and he might have another tough night if his teammates don’t make shots.

Advantage:  Push

• So about that second quarter – the Mavericks scored 49 points on 17-19 shooting. That’s not a typo. It wasn’t like the Mavs were hitting a bunch of lucky shots either. These were wide open jumpers and layups. I guess, the Nets decided to take a quarter off on defense. Too bad, because they were actually able to hang with the Mavs every other quarter tonight.
• For the first half, the Mavs shot 80.6 percent.
• The Nets actually looked somewhat competent on offense tonight, breaking 100 points, and shooting 44 percent from the field – which isn’t really that good, but by Nets standards, those nets were almost scorching tonight.
• Jason Kidd tortured his old team with a typical 16 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds. Just another day at the office for JKidd.
• Chris Douglas-Roberts led all Nets scorers with 24 points on 10-21 shooting, though he also turned the ball over 5 times.
• As Sebastian predicted, Erik Dampier had a solid game with 18 points and 11 rebounds.  Brook Lopez meanwhile had 16 points on 2-6 shooting from the field.
• Courtney Lee chipped in with 13 points off the bench, but did it on 5-17 shooting, including 2-7 from three-point land.
• Bobby Simmons had his stroke going for one night, with 10 points, on 4-7 shooting, including 2-2 from three.
• The sparse Izod Center crowd loudly booed the Nets as the final seconds ticked off. I just don’t know how I feel about that.
• Kiki Vandeweghe: this is your mess now.

NAS: I need to start you off with a non-Mavs question first giving the historical nature of tonight’s match-up. With one more loss, the Nets will own the worst start to a season in NBA history. As a fan of the incoming team, do you sympathize with the Nets at all, or do you want to see the Mavs be the ones responsible for the record breaking loss?

I’m sympathetic. I don’t really care if the Mavs beat the Nets, but I do care if the Mavs lose to the Nets…if that makes any sense at all.

If Dallas wins, it’s not as if they chisel there names into the NBA record books. The Nets will be a team of historic misery, but the Mavs really have nothing to gain aside from being the team the struck last. That’s not a distinguished honor, and for all its importance this week, it’ll be forgotten in a matter of seasons, if not months or weeks. No team and no fan base should have to go through what the Nets and their followers are going through right now. That’s as plain as the look on CDR’s face, and as a fan of the game (which I consider myself first and foremost) and a fan of plenty of Nets’ players, I can’t in good conscience say that I like watching Jersey suffer. The sooner this streak is over and behind us, the better.

That said, the Mavs will have some explaining to do if they manage to lose to a team with zero wins. The Mavs have begun to show some defensive vulnerability amidst a string of injuries (Shawn Marion, Erick Dampier, Josh Howard, Quinton Ross), and losing to the Nets would pour acid directly into the wound opened last week against the Warriors. So while it doesn’t make a bit of difference to me whether or not the Mavs are the straw that breaks New Jersey’s back, I’d like to think this Dallas team is good enough to not have to worry about such things.

Oddly enough, probably not. In the NBA, there are few things more reliable than Dirk’s jumper. You could set your watch by it, tune a piano to it, and even play tapes of it for your sleeping baby to vastly improve their basketball IQ. Yet this season, Dirk’s shot has been a bit off. Dirk’s shooting in the last few games has been closer to his usual hyper-efficient ways, but his eFG% for the season is still the lowest since his rookie year. Just about every other aspect of Dirk’s game is finely tuned at this point, but until his shooting upgrades from “just really good” to “Dirktastic,” I’m inclined to say that he’s seen better stretches. The shot will come back, and when it does, I’ll be more than willing to revisit this question.

Jason Kidd has looked strong this season. He’s really developing a solid chemistry with newcomers Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, and once the Mavs are good and healthy, Kidd’s talents will be even more apparent.

I’m sure Nets fans are well aware of this, but it’s almost uncanny how Kidd can contribute in such overt ways (lobs, full court bounce passes, jumping the passing lanes for a steal) and yet have so much of his value go unnoticed. It’s the kind of things you only notice after watching him game after game. Not only does Kidd find Dirk in his favorite spots on the floor (face up at the top of the key, or posting up on the wing), but he places the pass perfectly as to not compromise Dirk’s positioning. Not only does Kidd create turnovers at a high rate, but his defense in the post is superb. For Kidd, the game isn’t measured in points and assists, but creating and maintaining the offense with a carpenter’s precision, and defending with a philosophy that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. He may not have the same lateral speed, but Jason Kidd is still Jason Kidd.

It’s easy to turn back the clock to that franchise-altering (for both the Mavs and the Nets) trade, but coming up with a concrete answer is a bit more difficult. Devin Harris is an undeniable talent, but who’s to say that his set of skills are better for these Mavs than Kidd’s are? And really, the team would be drastically different: Rodrigue Beaubois probably wouldn’t be a Mav, Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, Tim Thomas, Kris Humphries, and Quinton Ross could be elsewhere, or maybe the entire roster would have been shaken up by now. There’s been a coaching change for both squads, and a million shifts between then and now. I appreciate what Devin brings to the table just as I appreciate what Jason does, and although the Mavs have yet to bring home a championship (which was the expressed intent of the trade), I don’t think the trade was necessarily a mistake. I was against the move at the time, but the way Kidd runs an offense must have a calming effect.

Also, it’s worth noting that if the Mavs had found more success with Devin Harris at the point, Avery Johnson would probably still be the head coach. Johnson’s style was radically different from that of Lawrence Frank, and even though the Mavs would still have a young, talented point guard, Devin would essentially be shackled as long as he was a part of Avery’s system. That’s pretty much the paradox of Devin Harris’ time in Dallas, and personally I think it’s unlikely that he would ever match his current scoring success had he stayed with the Mavs.

So in short, no, I don’t think bringing Kidd back was a mistake. But about those two first round picks included in the deal…

I’m a bit surprised at how quickly the Mavs have beefed up their defense, but the overall effectiveness of this team isn’t all that surprising to me. Shawn Marion was the headline grabber in the offseason, and he’s been a crucial part of the Mavs’ new defensive schemes. Drew Gooden has been a great addition to the Mavs’ center rotation, and though he lacks the burl and defensive ability of Erick Dampier, he’s a difference make on the glass and the scoreboard. Rookie Rodrigue Beaubois has given the Mavs a sorely needed boost in the absence of Josh Howard. Plus, the contributions of Quinton Ross, Kris Humphries, and Tim Thomas (yeah, that Tim Thomas) have been notable. That’s a bonafide group of role players that grant Rick Carlisle all kinds of rotation options. Once everyone is healthy, this Mavs team will be scary versatile with its ability to manipulate match-ups to negate and exploit their opponents.

But take a look at those new additions. That’s a lot of moving parts for Rick Carlisle to incorporate, and aside from a hiccup in the season opener against the Wizards, this has looked like the beginnings of a legitimate contender. The Mavs still have plenty to improve on during the season, but Mavs fans have to be impressed with this team’s defense, adaptable offense, and sheer ability to close games.

It’s worth noting that even though no one had Dallas atop the Western Conference or even the Southwest Division, I did see them getting plenty of love as a trendy “sleeper”/”dark horse” pick. That’s not a bad place to be, and if the Lakers want to soak up all the glitz and glam while the Mavs go to work under cover of media nightfall, that’s just fine by me.