Nets Are Scorching

Minutes after I got off the phone with the fine people of The Basketball Jones, doing their live mock draft (you can see the replay here), and talking about how the Nets are probably going to go big, news broke saying that might not be the case.  Draft Express, Chad Ford, and Adrian Wojnarowski all are reporting that the Nets are leaning towards Wesley Johnson for the number three pick, meaning that the Nets are going after a PF hard in free agency.  From Wojnarowski’s post:

All along, the Wolves had planned to select Johnson at No. 4, and yet the New Jersey Nets are holding serious discussions about drafting the small forward and taking their chances with trying to sign a power forward in free agency. The Nets had long favored Derrick Favors, but are debating now about how long it will take for him to become a regular contributor. New Jersey is still contemplating DeMarcus Cousins, too.

Ugh.  This strategy is good in theory, you don’t want to draft a PF if you are going to sign a youungish one to a max contract (Amar’e or Bosh), that is a waste of a pick.  Plus it isn’t like Johnson is a bad player (in fact he is very good). However, this could blow up in their face and ruin all the good will they built up with Nets fans after their awful season last year.

I am worried about it for two reasons.  One, if we don’t draft a PF and somehow whiff in free agency, we are going to see the Nets either give a max deal to a guy like Carlos Boozer or David Lee (trust me that’s bad) or the Nets are going to be stuck with Yi starting at PF for another year.

The second reason is my main worry, and that is the overcrowding at the wing position.  For a guy like LeBron, you don’t worry about overcrowding, but to draft a wing when you already have Courtney Lee, CDR, and Terrence Williams on the roster?  That just doesn’t make sense.  My fear is that the Nets’ new staff sees Terrence Williams as a back-up point guard instead of what he actually is.  A starting small forward with the skill-set to be a point forward type of player.  In my opinion, those are two different things.

A few hours ago, I was fairly confident the Nets were going with Favors, now?  Who the hell knows.  After the Vince Carter trade at draft night, I didn’t think that the Nets could match it this year in terms of surprises.  Apparently, they are well on their way.  Thursday is going to be interesting.

Just spoke with 2 sources & looks like Turner is lock at 2, & Wes Johnson now has lead at 3 in NJ.

Via Chad Ford

Wesley Johnson is moving up to 3, New Jersey, on our next mock coming shortly. Told New Jersey will take him and go for a PF in free agency. …
Wes is the most ready guy and New Jersey wants to be competitive next year.

via DraftExpress

All I can think is that this has to be a red herring. Forgive me for saying this, but Wesley Johnson should absolutely not be the #3 pick in this draft. He is a fine player and will continue to be at the next level, but he doesn’t 10% of Favors’s upside and is about as NBA-ready (if not less so) at 22 as Cousins is at 19. This entire year, I’ve said that I was content with having a guaranteed top-4 pick in this draft because it had a sure set of four top prospects: John Wall, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors. I was of course upset that we lost out on the John Wall sweepstakes, but we at least would have a decent consolation prize between the other three. Wesley Johnson was the consensus 5th best player – better than everyone else (except maybe Monroe, who has been climbing) but not as good as the top four. The fact that the Timberwolves were considering him at #4 even was surprising to me, although their logjam at the 4/5 spots made it more plausible.

Now, two days before the draft, Nets sources are reporting that they’re skipping out on that top four entirely. This has to be a smokescreen. I’m hoping this is a smokescreen. As I said earlier, Wesley Johnson is a good player, and will be a good player at the next level. But I don’t just want “good” with the third overall pick. If Wesley Johnson gets his name called third, I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ll sure be praying that it’s for another team.

As the New Jersey Nets look to rebuild themselves from their disastrous 12-win season, a lot of to-do has been made about the fact that in addition to their lottery pick, the Nets also have a second first rounder, and the first pick in the second round, which some consider has the potential to be “as good as a first rounder.”

Or is it?

Obviously, draft picks are a good thing for a rebuilding team, and almost every single draft has a few gems or solid rotations players in the second round – but history has shown that there’s generally something off about the player picked with the first pick in the second round.  Since the draft lottery era, the pick has only yielded one player who’s appeared in an all-star game, while producing far more players who have only played in one or two NBA seasons. In many cases, the pick has yielded players who have never played a single NBA minute. So when looking at mock drafts and imagining how that 31^st pick might look in the rotation next season, keep your expectations low Nets fans.

Read more…

OK everyone, this Favors vs. Cousins debate has kind of turned the comments into mush.  So before we get to the draft, I just wanted to remind everyone to take another look at the commenting constitution.  Specifically the section about  being “that guy”

5.  Don’t be what Dave from the Blazers’ Edge calls THAT GUY.  Allow him to explain:

* He posts something and then responds to every…single…comment with an overly-defensive comment of his own, not letting people have real conversation about his points.  It’s fine for people to disagree.  In fact debate makes the best conversations.  If you don’t want anybody to disagree with what you’ve written, go to Hallmark, buy a journal, and write your thoughts there.  If you write them here, give people some space to reply with good, solid points of their own.

* He talks about the person posting instead of the post and its points/ideas.  This is completely unnecessary.  Hint:  Limit the use of the word “you” in your posts.  “You’re an idiot if you think LeBron will be traded.  Cleveland values him too much…” should be just “Cleveland values LeBron too much to trade him.”

* He begins posts with phrases like, “If you had actually watched the game…” or “If you knew anything about basketball…”  These are inflammatory and again unnecessary.  It’s possible that people actually did watch the game and simply saw something different than you did.

* He makes comparisons between basketball matters and things FAR beyond their scope, things in such poor taste that the mere mention of them obliterates any valid basketball-related conversation.  (“The refs were the Nazis and we were the Jews tonight!”)

We all love the Nets and we all love discussing ways we think they will become better.  Realize that you probably aren’t going to change anyone’s minds about something no matter how passionate you are (think about someone trying to change your stance on a topic).  Let’s keep the comments fun to read/participate in.

As always, Dave D’Alessandro has the skinny:

Here’s all you need to know about Cousins: He flubbed a shooting drill – just didn’t have it the first time through. Brick, reload, brick, snort, brick, angst. So after his turn was over, he asked to do it again – and he knocked down a very respectable percentage from a few steps above the nail.

The problem: He’s undoubtedly a five – say, the kind that Philly should seriously consider building around, but probably won’t. He’s lost some weight – down to 292 – but his size and skills say center, period.

…

That report from Minneapolis about Favors being out of shape? It was a feint, obviously. At least the Nets think so: Their internal dialogue in the last few days was about how Minnesota has already told the kid he’s their choice at No. 4, so the Wolves want to see him drop.

“I didn’t think so,” was all Polinsky would say when asked if the Georgia Tech kid was out of shape.

There is a ton more very good info over at Dave D’s post, but the gist of it is that Derrick Favors didn’t shy away from the contact.  That is what I thought they would be looking at, and I think now that they see he won’t be afraid to bang inside, he is going to be the pick.

Also of note is that the Nets scouts think that Cousins will be better suited to play the center position in the pros.  Since the Nets already have an All-Star caliber center on their roster it won’t make sense to draft them.  I agree.  There is no question that DeMarcus Cousins is going to be a solid pro, but I have said this over and over, it is about who the better fit with the roster is.  That better fit is Derrick Favors.

• With the first pick, the Wizards selected John Wall
• With the second pick, the Sixers selected Evan Turner

And now, with the third pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Nets select Derrick Favors, Power Forward out of Georgia Tech:

With John Wall and Evan Turner off the board, it is up to the Nets to select between the best Power Forwards available, Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins.  I think the Nets think tank are going to select Derrick Favors.  I already did a pretty extensive post on it, but here are a few excerpts:

This way, when Brook is on the outside with the basketball his big-man alongside of him can work in the post, and vice-versa.  Despite being very raw, when watching the tape, you can tell that Derrick Favors has this skill-set, and this is why I want to see the Nets draft Favors with the third overall pick.

…

If you were to think of one word that has been associated with Derrick Favors so far, that word would be “raw.”  That is all you hear from some scouts and draft experts.  While he might be raw when it comes to basketball skills (his shooting ability for example), there are two things that catch your eye when you watch Favors play.

The first is his work ethic on the basketball court.  Georgia Tech’s offense was very helter skelter during this past season, and that is putting it nicely.  There would be series of five to ten straight possessions where Derrick Favors wouldn’t even get a touch.  Despite all of that, every time down the court, Favors would get to his spot on the court and post up, just as hard and strong as the last time (even though he didn’t get the basketball).

The second thing you notice is Favors’ basketball IQ.  Despite being “raw,” Favors seems to know what he is doing with the basketball.  In the four or five games I was able to see, Derrick Favors never looked flustered.  He was comfortable with the basketball and always knew where he wanted to go with it.  He also does the little things.  We already talked about Favors putting his hands up when retreating to his man, but he also runs the floor very well, knows how to properly space out the court, and instinctively chins the basketball when grabbing a rebound, getting those elbows out and preventing defenders from reaching in and stealing it.

Now on the clock is A Wolf Among Wolves, representing the Minnesota Timberwolves.

After Avery Johnson was introduced as the Nets’ head coach, he did a brief interview for the YES Network.  One thing he said especially caught my attention when asked about getting his players to buy-in and play defense (around the 4:00 mark):

“More than anything, we are going to have a system.  The system is going to be laid out from game one.  How we play pick and rolls.  How we function in transition defense.  How we close out, and how we play the post.  There isn’t going to be a gray area.”

I thought it would be fun to look at a few Mavs games from when Avery was coaching them to see what that system is and if the Nets have the players to execute.  We are going to look at a different aspect that Avery mentioned every week, and today we are starting with maybe the most important part of defense in this era of the NBA, the pick and roll defense.

Read more…

He’s looking at you, Rod. Right at you.

News broke today that the Sacramento Kings and the Philadelphia 76ers have agreed to a trade, with Samuel Dalembert heading to the West Coast for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni. Now, normally this would be irrelevant to the Nets & their fan base, but since the draft is now under a week away, and the Nets pick one spot below the Sixers, this could potentially have mass implications:

The Sixers have been deciding whether to select Evan Turner or Derrick Favors with the No. 2 pick. Although Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski is a Turner fan, new coach Doug Collins is high on Favors. With Dalembert gone and Nocioni in, it could push them in the direction of Favors.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5297829

There’s still a good chance that the Sixers will end up taking Turner on draft night, but trading your center – a renowned defensive monster and rebounder extraordinaire – for a decent small forward and a 7-footer who averaged six rebounds per game with little defensive reputation is not a sign that you’re interested in a swingman who replicates the skillset of your best player. You have to think that they’re looking at Favors very closely; the Sixers can’t possibly believe that Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes can handle the frontcourt every night. They’ll get abused on the defensive side of the floor and be one of the worst rebounding tandems in the league. Derrick Favors fits what they need more, and if Doug Collins has any say, he’ll be a 76er. I can even see Favors donning a Sixers cap now & Turner competing with Brook Lopez in the “who has the most ridiculous voice in New Jersey” contest.  (Don’t sleep on this. It’s basically Goofy Andre the Giant vs. Kermit the Frog. I would love to see these guys in a tandem interview.)

Crazy sounds aside, two more wild cards in this:

1) How they view DeMarcus Cousins. They just traded away their center, Cousins could fill that role instantly. If they’re truly enamored with his talent they might also consider him at the #2 spot as well considering his size and skill at rebounding the ball.

2) How badly Minnesota wants to move up. There have been countless reports that Minnesota is trying to trade their #4 and #16 pick for the Sixers second choice, and after this deal it would be hard to pass that up. The Sixers would still get one of the major big talents in this draft (Cousins or Favors after Turner goes to the Timberwolves) plus a bonus pick. The only way that deal falls through is if either side tries to ask for too much, or if the Timberwolves are able to swing a better deal for Al Jefferson or Kevin Love to open up space in the frontcourt.

Basically, the Sixers have just blown the draft (after the Wizards pick) wide open. Anything is possible at this point. I know that I’ve made my opinion very clear that the no-doubt #1 prospect in this draft is John Wall. I also know that I’ve spent far more time than anyone should deconstructing the debate between DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. I also know that I haven’t talked much about Evan Turner (I left that to Dennis). Because of that, let me just go on the record now: if Evan Turner is available at #3, the Nets should take him immediately and start dancing in the war room. The Evan Turner hype has been low; he didn’t measure out as an unbelievable athlete and isn’t flashy or interesting. But let’s be entirely clear: if you had the first pick in an NCAA 5-on-5 game this year, and your life depended on your team winning, you’d take Evan Turner in a heartbeat with that first pick. No question. The guy is an absolute warrior. I have little doubt that barring injury he’ll be a great player for the next dozen years. I’d be ecstatic to see him at the Rock next year.