Nets Are Scorching

Sure enough, basketball exists… for one more year in Newark, anyway.

The Nets start Deron Williams, Anthony Morrow, Damion James, Kris Humphries, and Johan Petro, and Avery cautioned that the lineup out there tonight may not be the one that starts tomorrow against Atlanta.

They’ll go up against the Washington Wizards in Washington, and to help us answer a few questions we’ve asked Kyle Weidle of Truth About It to join us in our pregame 3-on-3.

1. First order of business: How do you stop John Wall?

• Justin DeFeo: Not sure if you stop John Wall entirely, but the Nets can make him less effective by finding him early in transition and slowing him before he gets a full head of steam, and sagging off him, daring him to make jump shots. At the risk of sounding cliché, however, no one man can stop John Wall. Our army of point guards will do their best to slow him, but it’s going to take a team effort to truly contain him.
  

• Devin Kharpertian: John’s court vision, quickness, and speed separate him from the average into the freakish. Luckily, he’s not surrounded by great off-ball players, so the primary way to contain him is packing the paint with anyone and forcing him into beating you with his midrange game. Wall only shot 29.5% from 10-23 feet last year, so if they can keep him in that area, they’ll have a shot at keeping him under wraps.
  

• Kyle Weidle, Truth About It: The best way to stop Wall is to not allow the Wizards to get out and run. This may mean less offensive rebound opportunities for New Jersey, but maybe that’s okay with Brook Lopez out. Otherwise, continue to go under the screen against Wall — the temptation could lead to bad shots for Washington’s offense. And if New Jersey does find themselves defending against Wall’s transition run, communication is key, as is keeping an eye on passing lanes to corner threes.
  

2. Second order of business: Can the Nets compete inside?

• Justin DeFeo: Quite possibly our question of the year. Once you get past Kris Humphries, our interior players are either of the backup quality (Shelden Williams, Petro), undersized (Damion James, Shawne Williams), unproven (Dennis Horner, Jordan Williams) or coming off injury (Mehmet Okur). While Washington isn’t overwhelming inside, Blatche, McGee and Turiaf are true professionals, and will probably have a slight edge inside.
  

• Devin Kharpertian: Yes, but, no. Mehmet Okur can’t contain Javale McGee, as Okur is not a helicopter, but luckily McGee’s pretty good at mentally containing himself. Humphries has physical and talent advantages over Blatche and Turiaf if he’s at full strength. Of course, when the backups come in, the story switches entirely.
  

• Kyle Weidle: I’m afraid without Lopez to make JaVale McGee work on both ends of the floor, New Jersey could be in trouble. There is simply no one on the Nets roster who can compete with his athleticism and length, especially when it comes to lobs from John Wall. The best hope is for someone to get physical with McGee to the point where he falls too much in love with rushed post moves and the interesting hook shot he is trying to develop.
  

3. Final order of business: who emerges victorious?

• Justin DeFeo: The Nets. Why not? First game of the season after an extended off-season, and both teams are trying to fit in new pieces without lots of practice time to really smooth things out. It’s going to be a funky beginning of the season to say the least, and will be that way until things even out as the season progresses. The Nets have the best player in this game (Deron Williams), and he’ll put forth enough of an effort to get the Nets the W tonight.
  
  
• Devin Kharpertian: I’m full of optimism today, so let’s keep that train moving and say New Jersey. Sure, the Nets don’t have Brook Lopez, but neither do the Wizards! If Okur’s at full strength, he’ll stretch McGee out of the paint, opening up a huge hole inside for James and D-Will to get buckets. Plus, Anthony Morrow can’t go 0-10 again, right? … Right?
  
  
• Kyle Weidle: With Lopez out, it’s Washington’s game to win, even though the Wizards looked very bad, and then okay-ish in two preseason games against the Philadelphia 76ers (who, give them credit, are a very decent team). Deron Williams is certainly capable of carrying New Jersey coming off strong performances toward the end of his run in Turkey, but he also didn’t have to check anyone like Wall over there either.

On Sunday, the Nets take on the Wizards in the nation’s capital in a matinee game at 1 PM eastern. Coming off Friday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, in what was a pathetic defensive performance, the Nets look to bounce back as the season begins to wind down:

Coping Without Deron Williams: Deron Williams might not be shut down for the season just yet, as the team continues to weigh options with regard to its dealings with his ailing wrist, but he’s unlikely to play Sunday against the Wizards. As a result, the Nets are going to have difficulty defensively with John Wall. Expect that Sundiata Gaines will earn increased minutes over Jordan Farmar, both because of his inspiring play recently and also because of his athleticism, which bodes well in dealing with Wall’s explosiveness.

Brook Lopez’s Improvement: The Wizards’ frontcourt is fairly pathetic, as Javale McGee and Andray Blatche are not much of a formidable tandem (Rashard Lewis continues to sit out with an injured knee). As a result, expect Brook Lopez to have a standout game on the offensive end, taking advantage of the youth and inexperience of McGee and Blatche. Without Williams in the lineup, offensive excellence from Lopez will be key to a Nets’ win.

After all, It’s the Wizards: There haven’t been many games this season in which the Nets have been favored. This is one of them. The Wizards are flat-out terrible, even when they play in the Verizon Center, and the Nets should come in the mindset that nothing but a win is acceptable. Sure, Wall and Nick Young provide a formidable scoring punch in the backcourt, but aside from that, there are very few redeeming qualities for Washington’s team. If the Nets can play even average basketball, they will likely come away with a win on the road.

I’ve been thinking a lot about Devin Harris lately.

A couple of weeks ago, Rob Mahoney wrote a piece for the New York Times that called Devin Harris “invisible,” lauding Harris as a “fantastic” player, but not a dominant one (which is rightfully meant as a compliment). Mahoney continues to assert that he’s having a great year, but is restricted by exterior factors like playing time, being on the Nets, and being nearly 28 years old.

I’d go one step further: There is no other point guard in the NBA like Devin Harris. That’s not meant as an insult, nor is it a compliment. It’s just the truth.

He’s an outcast.

He’s not good enough to be in the elite (Paul, Williams) but not an afterthought (Ridnour, Sessions). He’s too old to be a part of the “young point guard” wave (Rose, Westbrook, Wall, Holiday, Augustin, Jennings, Collison, Lowry, Conley), but hasn’t been in the league long enough to be a true veteran (Nash, Billups, Kidd, Parker, Davis). He relies too much on his speed & quickness to be primarily a half-court distributor (Miller, Bibby, Calderon), but he’s too good of a creator and too poor a shooter to be secretly a combo guard (Curry, Udrih). He’s not playing there to be intentionally unorthodox (McGrady). He’s not a big piece of a great team (Rondo, Nelson, Felton), or a small one (Fisher, Arroyo/Chalmers).

This leaves Harris – a lightning-fast point guard with second-tier skills, essentially in his prime, on a bad team. Not an up-and-comer, but not a grizzled vet. A guy bursting with talent, but at the peak of his trajectory, not scratching the surface of it.

In a weird way, he was (is) ahead of his time – but not in the positive context that we normally use that term. He hit his stride just barely in the wrong era. If Harris were five years younger and putting up these numbers with this style of play, he’d be an untouchable cornerstone of the franchise, just a step below Rose & Westbrook on the “PG of the Future” scale. But instead, the soon-to-be 28-year-old is, outside of rookie Derrick Favors and expiring zombie Troy Murphy, the most tradeable asset the Nets have.

This leaves me with one big, giant, gaping question: How long will Devin Harris be in a Nets uniform? The Nets were certainly ready to say goodbye to him had the ping-pong balls fell their way last May. He’s been consistently mentioned in multiple iterations of the now-defunct Carmelo Anthony deal. The Nets value him, but as an asset as much as a player. The constant rumors have likely been affecting him, as his scoring this season has trended steadily downwards – from 17.5 points per game on 46% shooting in November to just 12.1 and 35% in January, and in February he’s made just thirteen shots in four games. On all too many occasions, he seems disheartened or disinterested. It’s a total code switch from where he started.

I don’t know about you guys, but I remember his first game as a Net, and I was beyond excited for the Devin Harris era. Against Milwaukee in 2008, DH made his first six shots and rode his strong start to twenty-one points, five assists, and one big dunk on Andrew Bogut in just 20 minutes. He also made three-pointers, following it up with four in the next game, and made the post-Kidd era much more palatable.

Three years later, we have a much fuller picture of Harris’ skillset. He’s far from the long-distance marksman I envisioned, instead primarily a slasher who draws contact to get his points. He uses those draw-in skills to find open shooters on the wings or float alley-oops to Brook Lopez. He’s got quick hands and feet and uses them well on the defensive end, although not consistently. Basketball is a game of constant deception, and while he’s not mentioned in that article Harris similarly uses his lateral quickness and fakes to fool defenders. He’s the second-best player on a team that’s 16-37 and heading to the lottery for the fourth straight year. Given his play style, he likely has just two or three more prime years. He, weirdly, has no equal.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s not that Devin Harris is a bad point guard, or is having a bad year. He’s not. He’s has been distributing as well as ever, and it shows: he’s fourth in the NBA in assist percentage with a career-high 43.5%. His player efficiency rating is the second-highest of his career, behind only his all-star season of 2008-2009. His scoring turns the wheels of victory, averaging 18.5 points in Nets wins and leading the Nets to a 7-3 record when he scores 21 points or more. I mentioned previously that he’s the second-best player on the Nets, but he is the best on many nights (although last night was certainly not one of those times).

It’s that, because of his age, his team, and exterior factors outside of his control, nothing he does anymore leaps off the page. Too young to be a vet, too old to be the future.

He just doesn’t fit in.

The Nets (10-25) and the Wizards (8-25) meet in DC tonight for a rematch from a game late in December where the Nets took care of the Wiz, 97-89. The Wizards were without John Wall that night, and he should be playing tonight, though that was also before the Gilbert Arenas trade. Here are a couple of things to look for:

Don’t be Momentum Killers: The Nets are coming off what may be their finest win of the season on Wednesday against the Chicago Bulls. They were up, nearly lost it, fought off a better team and came away with the win on a putback with about 5 seconds left from Sasha Vujacic. If the Nets have taught me anything this year, it’s that they’re only as good as their latest game.  This is a team they should beat on paper. But will they?

Beware of Role Players: John Wall is the household name on Washington, but the two guys I think will have the biggest impact offensively are Nick Young and Andray Blatche. Young had 22 points the first time these teams met, while Blatche was inactive, but has a history of torching the Nets.

Stop With the Fouls: Derrick Favors can score and rebound in the NBA. I think that much is clear. The problem is he can’t stay on the floor long enough. His first NBA start was marred with four fouls in under 10 minutes. It’s all part of the learning curve, yes, but he’s got to demonstrate more discipline than this. I think he should play with the starting lineup for the rest of the season (or until he’s traded) but this is an area where he needs to start demonstrating improvement soon, regardless.

Did the Nets make the right call?

Now that the Nets are 24 games into the season, I think we’re at the point in which we can compare “what is” with “what could have been.” I’m talking, of course,  about the NBA Draft, and how differently it could have gone down for every team (except Washington) in the top five picks.

As far as anyone can tell, for the third pick the Nets had four players on their radar: Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, DeMarcus Cousins, and current Net Derrick Favors. For their late-round selection, they traded Jordan Crawford and the 31st pick (which became the rights to Tibor Pleiss) for 24th pick Damion James. This leads to two questions:

1) What if Atlanta had decided against the Crawford/31 for James swap?

Jordan Crawford, who on draft night was the darling of many Nets fans, fell into Rod Thorn’s lap with the 27th pick. While Crawford is still best known for dunking on LeBron James, he also showed off deep range at Xavier, averaging 20 points per game on 46% shooting (39% from 3). Crawford also has pretty form and a scorer’s mentality. However, that mentality hasn’t really translated to NBA success yet. He hasn’t been effective when in the game, shooting only 38% from the field in just 101 minutes (9 games) of play. Crawford entered an Atlanta Hawks team that was already deep in the backcourt, and as a result he’s been somewhat buried in the bench. With the recent Joe Johnson injury, you’d expect his play time to increase, but he’s been a DNP-CD since November 28th – before the injury.

Before his foot injury, James had also struggled early in his NBA career. While he was a leader at Texas – improving steadily each year & averaging a double-double his senior year – he’s clearly still in the midst of an adjustment period. While he’s played more than double Crawford’s minutes, James is only shooting a paltry 35% from the floor – and despite shooting 38% from 3 his senior year at Texas, has only attempted two (and made none) from beyond the arc this season. He’s shown flashes of talent, dropping 30 points in a summer league game, and despite his struggles was able to steal the starting small forward spot from Travis Outlaw (who, to be fair, is struggling more than anyone these days).

Also, while there’s no telling who the Nets might have taken with the 31st pick, a quick look at players taken in that range reveals a verifiable list of no-shows and nobodies. Only Landry Fields has been a consistent rotation player, and the Knicks shocked everyone with that pick. The Nets wouldn’t have taken him.

The Final Verdict: While Crawford does have a nice shooting touch, James brings a more diverse skillset to the floor and fills a bigger need for this team. While the foot injury sucks, once he’s healed and ready to go I’m confident that he’ll produce.

2) How would the Nets look with any of the other four players they could have gotten in the top three?

Ha! You thought this was just going to be another Favors vs. Cousins debate, didn’t you? Truth be told, the Nets could have ended up with any one of the non-Wall top 5, even though the battle was clearly between DeMarcus Cousins & Derrick Favors. If the Sixers ended up taking Favors second, the Nets would have ended up with Evan Turner. If the Nets softened on Favors at the last second, both Johnson and Cousins fit what the Nets needed, and the Nets were rumored to be highly interested in both (although the interest in Johnson didn’t fool us at NAS – both Sebastian and I agreed that it was a bad idea & seemed more like a smokescreen than anything else).

However, a little over a quarter-way through the season, here’s how the big four stack up (leader in bold):

Per Game

Evan Turner – 6.9 PTS, 4.5 (0.3-4.2) REB, 2.0 AST, 0.2 BLK, 1.3 TOV, 0.421 FG%, 0.167 3P%, 0.739 FT%, 24.9 MIN

Derrick Favors – 6.5 PTS, 5.3 (2.0-3.3) REB, 0.1 AST, 0.6 BLK, 1.0 TOV, 0.543 FG%, 0.600 FT%, 18.7 MIN

Wesley Johnson: 9.1 PTS, 3.4 (1.0-2.4) REB, 2.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 1.6 TOV, 0.433 FG%, 0.380 3P%, 0.636 FT%, 28.8 MIN

DeMarcus Cousins - 11.0 PTS, 6.8 (2.4-4.4) REB, 1.2 AST, 0.5 BLK, 2.2 TOV, 0.396 FG%, 0.143 3P%, 0.674 FT%, 24.0 MIN

All four are rotation players, but Johnson is the only one who’s officially staked a claim as a starter throughout the season, as he’s started in 20 of 24 games. Favors is the only one who has not started.

Looking at the raw per-game numbers, they look somewhat even – Cousins & Johnson appear to have the biggest edge. Let’s look deeper. Per 36 minutes, Cousins is averaging 15 shots, 7 free throw attempts, and 3 turnovers – an awful lot of usage for a rookie. Truthfully, he’s leading all true rookies in usage rate, which is how he’s able to put up higher scoring numbers despite shooting poorly from the field. Johnson is the opposite – his numbers look higher solely because of his increased playing time. He actually has one of the lowest usage rates among all qualified rookies – 22nd out of the 26. Evan Turner, on the other hand, has just been awful.

As a result, while the raw figures produced by Cousins & Johnson look more impressive, when digging a little deeper you see it’s just a façade. As mentioned before on this site (and many others), the best way to look at individual efficiency is to look at more advanced analytics, which is what I’ll use here. For any explanations, refer to the awesome glossary over at Basketball-Reference. Again, leaders in bold.

Advanced

Evan Turner – 0.478 TS%, 0.428 eFG%, 1.6 ORB%, 19.3 DRB%, 11.9 AST%, 0.7 BLK%, 15.4 TOV%, 93 ORtg, 15.7 USG%, 0.4 WS, 0.035 WS/48, 8.8 PER

Derrick Favors – 0.571 TS%, 0.543 eFG%, 12.3 ORB%, 21.4 DRB%, 1.2 AST%, 2.5 BLK%, 14.3 TOV%, 109 ORtg, 16.9% USG, 1.0 WS, 0.107 WS/48, 13.9 PER

Wesley Johnson – 0.525 TS%, 0.510 eFG%, 3.6 ORB%, 9.7 DRB%, 10.3 AST%, 1.8 BLK%, 15.4 TOV%, 103 ORtg, 14.9 USG%, 0.4 WS, 0.026 WS/48, 9.3 PER

DeMarcus Cousins – 0.457 TS%, 0.399 eFG%, 10.6 ORB%, 22.3 DRB%, 8.5 AST%, 1.6 BLK%, 15.4 TOV%, 92 ORtg, 26.1 USG%, 0.0 WS, 0.002 WS/48, 11.8 PER

TS% – True Shooting Percentage
eFG% – Effective FG%
ORB% – Offensive Rebound Rate
DRB% – Defensive Rebound Rate
AST% – Assist Rate
BLK% – Block Rate
TOV% – Turnover Rate
ORtg – Offensive Rating (Points produced per 100 possessions) (league average – 106.7)
USG% – Usage Rate (average NBA player – 20.0)
WS – Win Shares
WS/48 – Win Shares per 48 minutes (average NBA player = 0.100)
PER – John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (average NBA player – 15.0)

Amazing what a more thorough look can uncover, huh? Despite his lack of playing time, Favors statistically outranks every other player the Nets could have taken in the top 5, even though he’s by far the youngest of the four (Wesley Johnson is the old man at 23). He’s never been accused of being a great passer – and he’ll need to work on that – but he finishes strong at the hoop, is a tenacious rebounder, blocks a decent amount of shots for a rookie, and has overall had a much bigger impact in his limited minutes than the other rookies. Favors is also doing all of this while enduring bumps in the road; he’s the youngest player in the NBA and has had his name stirring the “Carmelo Anthony to the Nets” pot since draft night.

The Final Verdict: When David Thorpe did a re-draft earlier this week, he called Favors the no-doubt #2 selection in this draft, and after doing the research I 100% agree. Between Evan Turner’s shocking struggles (seriously, thank goodness the Sixers took him second), Wesley Johnson’s lack of upside, and DeMarcus Cousins’ inefficiency & need to dominate possessions (not to mention headbutting with management), I’m very happy with our selection. Favors has both skyscraping upside and has effectively executed his role in limited time. Kris Humphries has been better than advertised in his starting role, but as Favors continues to develop, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him starting very soon.

So as my introductory piece, I’d like to do a re-post. Some of you have likely already seen this on the popular SBNation subsidiary NetsDaily – I originally posted it under my NetsDaily username Newark2Brooklyn. It elicited a fair amount of discussion once it was put on their front page. I wrote this before Thorn said he’d take Wall with the first pick, and it was partly a response to the Wall-Turner debate that was going on there. Some people agreed with my assessment completely, others were the exact opposite. I usually consider that a good sign.

Glad to be writing for NetsAreScorching, and rest assured, mostly everything else I write will be less than half this length.

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