You Can’t Blame Yi for Everything
I certainly understand why a lot of Nets fans are down on Yi Jianlian, and I’ve certainly taken my fair share of shots at him this season, but I also think people need to be fair and realistic about how much Yi’s individual performances actually affect the team overall. When Yi left Sunday’s game against the Knicks with an ankle injury, there were a few comments about how much better the Nets played once Yi left – never mind the fact that in the first quarter, EVERYONE on the Nets was stinking up the joint, regardless of who was on the floor.
Here are the facts: looking at the simple rating for each player on the Nets roster – which is a statistic found at 82games.com that takes into account the team’s offensive and defensive performance when a specific players is on and off the court – you can determine that Yi does have a negative impact on the team when he plays. However, there are many other players on the roster, who currently get significant minutes, that have a more detrimental effect on the team than Yi.
According to 82games, Yi has played 40 percent of the team’s minutes this season. Yi is putting up a Player Efficiency Rating of 13.8 in those minutes, while opposing players matched up against Yi have a PER of 22.5, good for a differential of -8.7. Meanwhile, when Yi plays, the team’s +/- is -7, and when he’s off the floor, their +/- is -13.4, good for a differential of +6.4. When you add these two differentials together, you get Yi’s simple rating of -2.7.
Yi’s simple rating is sixth best on the Nets roster, which is more of a statement of how bad the Nets are (shocking). Only two players have a positive simple rating, Brook Lopez and Keyon Dooling. The other players ahead of Yi include Courtney Lee, and two players who have a relatively small sample size, Bobby Simmons and Sean Williams.
So that puts Devin Harris (-2.8), Kris Humphries (-3.5), Terrence Williams (-3.7) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (-3.8) all behind Yi in terms of simple rating, meaning the team is overall playing worse when those players are on the court when compared to the team’s performance when Yi is on the floor. Of those four players, I think the one that is most worth picking out for the sake of this post is Humphries. While I’ve been relatively impressed with Hump’s aggressiveness and attitude since he came over from Dallas (and thankful to have him over Najera), these numbers demonstrate that he’s not necessarily a better full-time option at the four than Yi. Just based on some observations, I think Humphries has many of the same issues as Yi – occasionally soft on defense, a penchant for bad shots and inappropriate times – so the section of the fan-base that believes Hump MUST start instead of Yi may want to look at the numbers to determine if it really makes a difference for the Nets.
Nets fans need to go a little easier on Yi. Don’t get me wrong, I still believe the Nets absolutely must upgrade at PF next season and that the Yi as a starter experiment should come to the end. But the Nets aren’t bad solely because of Yi, or even primarily because of Yi. The Nets are bad because they are a bad team, and the 7-wins they’ve accumulate is proof enough that their issues run beyond one player.
Nets on the Net: 3/8/10 Edition
Mar 8, 2010 Chris Douglas-Roberts, Josh Boone, Mikhail Prokhorov, Nets on the Net, Terrence Williams, Yi
In a report by Al Iannazzone, John Calipari, who coached Chris Douglas-Roberts at Memphis, still believes in the former All-American: “At the end of the day,” Calipari said, “I think he’s going to be a guy in the league that plays significant minutes, is a significant player, is a starter on a team that’s doing well. I truly believe that.”
Yi Jianlian will not travel with this team on their four game road trip because of his ankle injury.
Terrence Williams and Josh Boone talk with Fred Kerber about their Big East Championship memories.
NetsDaily begins their series on Mikhail Prokhorov, dubbed “the most interesting man in the world.”
The Nets Power Forward Outage
Mar 2, 2010 Analysis, Josh Boone, Kris Humphries, Yi
With far and away the worst record in the NBA and the league’s worst offense, it’s no surprise that statistically speaking, outside of the center position, that the Nets have been outplayed by their opponents at every spot on the floor this season. However, when looking at season stats for the Nets production by position courtesy of 82games, I was interested by just how poorly the team has performed at the PF position.
Overall, Nets power forwards, which include Yi Jianlian, Kris Humphries, Josh Boone and at the very beginning of the season, Bobby Simmons, have put up a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 11.4 this season, while opposing PFs have a PER of 19.5 against the Nets, good for a differential of -8.1. Not only is this the worst PER differential at the position in the entire league, but only one team, Sacramento comes relatively close in terms of this dubious honor, with a PER differential of -6.4 at the PF position.
For the season, Nets PFs are averaging (per 48 minutes), 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and an effective field goal percentage of .423, while allowing their opponents 22.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, .9 blocks and an eFG of 52 percent. When looking at opponents scoring output for all five positions, the PF average of 22.3 is the highest.
On the plus side, despite conspiracy theorists nicknaming coach Kiki Vandeweghe “Yiki,” Nets PFs are tied with the SF position for fewest field goal attempts on the team with 14.4 per game. So, at least the organization acknowledges the deficiencies at the position by not designing an offense geared towards getting Yi and company more shots.
But what’s most alarming is just how well opposing PFs are playing against the Nets, indicating the team’s defensive issues at the position. While Yi looked impressive on the offensive end when he initially came back from his injury in December, he was still unable to demonstrate any improvement on the defensive end. The same could be said for Kris Humphries, who, with increased playing time in New Jersey, has shown many of the same traits that Nets fans slam Yi for – a propensity to take jump shots at poor times, and poor defense. Opposing PFs are putting up a PER of 22.4, with 26.7 points and an eFG of 59 percent when Humphries are on the floor.
The conclusions that can be drawn from these numbers should be obvious: upgrading at the four has to be a priority for the team this off-season. With free agents-to-be Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer already indicating that they have no desire to play for the Nets, it will be interesting to see how the Nets will go about upgrading the position. But unless the Nets want to continue dealing with a huge deficit at the position next season, the status quo can not be the same. Yi, Boone and Humphries can not get the bulk of the playing time at the four next season, unless the Nets get significantly better at the other four positions to compensate.
Nets on the Net: 3/1/10 Edition
Mar 1, 2010 Devin Harris, Draft, Nets on the Net, Nets vs. Wizards, Yi
Recapping last night’s loss, Al Iannazzone acknowledges the two sides to Yi’s game: It was a bittersweet night for Yi. He was aggressive and a force inside with 20 points and career-best 19 rebounds, but had his usual struggles defensively. He also missed two foul shots in the final 1:19. “I’ve got to hit them,” Yi said. “Could have been different, maybe.”
Newark native Randy Foye explains to Colin Stephenson and the Star-Ledger what most teams must think before they play the Nets: “That’s one thing that we were saying to ourselves before the game,’’ Foye said. “We said, ‘We cannot lose to this team. We know what they’re thinking; we know they think they can beat us, but we’re not going to lose to them.’’’
Julian Garcia has the understatement of the year as to how the Nets may finish out the season: Given their schizophrenic nature, the final six weeks of the season should be interesting.
In Fred Kerber’s recap, Devin Harris admits to a problem that’s been plaguing the Nets all season: “We need to work a little bit more on our zone offense,” Devin Harris said.
Over at the Daily Dime, Chris Sheridan talks with Tony Battie about his possibly buyout: “Honestly, I’m not sure,” Battie told ESPN.com. “I’m going to be professional about it, and whatever happens happens. That’s kind of where I’m going to leave it because I honestly feel that way.
The Bleacher Report writes that Ohio State SF Evan Turner is a better fit for the Nets.
For those who care about that sort of thing, I answered some questions about the Nets over at Truthaboutit, the Wizards TrueHoop blog.
Yi Jianlian: The More Things Change…
Using the naked eye, I think most Nets fans would agree that the 2009-10 version of Yi Jianlian looks like a different player compared to his first two seasons in the NBA. Nets Are Scorching and other writers have noted Yi’s increased muscle mass, his aggressiveness in taking the ball to the rim, and how he’s more of a focal point on offense than ever before. For better or worse, all of these things are different about Yi.
But that’s the funny thing about the naked eye. Sure, it tells you a lot, but it’s also deceiving. Because if you look strictly at Yi’s numbers for this season and exclude his off-the-chart play after returning from injury in December, what you’re left with is a player who’s statistically very similar to the Yi Jianlian of 2008-09, a player, who by most accounts, was a disappointment.
Let’s first establish what’s statistically different about Yi, because I believe when coupled with what’s statistically similar or worse, it paints a very ominous picture about the kind of player the Nets have here. According to Hoopdata, about 44 percent of Yi’s total field goal attempts are coming at 10 feet or less, compared to 29 percent last year – which gives merit to the idea that Yi is taking the ball to the hoop more aggressively, rather than settling for jumpers. Meanwhile, Yi’s usage rate is 19.5 percent, up from 18.5 in 08-09, and his assist ratio is 4.6, way down from last year’s 8.8. In fact, out of 68 power forwards ranked by ESPN, Yi’s assist ratio ranks him 65th.
Here’s what’s more or less the same: Yi shot a putrid 38 percent from the field last season. Taking away his hot restart in December, Yi is shooting the ball at a 37 percent clip in January and February. And while he’s scoring more points and taking more shots than last year, he’s not necessarily doing it more efficiently. His points per 40 minutes last season was 14.8. In January and February, he’s averaging 15.6 points per 40. Here’s something else to keep in mind as the season progresses. His month-to-month field goal percentage and points per game averages look like this: December (4 games, 54 percent shooting, 22.5 ppg); January (14 games, 39 percent shooting, 13.4 ppg); February (4 games, 30 percent shooting, 8.5 ppg). Obviously the small sample sizes of December and February skew those numbers considerably, but it’s not a good sign that Yi’s numbers are on a downward spiral this season considering his history of inconsistency.
Meanwhile, putting together all of the numbers, here are some things we do know about Yi. While he’s more aggressive and taking hypothetically “better” shots closer to the rim, he’s actually shooting the ball at a worse clip than last season. How a player is shooting at a lower percentage despite taking a higher quantity of higher percentage shots is a bit mystifying, but that logic more or less sums up Yi’s career in the NBA.
The question remains what kind of player the Nets have in Yi. Obviously if he could regain his form from December and early January, the front office would likely consider keeping Yi around for the long-term for his offensive talent. But as many predicted, Yi is looking like he’s regressing back to the shoot-too-much, pass-too-little, no defense player of yesteryear. If his game continues in this downward direction, the front office and coach Kiki Vandeweghe have to consider meaningful change for Yi’s role with this team – a change that they should stick with in the long-term, because the polarizing Chinese import is running out of chances to prove he’s really all that different.
The Nets Are Learning How To Win
Feb 1, 2010 Analysis, Kiki, Opinion, Terrence Williams, Yi
I know that “learning to win” is funny to say now that the season is halfway done (especially when we are talking about a 4 win team), but after the Nets past road trip, the Nets were at an all-time low. I mean, look what Mark had to say after the loss at Utah:
As it stands, and I hesitate to say it, but THIS might finally be rock bottom for the 2009-10 Nets. Because if it gets any worse that it’s been the past two games against Utah and the Golden State Warriors, the league should really consider contracting the organization, throwing Bruce Ratner in jail for fraud and blacklisting Rod Thorn and Kiki Vandeweghe from ever having a role with an NBA roster again.
And you know what? I agreed with him, as did just about every single Nets fan. In the past three games though, the INets have been able to keep games close winning 1 and losing 2 by a combined 6 points. With all of the Nets losses this season, none of them have really been close. So what has changed for the Nets? I think that the Nets are now finally playing the type of basketball that will get them wins moving forward (or at least keep the games close).
Switching The Lineup Around
Jan 26, 2010 Advanced Statistics, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Coaching, Jarvis Hayes, Kris Humphries, Roster, Yi
Since the return of Yi, the Nets have had a stable starting lineup (with the exception of the last game – Devin’s wrist injury), but let’s face it. The lineup we have on the court isn’t working right now, and I think that a switch in the starting lineup is well overdue. In my opinion, there are two players you can consider moving to the bench and have them be the new sixth man. Those two players are Yi and Chris Douglas-Roberts. This is because these are the two guys that are “struggling” the most right now. So how are we going to analyze this? Well, in the book Mathletics (a book I highly recommend), Wayne Winston dedicates an entire chapter to analyzing lineups, and we are going to use some of the techniques he uses to see which lineup the Nets should start with.
Nets on the Net: 1/26/10 Edition
Jan 26, 2010 Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Nets on the Net, Trade Rumors, Yi
Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie takes another look at the Kidd-Devin Harris trade: The premise, the ideology, was correct. The Nets won the trade that sent Jason Kidd(notes) to Dallas. They acquired a very good, borderline All-Star, point guard. The enjoyed some payroll relief and pulled in two first-round draft picks. Jason Kidd won’t be playing in a few years, Devin Harris(notes) will be. And he’ll be playing well. They won the deal. Without actually winning anything, though. They won the ideology battle but lost the basketball war. Because after turning in a near All-Star campaign last season, Devin Harris decided to take 2009-10 off.
Dwyer also pegs Brook Lopez as an Eastern Conference All-Star.
Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com profiles Yi Jianlian and his success on the offensive end this season.
If the Nets want Amare Stoudamire, Julian Garcia speculates what the Suns want: The Suns are said to be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief, all of which the Nets could provide.
The “Yi Effect” and Chris Douglas-Roberts
Jan 18, 2010 Analysis, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Yi
Last week, when asked about his the recent decline of his offensive production, Chris Douglas-Roberts cryptically talked about how he was playing within “the system.” What system is CDR talking about? One theory is the “system” in question is the one designed by coach Kiki Vandeweghe that seemingly favors Yi Jianlian anchoring the offense.
This is fact. Of the six primary rotational players used by the Nets – Yi, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, CDR and Keyon Dooling – Yi Jianlian is leading the team in field goal attempts with 14.09 per game since he returned from injury in December. So clearly, these field goal attempts are coming at the expense of somebody else’s shots. Earlier this month, we looked at Yi’s affect on Brook Lopez, but with CDR’s recent talk of the “system,” we thought it was better to look at all six players to determine who’s shot total has been hindered the most by a Yi-centric offense.
For this analysis, we’ve broken the season into two parts, from 11/21/09 to 12/19/09 – the period where Devin Harris returned after missing three weeks with a groin injury, and then 12/23/09 to present, when Yi returned from his knee injury. Looking at shot selection before 11/21 would be futile, because the Nets were so decimated by injuries, so many players who otherwise would be buried on the end of the bench were getting playing time, skewing the overall numbers.
Also consider during these periods, CDR missed a few games with assorted injuries, and Courtney Lee was buried on Lawrence Frank’s bench until he was fired and replaced with Kiki.
Here’s the tally:
Nets on the Net: 1/17/10 Edition
Jan 17, 2010 Brooklyn, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Devin Harris, Kris Humphries, Nets on the Net, Trenton Hassell, Yi
The Boston Globe calls Chris Douglas-Roberts the Michael Jordan of NBA Tweets for his usage of the Twitter platform.
Dave D’Alessandro reports that the Nets are happy with some of the early activity of Kris Humphries: “I’ve known him since college, and I always followed him in Toronto and Utah and Dallas,” fellow Big-10’er Devin Harris said. “He’s really a great guy. And he’s going to surprise people — he’s strong, solid, and aggressive, which any team needs. You play him a lot, he gets you double-digits.”
It’s amazing how at 3-36, the Nets are still trying to determine why they can’t find any consistency: “I think we get frustrated on offense and it affects our defense sometimes,” Hassell said. “When shots aren’t falling we need to play tougher defense. We get down on ourselves offensively when they’re not falling, and then the lapse happens on defense.”
A profile of Marco Glorious, who has the unfortunate job title of being the hype man for the Nets.
More Atlantic Yards protests at Freddy’s Bar.